The Impact of Megatrends on the Transition from Car-Ownership to Carsharing: A Delphi Method Approach

The purpose of this paper is to examine the new reality that is formed through the gradual transition from car-ownership to carsharing and carpooling. In this new reality, car use is gradually detached from its ownership, and there are challenges and prospects that have to be examined in order to become opportunities. Everyone will be able to use a car without having it bought, either as a co-passenger or as a user of a carsharing or a carpooling service. The sharing economy is offering more and more possibilities towards this direction, exploiting the widespread use of smartphones worldwide. Carsharing services like DriveNow of BMW and Car2Go of Daimler, ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft, and carpooling applications seem to change the landscape of car mobility radically. What are the megatrends that seem to be formed in the future? What are the challenges and the prospects of this newly formed reality? Regarding these and other relevant questions, this paper tries to give some insights by exploring the effect of megatrends on the demand for carsharing and carpooling services, after a questionnaire survey amongst experts using the Delphi method. It was found that the most critical megatrends for the next decade will be: a) Innovative and affordable technologies, b) Automation, and c) Internet of Things; the most important trend that will affect the demand for carsharing will be “Automation,” and the most important trend that will affect the demand for carpooling will be “Artificial Intelligence.”