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Über dieses Buch

Diverse as they are in their histories and in the organization of their forest sectors, most Nordic countries have this in common: their economies and cultures are substantially based on the utilization of various forest resources. This book explores Nordic forest futures and presents research results that form part of a scientific foundation for considering how to balance the functions of forests. It is particularly concerned with global trends that may affect the future use of boreal forests.

Chapters investigate inter-alia the growing world population and the expected economic growth in countries with huge populations, and assess the resulting pressure on all land-based resources. Authors examine the urgent need for solutions to the energy crisis, consider worrying climate scenarios and provide a global outlook on bioenergy futures. Readers will discover how these developments will and must influence long-term strategic decisions on the future use of Nordic forests. The challenges and possible responses for future forest governance and forestry issues emerge, as the chapters go on to consider the multiple pressures in particular on the Swedish Forestry Model, among other themes.

“By bringing together a distinguished group of internationally renowned scientists representing a diverse set of disciplines covering political science, geography, rural development, forest economics, history, and geo-sciences, this book constitutes an exceptionally profound and thoughtful futures study.” – Alexander Buck, Executive Director, International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Nordic Forest Futures – An Introduction

Abstract
This book focuses on how global trends are likely to affect the future use of Nordic forests. The aim is to contribute to a broad debate about future Nordic forest management. The book invites professionals in the forest sector, civil society organizations and decision makers to be part of a dialog about the opportunities, challenges, and trade-offs associated with future forest use. The book is produced within the Future Forests Research Program (www.​futureforests.​se), a major cross-disciplinary research effort to address future Swedish forest use in the light of climate change and an increasing demand for forest-related products and services.
Karin Beland Lindahl, Erik Westholm, Florian Kraxner

Chapter 2. Futures Studies in the Field of Natural Resources

Abstract
This chapter reflects on futures studies and the role that “the future” plays in social and economic transformations. The aim of the chapter is to go into some detail on the history of futures studies, with emphasis on the futures envisaged in the forest sector and in the field of the environment since the 1950s. It situates the role of the “future” in today’s environmental debate referring to dialogs that have taken place between productivist and environmental discourses.
Erik Westholm

Chapter 3. Future Forest Trends: Can We Build on Demographically Based Forecasts?

Abstract
The question addressed in this chapter is: can a simple model that relates income growth to demographic change contribute to an understanding of the challenges that the forestry sector will be facing in the coming decades? Per capita income is interesting because of its impact on the ecological footprints of various societies. The exact relationship between per capita income and energy demand, raw material use, or various types of consumption can shift over time, but this does not change the fact that per capita income growth is a major factor underlying many social and environmental trends. Looking more closely at how income growth correlates with demographic change, therefore, provides a good starting point for discussing future forest trends. An income forecast as such does not constitute a forest scenario but will indicate the important future trends very likely to influence future forest scenarios.
Bo Malmberg

Chapter 4. Global Trends and Possible Future Land Use

Abstract
This chapter explores the future global need for land by investigating four trends that drive global land use change: future energy demand; future food demand; future demand for various forest products; and climate change. These trends affect land use competition, food prices, and deforestation rates, and they interact with each other in complex ways that are difficult to foresee. In this chapter, a number of trends, their interactions, and possible implications are discussed on the basis of available scenarios and estimates. The chapter ends with a discussion of how global land use changes might influence the conditions for future Nordic forest management and forest sector transition.
Sten Nilsson

Chapter 5. Bioenergy Futures: A Global Outlook on the Implications of Land Use for Forest-Based Feedstock Production

Abstract
Preservation of biodiversity and reduction of deforestation are considered to be key elements whenever an increased use of bioenergy in the future is addressed. This chapter presents different scenarios to 2050 for global feedstock supply for the production of bioenergy under specified social and environmental safeguard provisions. The scenarios were developed through the application of an integrated global modeling cluster; they show that biomass for bioenergy will, to a large extent, be sourced from the conversion of unmanaged forest into managed forest, from new fast-growing short-rotation plantations, and from intensification of land use. Depending on the underlying scenario, zero net deforestation by 2020 might be reached and upheld with only a minor expansion into managed forests. Results further indicate that with rising populations and projected consumption levels, there may not be enough land to simultaneously conserve natural areas completely, halt forest loss, and switch to 100 % renewable energy, which will make difficult trade-offs necessary. Future food and energy demands would lead to acute land competition and increased pressure on agricultural land and water resources. Managed boreal forests are likely be an important source for bioenergy feedstock and, especially in the tropical regions, it is important to achieve a controlled conversion from unmanaged to sustainably managed forest as well as increased protection of areas for biodiversity.
Florian Kraxner, Eva-Maria Nordström

Chapter 6. Future Forest Governance: Multiple Challenges, Diverging Responses

Abstract
This chapter analyzes the implications of current global trends in forest governance, where increased complexity is leading to the emergence of new conflicts over common-good values between various interests, and to the emergence of new policy instruments and alliances. However, with such multilevel and polycentric policymaking developing in parallel with growing neoliberal economic agendas worldwide, the degree of sustainable management outcomes in forest governance remains highly dependent on strong states and leadership, not least through the European Union to ensure civil society accountability and to counteract asymmetric power relationships.
Katarina Eckerberg

Chapter 7. Climate-Related Forest Policies and Trends

Abstract
As part of the carbon cycle, forests have a place in climate-related forest policies and trends. By describing forest-related measures driven by international climate negotiations, such as the afforestation and reforestation under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), or the voluntary carbon market, this chapter illustrates how carbon has become an important but fuzzy commodity. The demand for carbon-focused measures is also seen in suggested activities in the Swedish context, shown with the Arctic Boreal Climate Development (ABCD) project. It can be said that due perhaps to the complexity involved in quantifying and accounting for carbon, other benefits such as energy substitution or improved hydrology from carbon-improving management strategies are being enhanced in the debate.
Madelene Ostwald

Chapter 8. Actors’ Perceptions and Strategies: Forests and Pathways to Sustainability

Abstract
This chapter discusses how the future is handled by actors in the present. It investigates how actors’ perceptions of the future—its challenges and its opportunities—influence their strategies and actions. The chapter starts with a frame analysis exploring the visions of a range of actors relevant to Swedish forest sector development. It aims to describe major divisions in the debate on future forest use and on a variety of ways to deal with uncertainty, ambiguity, and ignorance. The analysis relates to international processes important to the Swedish forest sector and feeds into a discussion of competing pathways to “sustainability”.
Karin Beland Lindahl

Chapter 9. Transition of the Canadian Forest Sector

Abstract
This chapter examines how Canada is trying to transform the current structure of its forest sector. The Canadian transition is somewhat similar to that of Sweden. Thus, the measures taken by Canada, though differing in many particulars from the Swedish efforts, are also considered as potential “lessons learned” from a Swedish perspective. The forest sectors of the northern hemisphere are undergoing dramatic structural changes as a result of stagnation or decline in the traditional developed economy markets and rapid market growth in the emerging economies. The conditions for the economically sustainable production of industrial forest products are changing rapidly worldwide.
Sten Nilsson

Chapter 10. Dilemmas in Forest Policy Development—The Swedish Forestry Model Under Pressure

Abstract
This chapter brings back the discussion to the Swedish situation and describes the forest policy dilemmas related to a transition of forest governance. The expected transition implies a shift in forest policy and practice in developed countries with a reduced “emphasis on timber production relative to the provision of environmental goods and services”. The chapter describes a number of dilemmas and concludes that Swedish forestry policy has not managed to handle the gap between key stakeholders. Now this gap seems too wide to expect any joint contribution to the development of Swedish forest policy. Instead, the disagreements have resulted in putting pressure on the Swedish forestry model.
Camilla Sandström, Anna Sténs

Chapter 11. Concluding Remarks: Forest Futures in the Making

Abstract
The various chapters of this book provide a rather consistent view, pointing towards a scarcity crisis for land-based resources in a 2050 perspective. These outlooks seem to be highly linked to inefficient decision-making systems and institutional shortcomings. Without robust policy interventions from public institutions, market-driven governance systems can deliver neither sustainable production and consumption nor fairness and legitimacy at the global, national, and local levels. The long-term trade-offs require a formal legitimacy. These trade-offs between various demands on the land are key also in other Nordic countries where there are many demands on forested land (Fig. 11.1).
Erik Westholm

Backmatter

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