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2019 | Buch

The Global Trump

Structural US Populism and Economic Conflicts with Europe and Asia

verfasst von: Paul J. J. Welfens

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Über dieses Buch

"This book is able to explain and analyze what has eluded both scholars and thought leaders in business and the media - how and why populism has grabbed center stage. Highly recommendable."
-David B. Audretsch, Indiana University Bloomington, USA

"Welfens provides valuable insight into US politics and describes the strategic options for Europe going forward."
-Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, USA

"With great skill Welfens traces the implications of US populism for the global economic system."
- Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University, USA

"This critique of Trump´s fiscal and international trade policies and their weak intellectual basis deserves the attention of US and European readers alike"
-Richard H. Tilly, University of Münster, Germany

What lies behind the Trump victory of 2016 and the US' new raft of economic policies? Is a populist presidency in the United States likely to be a temporary phenomenon or a structural long-term challenge? In an era of declining multilateralism, what can the US still stand to learn from Europe, where several countries have effective lifetime economic welfare equal to that of the US - and what can the EU learn from the US in return? Furthermore, what international economic dynamics can be expected from the Sino-US trade conflict and can globalization be maintained? In this timely volume, Paul Welfens provides a rare, clear-sighted and scholarly analysis of the global problems created by Trump's protectionism and economic policy. He leverages his understanding of these problems to make concrete policy suggestions that could help prevent the world economy from falling back into a variant of the Great Powers regime of the late nineteenth century.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

The Background to Trumpism and Economic Explanations

Frontmatter
1. Introduction
Abstract
The introduction presents a motivation for the analysis and puts the focus on the US presidential election campaign of 2016. It also gives some key figures for per capita income in the US and highlights the burden of health-care expenditures in the country. A brief historical perspective, looking at Thomas Jefferson’s stay in Europe—before he became US President—is offered. Rising US inequality is emphasized as a key challenge for all presidents since the 1990s, and some elements of success of Trump’s victory in 2016 are discussed. Key aspects of European economic developments are identified so that the European Union (EU) and the US can be compared. Some selected studies on Trumpism as a political philosophy from the field of political science are highlighted.
Paul J. J. Welfens
2. Inequality, USUnited States Survey Results and Economic Analysis: The Case for Structural TrumpismTrumpism
Abstract
This chapter combines new insights from economic globalization and digitalization analysis with inequality statistics and new US survey results which show the main concerns of US households and voters, respectively. While rising economic inequality is considered to be a problem in the US survey, the relative majority of respondents express the expectation that large companies will take action to correct excessive inequality—a view that is wishful thinking and which is bound to result in sustained voter frustration for the lower half of the US income pyramid. This implies a structural populism problem in the US, which is a totally new situation: with challenges for the North America, Europe, Asia and the world. This new structural US populism hypothesis is linked to deep implications for trade policy and anti-multilateralism. Meanwhile, the Council of Economic Advisers’ 2018 study comparing per capita consumption in the US and Nordic European countries is also refuted.
Paul J. J. Welfens
3. Protectionist USUnited States Policy and Expansionary Fiscal Policy: Ongoing Contradictions
Abstract
This chapter considers the development of US trade policy and fiscal policy under the Trump Administration. Several inconsistencies are identified and the medium-term challenges which can be expected are identified. Since the US is a big economy, Washington’s protectionist tariff policy and inconsistent fiscal policy are shown to have direct negative medium-term effects on the US as well as negative effects on Europe and Asia/China. This US populist policy approach in turn will cause new conflicts and problems.
Paul J. J. Welfens

Transatlantic Economic Relations

Frontmatter
4. Trade, Employment and Transatlantic Policy Aspects
Abstract
A special chapter is devoted to transatlantic policy aspects and trade and employment issues. US protectionism vis-à-vis the EU is analyzed. The discussion from the literature is presented, and new findings on the size of the effective transatlantic per capita income gap are highlighted—here, effective refers to income net of health-care expenditures and takes into account lifetime income and hence differences in lifetime expectancy plus differences in paid vacations. The transatlantic differences in this perspective are very low, less than 5% and not the traditional 30% often claimed in standard analyses. The implication is that the US could learn from Germany and France, for example, as well as from Switzerland. Differences in US and European populism are emphasized, while the interaction of trade and foreign direct investment is analyzed.
Paul J. J. Welfens
5. EU European Union Reform Problems and the Rise of PopulismPopulism in EuropeEurope
Abstract
This chapter looks at EU reform challenges and the rise of populism in Europe—with due emphasis on Germany, Italy, France and the UK. Links between Trumpism and Brexit are emphasized, including the potential conflict between the UK’s post-Brexit Global Britain approach with a focus on more free trade agreements and the Trump Administration’s apparent goal to weaken multilateralism in general and the World Trade Organization in particular. Specific financial market perspectives of Brexit, partly related to the US and the EU27, are also analyzed. Specific aspects of transatlantic regulatory and security perspectives are discussed, and a new model with trade, foreign direct investment and domestic and foreign tariffs is used to highlight some key issues under the Trump Administration.
Paul J. J. Welfens
Backmatter

USUnited States-Asian and Global Economic Perspectives

Frontmatter
6. US United States -AsiaAsia-EU United States Perspectives
Abstract
This chapter looks into the US-China tariff conflict and the impact on the EU28 and Asia more broadly. The analysis includes the effects of the conflict on the profitability of multinational US companies in China and Chinese companies in the US. Moreover, the transportation challenges of US-China and EU-China trade are also considered. The differences in the respective logistics have favorable implications for EU-Sino economic cooperation, on the one hand, and for security issues, on the other hand. China’s One Belt One Road Initiative will clearly have a long-run impact on both Asia and Europe as will China’s global port investments. There is a triangular economic logic of US protectionism to be taken into account, namely, the triplolar US-China-EU world, which is more difficult to understand and manage than traditional US-Asia policy approaches prior to 1990.
Paul J. J. Welfens
7. ChinaChina Risks and Challenges
Abstract
This chapter looks into the risks and new challenges posed by China, particularly by including the ASEAN countries in which the EU currently enjoys a leading position in terms of foreign direct investment, but which sooner or later will face China assuming the dominant role. This process is likely to be accelerated by the US-Sino trade conflict which, of course, has an impact on Chinese multinational companies’ foreign direct investment orientation. The broader US policy inconsistencies and the Trump Administration’s analytical shortcomings become clear here again—in line with the broader innovative view emphasized for international economic analysis, namely, that trade, foreign direct investment and tariffs plus capital accumulation have to be analyzed jointly.
Paul J. J. Welfens

Policy Innovations and Systemic Reforms

Frontmatter
8. Policy Conclusions for International OrganizationsInternational organizations
Abstract
This chapter looks into the key conclusions for international organizations in this new era of US populism and the rise of China. The crucial role of international organizations for trade, investment flows and regional plus global prosperity is emphasized. Moreover, a focus is placed on the destabilization effects of not only the Trump Administration’s new international policy approach—and emphasis on bilateralism—but also on the crucial implications of the British Brexit process and the obvious related challenges for the EU and Asia. As the US is such a big player in most international organizations relevant for globalization, there are many negative effects to be considered in an analytical perspective.
Paul J. J. Welfens
9. International Policy Conclusions
Abstract
This chapter looks into international policy conclusions where an emphasis is on the US, China and Europe—particularly the EU27 and the UK. Several conclusions are drawn with respect to policy options for the US to reduce income inequality over the medium and long run. Moreover, there are several proposals presented for economic policymakers in order to improve economic stability at the national and international levels. A two-stage efficient rating system for government bonds is one of the key institutional innovations presented. As regards the EU, a series of reforms for a more efficient integration club is developed and thus impulses for institutional learning are offered. Moreover, key sustainability aspects and implications are discussed—more global stability and prosperity could be achieved.
Paul J. J. Welfens
10. CanadaCanada , the US and EurozoneEurozone : Implications for USUnited States Reforms
Abstract
Selected social policies in Canada and the Eurozone are considered and compared to the US. Hence, several policy options for US reforms can be identified. Moreover, one can draw conclusions with respect to US trade policy and economic policy. It is stressed how important EU27 reform—post-Brexit—is, since otherwise the world economy will be shaped by the dominance of the US and China, and no significant external impulses for a social market economy in the US would play a role. The risk of structural US populism is emphasized. Without institutional stabilization in the Western world, the global economy will fall back into a new Grand Powers regime reminiscent of the nineteenth century—with the US and China as leaders.
Paul J. J. Welfens
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
The Global Trump
verfasst von
Paul J. J. Welfens
Copyright-Jahr
2019
Verlag
Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-21784-6
Print ISBN
978-3-030-21783-9
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21784-6