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2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

7. The European Debt Crisis

verfasst von : Victor A. Beker

Erschienen in: Modern Financial Crises

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This paper shows that data do not fully endorse most of the common explanations for the European debt crisis. A distinction is made between a first group of countries whose debt problems have roots before 2007 but did not worsen significantly after that year and a second one of “new” highly indebted countries. Finally, Spain appears as a special case. The development of the indebtedness process in these three different types of countries allows isolating the factors which were determinant in each case. The conclusion is that the European indebtedness process does not accept a unique explanation and that its solution will necessarily require resource transfers from the richer to the poorer countries of the Eurozone.

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Fußnoten
1
In fact, in 2004, Eurostat had already revealed that the statistics for the budget deficit had been underreported at the time Greece was accepted into the European Monetary Union in 2000. According to Eurostat, the 1999 deficit was 3.4 % of GDP instead of the originally reported 1.8 %.
 
2
Moro (2014) characterizes the European crisis as a sequence of interactions between sovereign problems and banking problems. Véron (2012) adds that the situation is best described as twin sovereign and banking crises that mutually feed each other.
 
4
According to Moro (2014), “the current European crisis can be directly traced back to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, which spilled over into a sovereign debt crisis in several euro area countries in early 2010”.
 
5
See, for example, Feldstein (2012).
 
6
Moro (2014) stresses the role that mispricing of risk by financial markets played in the European financial crisis.
 
7
As Hungary is not a member of the Eurozone, the Maastricht criteria were not mandatory for it.
 
8
The Cyprus banking crisis is a special case, mainly the result of the Greek sovereign debt haircut, although it has something in common with Iceland’s case.
 
9
Notwithstanding its noncompliance with the Maastricht debt standard, Greece was admitted with the argument that it was expected to be making progress over time toward that goal.
 
10
The opposite happens, of course, in the case of a revaluation of the local currency.
 
11
The exchange rate between dollar and euro was, in October 2000, 0.85 $/€ and reached in April 2008 1.60 $/€, an appreciation of 88 %.
 
12
Abell (1990), Bachman (1992), Piersanti (2000), Leachman and Francis (2002), Cavallo (2005), and Erceg and Guerrieri (2005).
 
13
Anoruo and Ramchander (1998), Khalid and Teo (1999), and Alkswani (2000).
 
14
Miller and Russek (1989), Dewald and Ulan (1990), Enders and Lee (1990), and Kim (1995).
 
15
Mukhtar et al. (2007) and Islam (1998).
 
16
The role of structural imbalances in the European crisis, reflected by high current account deficits of the periphery countries and matching surpluses in core countries, is extensively discussed in Moro (2014). See also Chap. 5.
 
17
I refer here to the specific consequences of joining the euro, which are independent of those following the EU integration to make up for which there were significant resource transfers, particularly through structural funds.
 
18
Sinn (2013) mentions that, according to a Goldman Sachs study, relative prices in Greece have to come down between 25 and 35 % to achieve external debt sustainability.
 
19
Indeed, throughout the entire democratic period following the 1974 revolution, Portugal never had a surplus in the state budget.
 
20
Altogether, 15 % of mortgage payments are deductible from personal income taxes in Spain.
 
21
GCEE (2011, third chapter, 107).
 
22
Parello and Visco (2012, 5–8).
 
23
See Kaiser (2013) for a discussion of the arguments on the comparability of the London agreement with current debt relief operations.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
The European Debt Crisis
verfasst von
Victor A. Beker
Copyright-Jahr
2016
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20991-3_7