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It presents a new approach to set fish quota based on holistic ecosystem modeling (the CoastWeb-model) and also a plan to optimize a sustainable management of the Baltic Sea including a cost-benefit analysis. This plan accounts for the production of prey and predatory fish under different environmental conditions, professional fishing, recreational fishing and fish cage farm production plus an analysis of associated economic values. Several scenarios and remedial strategies for Baltic Sea management are discussed and an "optimal" strategy motivated and presented, which challenges the HELCOM strategy that was accepted by the Baltic States in November 2007. The strategy advocated in this book would create more than 7000 new jobs, the total value of the fish production would be about 1600 million euro per year plus 1000 million euro per year related to the willingness-to-pay to combat the present conditions in the Baltic Sea. Our strategy would cost about 370 million euro whereas the HELCOM strategy would cost about 3100 million euro per year. The "optimal" strategy is based on a defined goal - that the water clarity in the Gulf of Finland should return to what it was 100 years ago.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction, Background and Aim

Abstract
During the last decades there has been a steadily increasing flow of reports on declining and even collapsed fisheries in many parts of the world (e.g., Myers and Worm, 2005), from the well known cod disaster along the Canadian Atlantic coast, the well documented fishery problems in the Black Sea (Zaitsev and Mamaev, 1997) to the overfishing in the Baltic Sea and the Kattegat/Skagerrak (see, e.g., FAO, 2003; IBSFC, 2003). These problems have also been discussed intensively in the media, at environmental authorities at local, regional and national levels, and certainly not least among the general public. An excellent book on these matters has been published in Swedish by Isabella Lövdin (2007; Tyst hav; Silent Sea). Another example of the interest in this problem is that 50 million euro have been donated by an industrialist (Björn Carlsson; see http://​www.​balticsea2020.​com/​) and a trust has been established to use this money to try to “save” the Baltic Sea. It is evident that the general public, most politicians, many environmental managers and scientists are convinced that many parts of the Baltic Sea are in a deplorable state, with increasing extension of “dead bottom areas” (Jonsson, 1992), major regime shifts (Swedish Environmental Advisory Council, 2005; Wulff, 2006), increasing blooms of toxic algae (see the HELCOM website) and increasing anthropogenic eutrophication and that these problems add to the problems with the intensive fishing. Our results in this book are meant to give an honest quantitative picture of the situation in the Baltic Sea related to the fish production potential. This should help to produce a more solid scientific base for discussions on how to set fish quota and adjust those to changes in salinity, temperature, nutrient loading and especially related to different remedial actions and strategies and what to expect from various actions.
Lars Håkanson, Henrik Ragnarsson Stabo, Andreas C. Bryhn

Chapter 2. Basic Information on the Baltic Sea

Abstract
The size and form of a given aquatic system, i.e., the morphometry, influences the way in which the system functions, since the depth-characteristics influence resuspension and internal loading of nutrients, the nutrient concentrations regulate the primary production, which in turn regulates the secondary production, including zooplankton and fish (see Håkanson and Boulion, 2002a).
Lars Håkanson, Henrik Ragnarsson Stabo, Andreas C. Bryhn

Chapter 3. The CoastWeb-Model – Structures and Set-Up

Abstract
The aim of this chapter is to present the basic structure of the CoastWeb-model. Most of the structures and equations for the coastal version of the model are the same as for the LakeWeb-model (see Håkanson and Boulion, 2002a), but there are also differences related to the transformation of a lake model to a model for the entire Baltic Sea. It is certainly important which organisms and processes are accounted for in models of this kind, and it is equally important to explain and motivate how this is done. To keep the text short and to the point, we will present a series of overview figures. We will also discuss how the CoastWeb-model differs from other seemingly similar models.
Lars Håkanson, Henrik Ragnarsson Stabo, Andreas C. Bryhn

Chapter 4. Modeling of the Different Functional Groups

Abstract
The aim of this chapter can be stated in one short and simple sentence: It is to present all details related to the understanding and modeling of all functional groups of organisms in the CoastWeb-model. It is, however, difficult to make this presentation short and simple, but we will try.
Lars Håkanson, Henrik Ragnarsson Stabo, Andreas C. Bryhn

Chapter 5. Strategies for Remediation, Cost-Benefit Analyses and a Holistic Management Plan for the Baltic Sea

Abstract
This chapter will present several scenarios, which are meant to focus on key problems related to sustainable Baltic Sea management. The last scenario will put many of the results in this book together and discuss a management plan for the Baltic Sea, which also includes a cost-benefit analysis. The first scenario is similar to the one presented by Håkanson and Bryhn (2008b). It concerns a strategy to find an “optimal” abatement plan to reduce the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Anthropogenic nutrient emissions have seriously altered the trophic state of the Baltic Sea, and our optimal strategy in Sect. 5.1 defines a goal for the remedial actions and presents a realistic avenue to reach that goal.
Lars Håkanson, Henrik Ragnarsson Stabo, Andreas C. Bryhn

Backmatter

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