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The impact of migration background and ethnicity on car, bus and bicycle use in England

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  • 04.12.2025

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Abstract

Diese Studie untersucht die komplizierte Beziehung zwischen Migrationshintergrund, ethnischer Zugehörigkeit und Reiseverhalten in England und konzentriert sich dabei auf die Nutzung von Autos, Bussen und Fahrrädern. Die Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, dass Migranten der ersten Generation und bestimmte ethnische Minderheiten im Vergleich zur einheimischen Bevölkerung unterschiedliche Reisemuster aufweisen. Insbesondere in den ersten Jahren nach der Migration nutzen Migranten der ersten Generation tendenziell weniger Autos und mehr Busse. Diese Unterschiede verringern sich jedoch mit der Zeit, was auf einen Assimilationsprozess im Transportwesen hindeutet. Ethnische Minderheiten wie "asiatische oder asiatische Briten" und "schwarze oder schwarze Briten" weisen ein geringeres Maß an Autoverkehr und Radfahren auf, das auch nach Berücksichtigung sozioökonomischer und räumlicher Faktoren anhält. Die Studie untersucht auch das Konzept ethnischer Nachbarschaftseffekte und findet begrenzte Beweise für ihre Existenz über die Zugehörigkeit zu einer einzelnen ethnischen Gruppe hinaus. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Bedeutung der Berücksichtigung sowohl des Migrationshintergrunds als auch der ethnischen Zugehörigkeit als unabhängige Determinanten des Reiseverhaltens, was Auswirkungen auf nachhaltige Verkehrspolitik und Strategien zur sozialen Eingliederung hat.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-025-10696-5.

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Introduction

International migration has increased over the last decades, mainly driven by work and study or family reasons, increasing the diversity of the population both globally and in Europe (IOM 2021). Thus, a growing body of research has tried to understand whether and to what extent the travel behaviour of immigrants is similar or different from the native-born population (e.g., Smart 2015; Hu 2017; Welsch et al. 2018; Delbosc and Shafi 2023). The question of whether and how migration and ethnic background impact travel behaviour has gained increasing attention over the last two decades. Most of the research stems from the United States of America (US) and to a lesser extend from other countries with substantial immigrant populations like Canada or Australia. European studies on this topic are rather scarce, despite the growing share of the migrant population in many countries (Lanzieri 2011, eurostat 2022). This is also the case for the United Kingdom (UK), where immigrants and ethnic minority groups account for a substantial and growing share of the population (as we discuss in Sect. "Case study context"). In the UK, this aspect of population diversity is often discussed in relation to income and inequalities (Shen and Kogan 2020; Saunders et al. 2021; Sweida-Metwally 2022) but less so with regards to travel behaviour. In many European countries, there is a general paucity of data sources that allow the investigation of immigration or ethnicity effects on travel behaviour while controlling for socio-demographic, economic and spatial intervening factors, as well as for differences in transport systems or access to transport modes. In order to assess and cater to different travel needs, differences in travel behaviour need to be understood. Existing studies point out that the travel behaviour of immigrants differs from that of the native-born population as they tend to use the car less and public transport more often, particularly in the initial period after migration (Delbosc and Shafi 2023), as we discuss in greater detail in Sect. “Literature on travel behaviour by immigration background or ethnicity”.
A range of terms with overlapping definitions are used in research and public debates on migration and ethnicity. These also tend to vary across countries, reflecting differing cultures, policy traditions and sensitivities around this issue. The terms “immigrant” (in the US context) and “migrant” (in the European context) are often used to identify people who are not native born to the country. Both the US and the UK also distinguish people’s ethnicity (for US: race/ethnicity) e.g. by including items on ethnic group identity in national surveys, which overlaps with the regions of origin for many immigrants. Burton et al. (2008) discuss ethnic group classifications for the UK and point out, that pre-defined categories can only weakly capture a person’s subjective identity (Supplementary Material: Terminology). Nevertheless, these concepts can support the inclusion of certain aspects of the population’s diversity in research or policies.
In this article, we analyse survey data on migration, ethnicity, and everyday travel mode use (frequency of car, bus, and bicycle use) from the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS), which offers uniquely rich data and a large, representative sample (University of Essex 2021). This enables us to disentangle immigration- and ethnicity-related effects. The survey data uses the concepts of migration generation (also called migration background) and ethnic group (Sect. "Data"). Based on the literature review (Sect. "Literature on travel behaviour by immigration background or ethnicity"), we include further factors in our analysis such as detailed spatial information on accessibility to services by different modes, and socio-demographic factors. We account for the effect of these factors in a step-by-step approach. This way, we can shed light on what underlies the different travel behaviour of migration and ethnic minority groups.
In this paper we investigate following research questions: (1) Are there differences in travel mode use between groups defined by their migration and ethnicity status? (2) To what extent are these differences accounted for by intervening factors related to socio-economic characteristics and spatial characteristics of the residential area? (3) Is there evidence of ethnic neighbourhood effects on travel mode use? These questions emerge from the literature review in Sect. “Literature on travel behaviour by immigration background or ethnicity”. Notably, our study advances research in this area in three respects. First, by providing representative evidence on migrant travel behaviour from a context (the UK and Europe) for which little evidence on this topic exists. Second, by simultaneously considering and disentangling the effects of migration generation and ethnicity on travel behaviour. Finally, by considering a wide range of factors that might explain or confound this association.
The paper is structured as follows. Following Sect. “Literature on travel behaviour by immigration background or ethnicity”, where we review the relevant literature, Sect. “Data and methods”describes data and methods and provides information about the case study context. Sect. “Results” presents the results of bivariate and multi-variate analyses. In Sect. “Discussion”, we discuss our findings as well as limitations of our approach and conclude our paper by elaborating on directions for further research and policy implications (Sect. “Conclusion”). Additional information is provided in the Supplementary Material.

Literature on travel behaviour by immigration background or ethnicity

Against the background of a growing immigrant population, the first publications on this topic analysed similarities and differences in the everyday travel behaviour of immigrants in comparison to native-born individuals, with a main focus on commuting and on public transport demand (e.g., Germany: Hautzinger et al. 1996, US: Myers 1997, Casas et al. 2004, Canada: Heisz and Schellenberg 2004, UK: Gardiner and Hill 1997, Owen and Green 2000, DfT 2003).
Most subsequent research stems from the US, where surveys often include information on race/ethnicity and immigration status (e.g., Blumenberg and Evans 2007; Beckman and Goulias 2008; Liu and Painter 2012; Smart 2015). When compared to the native-born population lower levels of car access and use, and higher levels of public transport use and walking were found. Some of those differences can be attributed to differences between the two groups in terms of socio-economic characteristics and residential location, as many of the more recent immigrants tend to have lower financial resources and lower car ownership. Those differences generally diminish with a longer duration of stay, something which is referred to as “transport assimilation” or “adaption” effect (e.g., Xu 2018; Asgari et al. 2017; Chatman and Klein 2009).
This assimilation effect may play out across generations, with some evidence that second migration generations have travel behaviour patterns more similar to people without a migration background (Harms 2007; Klocker et al. 2015; Welsch et al. 2018; Hu et al. 2021; Mattioli and Scheiner 2022). Yet other studies found a persisting difference, i.e., the “immigration effect”, which still remains after controlling for socio-demographic, economic or spatial factors (e.g., Harun et al. 2021; Chatman 2014; Chatman and Klein 2013). Here, one can hypothesise that unaccounted cultural effects, preferences and attitudes contribute to explain differences in travel behaviour and that those “soft” factors vary across different groups defined by ethnicity or countries of origin (e.g., Welsch 2015; Yum 2019; Shafi et al. 2023).
US studies also found that car-pooling (sharing a private car with family or acquaintances) is more common among immigrant groups (Lovejoy and Handy 2011; Blumenberg and Smart 2014) and is often correlated with living in a neighbourhood with a high share of immigrants (Smart 2015). Similarly, Shin (2017) finds that living in an ethnic neighbourhood with a high ratio of same ethnic/racial group generally affects inter-household car-pooling positively for most ethnic groups.
There are few studies focusing specifically on bicycle use in the US. They show that cycling is more common among recent immigrants and/or certain immigrant or race/ethnicity groups (e.g., with European origin). Also, cycling varies depending on overall spatial factors, (limited) mobility options and support of local social networks (Smart 2010; Howerter et al. 2019; Barajas 2020). In the US, Smart (2015) found that residing in a neighbourhood with high shares of immigrants further increases the probability that immigrants use modes alternative to the car (notably walking and cycling), even after controlling for intervening factors such as built environment characteristics. This might be due to social factors in the neighbourhood such as a higher propensity to conduct social activities in close proximity within the neighbourhood, and learning from the example of fellow immigrants with regard to travel mode choice.
Research on the travel behaviour of immigrants and ethnic groups has also gained attention in other countries in which immigration has played an important role in history, namely Canada (e.g., Lo et al. 2011; Mercado et al. 2012; Newbold et al. 2017; Harun et al. 2021) and Australia (e.g., Syam et al. 2012; Klocker et al. 2015; Churchill 2020, Shafi et al. 2022). Research evidence from the UK and other European countries is still rather scarce. In many European countries, there is no established tradition of collecting information on race, ethnicity, or immigration status within (national) transport-related household surveys, in contrast to the US or the UK. If such data is included, detailed analyses are often limited due to small sample size and/or underrepresentation for the groups of interest, with low response rates possibly due to lower socio-economic status or barriers related to language or literacy. As a result, European research often relies on the limited information available within national household surveys or on ad-hoc, smaller scale surveys (e.g., Netherlands: Harms 2007, Durand et al. 2023, Austria: Fassmann and Reeger 2014, Germany: Welsch et al. 2018, Geis 2019, Welsch 2022, Denmark/Netherlands: Haustein et al. 2020). Similar to studies from North America, European studies also found lower levels of car ownership and car use, and higher levels of public transport use, although when controlling for socio-economic factors, these differences tend to decrease or remain significant only for certain groups of immigrants and/or for the first generation. In countries with higher cycling levels such as Denmark, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, immigrants tend to cycle less than the native-born (van der Kloof 2015; Fassmann and Reeger 2014; Harms 2007; Harms et al. 2014; Durand et al. 2023). Welsch et al. (2018) find a correlation between cycling socialisation and bicycle use for different immigrant groups, which could partially explain such an immigrant effect. For Denmark and the Netherlands, Haustein et al. (2020) analysed the effect of ethnic neighbourhoods as a proxy for cultural influences on the propensity to use the bicycle and found a small negative influence.
Despite a flourishing tradition of transport research, there is a paucity of quantitative research on the travel behaviour of immigrant and ethnic minority groups in the UK. Participants in the English National Travel Survey (NTS) are asked to self-report their ethnic group and country of birth (DfT 2018), but to the best of our knowledge no dedicated study has used this information. Some reports have looked into the impact of migration on transport, with e.g., Tsang and Rohr (2011), analysing mode use for the journey to work based on the Annual Population Survey. They found that a significant transport assimilation took place within the first few years upon arrival (except for bus use), but information on migration status was limited and important transport related variables such as car access/ownership were missing from the dataset. Based partly on other, smaller-scale data sources and on descriptive analysis, other reports have focused on issues such as the (public) transport needs and related security perceptions of different ethnic groups (DfT 20032003, Syam et al. 2011), cycling (Bowles Green Limited 2008, Goodman and Aldred 2018; Bednarowska-Michaiel 2023; Osei and Aldred 2023) or issues such as road safety (Steinbach et al. 2007) and the transport-related problems of socially disadvantaged groups, including ethnic minorities among others (Wixey et al. 2003; Smith et al. 2006; Lucas et al. 2016, 2019; Vidal Tortosa et al. 2021). A recent study by Mattioli and Scheiner (2022) based on UKHLS data for 2012/13 focused primarily on air travel but found lower car mileage as driver among foreign-born and non-white UK residents, which is partly but not entirely accounted for by differences in socio-economic composition and residential location, and by the fact that their close family members live abroad. The study however does not include detailed information on transport mode availability and accessibility at the neighbourhood level, and as such cannot rule out that this just reflects a pattern whereby migrants and ethnic minorities are more likely to live in areas that are less car dependent.
In summary, and in line with what recent reviews found (Delbosc and Shafi (2023) most quantitative studies consider multiple indicators to explain the different travel behaviour of immigrants and/or ethnic groups. Most commonly, differences in socio-economic factors such as lower income and associated factors (employment status, education level, lower car ownership rates) are found to account for part of those differences (e.g., Newbold et al. 2017; Xu 2018; Welsch et al. 2018). Age and household composition are often included to account for demographic differences between native-born and (newly) immigrated population groups. Gender-related differences e.g., in transport mode use are often found to be more pronounced among immigrant or ethnic population groups, which is sometimes explained with reference to differing social norms or cultural preferences (e.g., Syam et al. 2012, Aldred et al. 2016, Klocker et al. 2015, Shin 2017, Haustein et al. 2020). Spatial and transport-related indicators are not always taken into account in the literature to date. When included, residential location or neighbourhood characteristics are considered (e.g., population density, proximity to the city centre or access to public transport services, sometimes in combination with ethnic composition (e.g., Beckman and Goulias 2008; Chatman 2014; Liu and Painter 2012; Smart 2015)). In many studies that take the factors above into account there remains some unexplained differences in travel behaviour, the so-called immigration effect. While it is often argued that this reflects cultural differences these have mostly been directly investigated in qualitative studies (e.g., Bowles Green Limited 2008, Lovejoy and Handy 2011; Chatman and Klein 2013; Barajas 2020), rather than in quantitative ones.

Data and methods

Case study context

The UK is made up of the four constituent nations England, Wales, Scottland, Northern Ireland. It is characterised by a lower motorisation rate (491 cars per 1,000 inhabitants) as compared to the US, but also relative to most other Western European countries (European Commission 2021). For reasons of data availability (Sect. "Data") our study focuses on England, which accounts for over 80% of the UK population. According to the NTS for England in 2019, 24% of all households lived without a car (DfT 2020) while the modal split was dominated by cars (61% of trips), walking accounted for a substantial share of trips (26%) while cycling was residual (2%). Public transport accounted for just 7% of trips, of which 5% by bus and 2% by rail-based modes (both local and long-distance). While Greater London is served by a good network of rail-based public transport, this is not the case in most other English cities, including large metropolitan areas (Docherty and Shaw 2008). As a result, local buses accounted in 2019 for most public transport trips in all areas other than London, and for about half of them in the capital (DfT 2021). This also explains why there is a large gap between Greater London and other metropolitan areas in terms of accessibility to essential services and opportunities by modes alternative to the car (Mattioli et al. 2019).
Official statistics report that in the UK, in 2019, about 14% of the population was born abroad (9.5 million people), with about 38% of these migrants coming from the European Union and 35% living in the London region (Vargas-Silva and Rienzo 2020). About 28% of British children under the age of 18 have at least one parent who was born outside of the UK (Fernández-Reino 2020). This contributes to an increasing diversity of the British population, especially when the descendants of migrants are taken into account. (McFall et al. 2024) report that the five main ethnic minority groups in the UK are Indian, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Caribbean, and African. The share of “Black, Asian and other Minority Ethnic” groups in the British population is projected to grow rapidly from 8% in 2001 to 30% in 2061 (Rees et al. 2017). For England only, with regards to the main aggregated ethnic groups the estimated share in 2019 was 77.6% “White British”, 6.7% “Other White”, 8.3% “Asian or Asian British”, 3.7% “Black or Black British”, and 3.8% “Other Non-White and Mixed” (ONS 2022a).

Data

Our analysis is based on Wave 10 of the UKHLS dataset (2018–2019), which is the most recent pre-COVID wave available. While travel patterns may have changed in the post-pandemic period, our aim in this paper is to provide a baseline picture of the travel behaviour of groups with ethnic minority and migration background in the UK, which does not exist to date (UKHL dataset: University of Essex 2024).
UKHLS is a large, representative, general purpose survey with a full sample of 34,318 individuals in Wave 10. It includes detailed information on migration and ethnic background. Participants from ethnic minority groups and (new) immigrants were oversampled in order to ensure a healthy sample size for those groups (McFall et al. 2024). As such, UKHLS is ideally suited for research on ethnicity and migration effects. Since Wave 6, UKHLS includes a new ‘Immigrant and Ethnic Minority Boost Sample’ (Carpenter and Deepchand 2016) including households selected from areas of high ethnic minority concentration in 2015 where at least one member was born outside the UK, or from an ethnic minority group. As a result, we are able to include a decent number of first-generation migrants in our analysis. However, the sub-sample of recent migrants is still relatively small, and possibly skewed in terms of date of arrival. These limitations must be kept in mind when interpreting the results. Notably, they might hinder our ability to reliably detect “transport assimilation” effects.
We focus on England as that allows us to include in the analysis spatial attributes of the neighbourhood of residence, which are not available for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Our English analysis sample of 17,543 individuals includes 4,125 respondents from non-White ethnic groups, and 4,741 with first or second-generation migration background (unweighted sample numbers).
The dependent variables in our analysis are derived from three questions asking respondents: “How frequently do you use”:
i)
“a private car or van–whether as a driver or passenger”;
 
ii)
“an ordinary bus”;
 
iii)
“a bicycle”.
 
Eight response categories were provided (1: “At least once a day”; 2: “Less than once a day but at least three times a week”; 3: “Once or twice a week”; 4: “Less than that but more than twice a month”; 5: “Once or twice a month”; 6: “Less than that but more than twice a year”; 7: “Once or twice a year”; 8: “Less than that or never”; see Supplementary Material, Table s1 for the frequency distribution of transport mode use in the analysis sample). We are unable to investigate the frequency of walking and the use of rail-based local public transport, as UKHLS includes no question about these transport modes.1 We comment on how this might affect our findings where appropriate in Sect. “Discussion”. As noted above, local buses account for most public transport trips outside of London, and for a substantial share of them even within the capital. The data doesn’t allow a distinction between car use as a driver or car use as passenger (carpooling). Thus, our analysis might overlook the extent to which the two migration generations and parts of ethnic minority population travel by car as passengers rather than drivers.
The main independent variables in our analysis are ethnic group and migration generation. We consider five aggregated ethnic group categories: “White British”; “Other White”; “Asian or Asian British”; “Black or Black British”; “Other Non-White and Mixed”. We also distinguish between “first generation” migrants (born abroad), second generation (born in the UK, but with at least one parent born abroad) and others. Preliminary analysis showed virtually no difference between respondents with grandparents born abroad (“third generation”) and those with no parent or grandparent born abroad (“fourth generation or higher”), which is why those two categories are merged in the analysis presented here. We further distinguish between recent and less recent first-generation migrants based on the year of arrival. For the analysis of car and bus use, we class first-generation migrants into those who had been in the UK for 5 years or less and others, as previous research from the UK has found this to be a meaningful threshold for transport assimilation (Mattioli and Scheiner 2022). For the analysis of cycling use, we adopt a different and higher threshold (10 years), to prevent too low sample size in some cycling frequency categories for recent migrants. For context, the median value of the length of stay in the UK for first-generation migrants in our sample is 25 years, with just 10% of them reporting having been in the UK for 11 years or less.
Except for the overwhelming majority of “White British”, few of which have any migration background, the distribution of immigration generation across ethnic groups is rather similar (see Supplementary Material, Table s2 and Table s3), even though respondents who identify as “Other Non-White and Mixed” more often belong to the 2nd or 3rd generation. Overall, this suggests that the “ethnic group” and “migration generation” variables are not too strongly correlated, and that there is value in simultaneously exploring the effect of both. This is what our analysis sets out to do.
Our analysis includes three further sets of factors influencing travel behaviour: other socio-economic characteristics of the respondent; spatial attributes of the neighbourhood of residence; and information about car access and driving licence ownership. We control for the first two sets of variables, and include car access and driving licence ownership to assess to what extent they act as mediating factors between the other factors and travel behaviour, as indicated in the literature (Simma and Axhausen 2001; Scheiner and Holz-Rau 2007; van Acker and Witlox 2010; Haustein and Kroesen 2022).
With regard to socio-economic characteristics, we include well-known correlates of travel mode use including income (net monthly household income, adjusted for taxes and housing benefits, minus housing costs, equivalised based on OECD ‘after housing costs’ equivalence scale), education, sex, age, household composition and disability. Note that the “responsibility for children” variable captures whether the individual is the responsible adult for cohabiting children under 16 years old. In households with both male and female parents in the sample, it is typically the female person who declares main responsibility for children (as only one parent can).
Spatial attributes refer to the 2011 Census Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) where the respondent lives. They represent small, homogeneous local neighbourhood units, including typically 1,000 to 3,000 inhabitants, based on spatial proximity, natural boundaries and homogeneity of dwelling type and tenure (ONS 2022b). We include an urban–rural classification (University of Essex 2020), population density based on 2018 data (ONS 2019), as well accessibility measures derived from the government “Journey Time Statistics” for 2019 (DfT 2022b). These include the sum of the estimated total travel time necessary to reach 8 essential services (employment centre, primary school, secondary school, further education college, general practitioner, hospital, food store, and town centre) by public transport or walking (whatever is the quickest) and by bicycle (for the bicycle-model only). A similar indicator was used in previous research to measure the degree of car dependence of English LSOAs (Mattioli et al. 2019). We further include an indicator of the total estimated travel time to reach the nearest rail station classed as “national or regional hub” by public transport, taken from government “Journey Times Connectivity” statistics for 2015 (DfT 2022a), the most recent year for which this statistic is available.
In a separate part of the analysis, we further include measures of ethnic density in the LSOA, i.e., the percentage of residents who identify as “Asian or Asian British”, as “Black or Black British”, or as “Other Non-White or Mixed” background, based on 2011 Census Data (ONS 2013). We do not include the percentage of White residents in the analysis to avoid multicollinearity.

Methods

Our analysis consists of two main steps. We first examine the bivariate association between the independent and dependent variables (Sect. “Bivariate analysis”) and then present multivariate regression models for each of the outcome variables (frequency of car, bus, and bicycle use, Sect.  4.2). After listwise deletion of cases with missing values, our analysis sample consists of 17,543 individuals (unweighted sample numbers). Our analysis takes into account survey design (sampling clusters and strata) and applies the appropriate standardized weighting factors to adjust for differences in respondent drop-off and sample selection probability, including the oversampling of ethnic minority groups and immigrants. For the analyses, we use the recommended weighting factor (“j_indinui_xw”, i.e., the cross-sectional weight for analysis using adult main interview (BHPS, GPS, EMBS & IEMBS), University of Essex 2025) and the “svy” command in STATA.
We use ordinal logit regression models with proportional odds (“ologit” command in STATA, Long and Freese 2014) to identify the factors associated with greater frequency of mode use. The models estimate the effect of the independent variables on an underlying continuous, latent variable, which in our case can be thought of as the propensity to use that travel mode more often. This continuous latent variable is divided by a set of “cut-points”, which are estimated along with the coefficients, in a generalization of the ordinary binary logit model that allows for more than two outcomes. The coefficients are log-odds and ought to be interpreted as the change in the log-odds of being in a higher level of frequency of travel mode use associated with a one unit increase in the independent variable, given that all of the other predictors in the model are held constant. For categorical independent variables, the interpretation is done in comparison to the reference category.
In preliminary analyses, we also estimated two sets of binary logistic regression models for the probability of using the mode “at least once a week”, and “three times a week or more”. We found that ordinal logit and binary logistic regression models delivered very similar results. Therefore, we only present the ordinal logit regression results.
The main interest of this study is the association between migration and ethnic minority background and travel mode use, and the extent to which this association is accounted for by other intervening factors. To investigate this, for each travel mode, we start with a non-adjusted model including a single predictor including migration background/generation (Model A), then include ethnicity (Model B), and progressively adjust for other socio-economic characteristics (Model C), spatial attributes of the residential area (Model D). In the last step, we further control for household car ownership and driving licence (Model E), to assess to which extent they act as mediating factors. We performed multicollinearity tests on the fully adjusted models, obtaining no Variance Inflation Factor value higher than 4.
To investigate research question 3 (presence of ethnic neighbourhood effects), we estimate a further set of ordinal logit regression models, for each travel mode, including the same predictors as in the fully-adjusted Model E, minus ethnic group. In order to identify proper ethnic neighbourhood effects, we estimate separate models for each category of the ethnic group variable. The results of this analysis are discussed in Sect.  4.2.4.
In all regression models, our main interest is for the association between ethnicity and migration background predictors and travel behaviour outcomes, and how these changes when controlling for other intervening and mediating factors. As such, we only briefly comment on the goodness of fit of the models in Sect.  4.2, although we report a range of goodness of fit indices in the regression tables (Tables 24).

Results

Bivariate analysis

As presented in Table 1, we find evidence of a substantial bivariate association between travel mode use and migration background as well as ethnic groups. Migration background is associated with less car travel and more bus use, with a gradient going from recent first-generation migrants to respondents in the third generation or higher. There are however few statistically significant differences between the generations in terms of bicycle use.
Table 1
Crosstabulations between independent and dependent variables (unweighted n = 17,543)
 
Car use
Bus use
Bicycle use
 
No. of trips per year (mean)
At least once a week (%)
At least 3 times a week (%)
No. of trips per year (mean)
At least once a week (%)
At least 3 times a week (%)
No. of trips per year (mean)
At least once a week (%)
At least 3 times a week (%)
Share of total sample (%)
Migration generation
3rd + / no migration background
219
84
70
33
19
11
14
[7]
[5]
82.5
2nd
213
79
66
42
24
14
16
[8]
[5]
8.2
1st (> 5 years)
199
78
62
58
29
20
   
9.1
1st (5 years or less)
97
51
26
120
54
37
   
0.2
1st (> 10 years)
      
13
[7]
[4]
8,2
1st (10 years or less)
      
6
[3]
[1]
1.2
Ethnic group
White British
221
84
71
32
18
10
14
7
5
87.8
Other White
204
78
66
45
25
16
21
10
6
3.5
Asian or Asian British
186
74
57
61
31
19
8
4
2
4.6
Black or Black British
150
67
44
125
54
41
12
6
4
2.0
Other Non-White and Mixed
152
63
46
88
43
31
17
8
5
2.1
(i) selected independent variables, for complete version including control variables see Supplementary Material, Table s4a; (ii) to calculate the mean no. of trips per year, we have imputed the values based on the lower bound for each category of the ordinal variables (e.g., at least once a day = 365; less than once a day but at least three times a week = 156); (iii) all differences between categories of independent variables are statistically significant (Chi-square and t-tests at p < 0.05), except when cell values are reported between square brackets.
With regard to ethnic groups, we find that more than 60% of participants in all ethnic groups use cars at least on a weekly basis. The highest proportion can be found for “White British” (84%), followed by “Other Whites” and “Asian or Asian British” while differences are more pronounced for “Black or Black British” and “Other Non-White and Mixed” (63–67%). More than half (54%) of people in the group of “Black or Black British” use the bus at least once a week, followed by “Other Non-White and Mixed” and the remaining three groups, with the lowest values for “White British” (18%). Cycling is not common among any group, with the highest share of at least weekly use for “Other Whites” (10%). While 7% of “White British” and 8% of “Other Non-White and Mixed” cycle that often, only 6% of “Black or Black British” and 4% of “Asian or Asian British” do.
Control variables show expected patterns of correlation with travel mode use with e.g., positive associations between income and car use, between education and cycling, and between urbanity and bus use. Regarding ethnic density, we find that neighbourhoods with a high share of people who belong to any of the non-white ethnic groups are correlated with lower levels of car use, and higher levels of both cycling and bus use (for the complete version including control variables see Supplementary Material, Table s4a and for related results of significance tests see Table s4b).

Multivariate analysis

The bivariate associations discussed in the previous section might at least in part be due to differences between ethnic groups and migration generations in terms of socio-economic make up and/or residential location. To explore this, we present multivariate ordinal regression models for each of the travel modes (stepwise adjusted as described above). The fully adjusted models display decent goodness of fit to the data, considering the nature of the analysis.2
Table 2
Car use frequency: parameter estimates (log-odds) for the ordinal logit regression (unweighted n = 17,543)
 
Model A
Model B
Model C
Model D
Model E
Migration generation (ref. cat.: 3rd + /no migration background)
     
2nd
 − 0.084
0.67*
 − 0.028
0.092
0.087
1st (> 5 years)
 − 0.265***
0.282**
 − 0.035
 − 0.029
 − 0.019
1st (5 years or less)
 − 1.462***
 − 0.805**
 − 1.208**
 − 1.077**
0.089
Ethnic group (ref. cat.: White British)
     
Other White
 
 − 0.429*
 − 0.288
 − 0.031
0.066
Asian or Asian British
 
 − 0.660***
 − 0.459***
0.039
 − 0.069
Black or black British
 
 − 1.096***
 − 0.726***
 − 0.016
0.062
Other non-white and mixed
 
 − 1.099***
 − 0.805***
 − 0.454**
 − 0.347*
Equivalised income (after housing costs) (ref. cat.: 1st quintile / bottom)
     
2nd
  
0.261***
0.241***
0.121*
3rd
  
0.460***
0.398***
0.064
4th
  
0.741***
0.684***
0.254***
5th (top)
  
0.603***
0.621***
0.164**
Tertiary education qualification (dummy)
  
 − 0.065
 − 0.018
 − 0.181***
Employment status (ref. cat.: in employment)
     
Retired
  
 − 0.738***
 − 0.802***
 − 0.657***
In education
  
 − 0.759***
 − 0.803***
 − 0.829***
Other
  
 − 0.932***
 − 0.980***
 − 0.781***
Age group (ref.cat. 16–29 years old)
     
30–59 years old
  
0.307***
0.331***
0.315***
60–74 years old
  
0.439***
0.438***
0.287***
75 + years old
  
0.061
0.025
0.129
In a cohabiting relationship (dummy)
  
0.644***
0.539***
0.081
Female (dummy)
  
 − 0.136***
 − 0.156***
0.027
Responsible for children < 16 years old (dummy)
  
0.382***
0.392***
0.332***
Long-standing illness or disability (dummy)
  
− 0.133***
− 0.138***
− 0.018
Type of area (Ref.cat: C–Urban: city and town)
     
A1–urban: major conurbation: London
   
 − 0.631***
 − 0.632***
A1–urban: major conurbation: Other
   
0.149*
0.258***
B1–minor conurbation
   
0.055
0.206*
D–rural: town and fringe
   
 − 0.063
 − 0.071
E–rural: village
   
 − 0.117
 − 0.101
F–rural: hamlets and isolated dwellings
   
0.032
0.030
Population density in LSOA (1000s persons per hectare)
   
 − 0.062***
 − 0.034***
Total travel time to reach 8 essential services by PT or walking (z-score)
   
0.147***
0.090**
Travel time to nearest rail station (hours)
   
0.003
 − 0.002
Car ownership (household) (dummy)
    
1.866***
Driving licence (dummy)
    
1.046***
Cutpoint/1
 − 2.781***
 − 2.819***
 − 2.471***
 − 2.942***
 − 1.339***
Cutpoint/2
 − 2.539***
 − 2.576***
 − 2.220***
 − 2.686***
 − 1.066***
Cutpoint/3
 − 2.237***
 − 2.272***
 − 1.904***
 − 2.362***
 − 0.704***
Cutpoint/4
 − 1.838***
 − 1.869***
 − 1.478***
 − 1.919***
 − 0.180
Cutpoint/5
 − 1.601***
 − 1.629***
 − 1.219***
 − 1.647***
0.152
Cutpoint/6
 − 0.836***
 − 0.857***
 − 0.364***
 − 0.745***
1.277***
Cutpoint/7
0.055*
0.042
0.656***
0.326**
2.521***
Log-likelihood
 − 28,850
 − 28,742
 − 27,329
 − 26,769
 − 25,094
Wald χ2
43
159
1574
2289
3459
Prob. > χ2
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
McFadden’s R2
0.001
0.005
0.05
0.07
0.13
McKelvey & Zavoina’s R2
0.003
0.02
0.16
0.21
0.33
AIC
57,719
57,512
54,715
53,615
50,267
BIC
57,797
57,620
54,941
53,910
50,578
Significance levels: * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001

4.1.1. Car use

We find a negative association between first migration generation and frequency of car travel (Table 2) in the non-adjusted model (Model A). When other socio-economic characteristics are included (Model B), this association becomes insignificant for more established migrants, but remains significant for recent migrants who had been in the UK for 5 years or less. This negative association becomes non-significant when controlling for household car ownership and driving licence, suggesting that migrants are less likely to drive in the first few years after arrival because they do not have access to cars and/or do not have a valid driving licence, but tend to acquire them over time.
All ethnic minority groups are associated with lower frequency of car travel as compared to “White British”, with this being most pronounced for “Black and Black British" and “Other Non-White and Mixed”. However, after controlling for social factors (Model C), there is no statistically significant association for the “Other White”. After controlling for spatial factors (Model D), there is no statistically significant association other than for the “Other Non-White and Mixed” group. When controlling for car related factors (Mode E), this association is diminished. This suggests that for most ethnic minority groups, lower levels of car use are largely due to differences in socio-economic make-up (e.g., lower income) and characteristics of the residential location (e.g., more urban, less car-dependent areas).

Bus use

We find a positive association between second migration generation and bus use frequency (Table 3) in the non-adjusted model (Model A), which however disappears when controlling for ethnic group membership (Model B). The positive association for less recent first-generation migrants becomes non-significant when controlling for socio-economic predictors (Model C). Recent migrants who had been in the UK for 5 years or less are much more likely to use buses, and this association remains after controlling for most other factors but disappears when car access and driving licence ownership are controlled for (Model E). This suggests that over time migrants are likely to acquire a car and a driving licence and tend to reduce bus use as a result.
Table 3
Bus use frequency: Parameter estimates (log-odds) for the ordinal logit regression (unweighted n = 17,543)
 
Model A
Model B
Model C
Model D
Model E
Migration generation (ref. cat.: 3rd + /no migration background)
     
2nd
0.245***
-0.040
0.086
-0.035
-0.013
1st (> 5 years)
0.384***
-0.223**
-0.014
0.005
0.011
1st (5 years or less)
1.598***
0.908**
1.109**
1.015**
-0.015
Ethnic group (ref. cat.: White British)
     
Other white
 
0.476***
0.350**
-0.012
-0.117
Asian or Asian British
 
0.633***
0.516***
-0.109
-0.077
Black or Black British
 
1.714***
1.497***
0.672***
0.602***
Other non-white and mixed
 
1.217***
0.976***
0.546***
0.487***
Equivalised income (after housing costs) (ref. cat.: 1st quintile / bottom)
     
2nd
  
-0.107
-0.079
0.021
3rd
  
-0.210**
-0.138*
0.111
4th
  
-0.241***
-0.178**
0.141*
5th (top)
  
-0.122
-0.156*
0.182**
Tertiary education qualification (dummy)
  
0.176***
0.156***
0.286***
Employment status (ref. cat.: In employment)
     
Retired
  
0.616***
0.660***
0.549***
In education
  
1.121***
1.194***
1.017***
Other
  
0.083
0.060
-0.195***
Age group (ref.cat. 16–29 years old)
     
30–59 years old
  
-0.202**
-0.243***
-0.109
60–74 years old
  
-0.051
0.021
0.269***
75 + years old
  
-0.393***
-0.315**
-0.231*
In a cohabiting relationship (dummy)
  
-0.435***
-0.324***
-0.085
Female (dummy)
  
0.193***
0.224***
0.101**
Responsible for children < 16 years old (dummy)
  
-0.245***
-0.239***
-0.160**
Long-standing illness or disability (dummy)
  
-0.053
-0.053
-0.148***
Type of area (Ref.cat: C–Urban: City and Town)
     
A1–Urban: Major conurbation: London
   
1.118***
1.148***
A1–Urban: Major conurbation: Other
   
0.266***
0.247***
B1–Minor conurbation
   
0.675***
0.646***
D–Rural: Town and fringe
   
0.036
0.051
E–Rural: Village
   
-0.140
-0.135
F–Rural: Hamlets and isolated dwellings
   
-0.359**
-0.356**
Population density in LSOA (1000s persons per hectare)
   
0.049***
0.031***
Total travel time to reach 8 essential services by PT or walking (z-score)
   
-0.088**
-0.053
Travel time to nearest rail station (hours)
   
-0.139***
-0.135***
Car ownership (household) (dummy)
    
-0.909***
Driving licence (dummy)
    
-1.196***
Cutpoint/1
-0.419***
-0.409***
-0.676***
-0.424***
-1.934***
Cutpoint/2
0.208***
0.223***
-0.018
0.283**
-1.191***
Cutpoint/3
0.667***
0.689***
0.476***
0.825***
-0.605***
Cutpoint/4
1.119***
1.149***
0.965***
1.364***
-0.014
Cutpoint/5
1.423***
1.458***
1.293***
1.722***
0.380***
Cutpoint/6
2.050***
2.096***
1.964***
2.440***
1.165***
Cutpoint/7
3.005***
3.068***
2.966***
3.489***
2.282***
Log-likelihood
-34,604
-34,421
-33,787
-32,744
-31,814
Wald χ2
62
254
1056
2095
2573
Prob. > χ2
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
McFadden’s R2
0.002
0.01
0.03
0.06
0.08
McKelvey & Zavoina’s R2
0.01
0.03
0.09
0.18
0.26
AIC
69,228
68,870
67,633
65,563
63,708
BIC
69,306
68,979
67,858
65,858
64,019
Significance levels: * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001
There is a positive association between all ethnic minority groups and bus use, which is more pronounced for respondents with “Black or Black British” and with “Other Non-White and Mixed” ethnicity. For these two groups, the association remains (albeit with reduced magnitude) after controlling for social and spatial variables (Model C and D). For “Asians or Asian British” and “Other Whites”, there is no statistically significant association with bus use after controlling for socio-economic characteristics and spatial attributes of the residential area.
When controlling for car access and driving licence ownership (Model E), all statistically significant ethnicity predictors are reduced in magnitude. This suggests that lower car ownership and lack of driving licence is part (though only part) of the reason why people who identify as “Black or Black British” and “Other Non-White and Mixed” travel more by bus.
Table 3.
.

Bicycle use

We find no significant association between migration background and bicycle use (Table 4), except for first generation migrants who had been in the country for less than 10 years, who are less likely to cycle (Model A). This negative association persists, and even becomes larger in magnitudes after controlling for other factors.
Table 4
Bicycle use frequency: Parameter estimates (log-odds) for the ordinal logit regression of bicycle use frequency (unweighted n = 17,543)
 
Model A
Model B
Model C
Model D
Model E
Migration generation (ref. cat.: 3rd + /no migration background)
     
2nd
0.003
0.036
-0.008
-0.023
-0.023
1st (> 10 years)
-0.098
-0.090
-0.160
-0.198
-0.197
1st (10 years or less)
-0.604*
-0.720*
-0.895**
-0.915**
-0.921**
Ethnic group (ref. cat.: White British)
     
Other White
 
0.476**
0.391*
0.384*
0.383*
Asian or Asian British
 
-0.373**
-0.681***
-0.663***
-0.660***
Black or Black British
 
-0.314
-0.408*
-0.419*
-0.420*
Other Non-White and Mixed
 
-0.038
-0.234
-0.212
-0.214
Equivalised income (after housing costs) (ref. cat.: 1st quintile / bottom)
     
2nd
  
0.188*
0.183*
0.186*
3rd
  
0.233**
0.225*
0.231**
4th
  
0.330***
0.319***
0.326***
5th (top)
  
0.588***
0.553***
0.560***
Tertiary education qualification (dummy)
  
0.473***
0.459***
0.459***
Employment status (ref. cat.: In employment)
     
Retired
  
-0.455***
-0.456***
-0.458***
In education
  
0.382***
0.379***
0.384***-
Other
  
-0.069
-0.051
-0.053
Age group (ref.cat. 16–29 years old)
     
30–59 years old
  
-0.108
-0.099
-0.103
60–74 years old
  
-0.654***
-0.673***
-0.676***
75 + years old
  
-1.615***
-1.648***
-1.655***
Cohabiting couple (dummy)
  
0.224***
0.218***
0.224***
Female (dummy)
  
-0.879***
-0.885***
-0.886***
Responsible for children < 16 years old (dummy)
  
0.223***
0.215***
0.216***
Long-standing illness or disability (dummy)
  
-0.435***
-0.437***
-0.438***
Type of area (Ref.cat: C–Urban: City and Town)
     
A1–Urban: Major conurbation: London
   
-0.016
-0.018
A1–Urban: Major conurbation: Other
   
-0.518***
-0.519***
B1–Minor conurbation
   
-0.475***
-0.476***
D–Rural: Town and fringe
   
-0.039
-0.040
E– Rural: Village
   
0.159
0.158
F–Rural: Hamlets and isolated dwellings
   
0.162
0.161
Population density in LSOA (1000 s persons per hectare)
   
0.010
0.010
Total travel time to reach 8 essential services by bicycle (z-score)
   
0.080*
0.080*
Travel time to nearest rail station (hours)
   
-0.069*
-0.069*
Car ownership (household) (dummy)
    
-0.048
Driving licence (dummy)
    
0.010
Cutpoint/1
0.922***
0.920***
0.630***
0.492***
0.459**
Cutpoint/2
1.363***
1.363***
1.128***
0.995***
0.962***
Cutpoint/3
1.803***
1.803***
1.608***
1.497***
1.446***
Cutpoint/4
2.208***
2.209***
2.037***
1.911***
1.878***
Cutpoint/5
2.521***
2.522***
2.363***
2.238***
2.205***
Cutpoint/6
3.052***
3.053***
2.909***
2.786***
2.753***
Cutpoint/7
3.887***
3.889***
3.758***
3.637***
3.604***
Log-likelihood
-21,055
-21,024
-19,765
-19,672
-19,672
Wald χ2
7
44
1446
1531
1540
Prob. > χ2
(p = 0.079)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
(p < 0.001)
McFadden’s R2
0.0004
0.002
0.06
0.07
0.07
McKelvey & Zavoina’s R2
0.001
0.01
0.23
0.24
0.24
AIC
42,131
42,077
39,588
39,421
39,424
BIC
42,208
42,186
39,813
39,716
39,735
Significance levels: * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001
Compared to the reference group we find a negative association with “Asian or Asian British” and “Black or Black British” ethnicity, and a positive one with “Other Whites” (Model B). After controlling for social (Model C) the negative association between cycling and “Asian or Asian British” and “Black or Black British” ethnicity increases in magnitude and stay at the same level after controlling for spatial covariates (Model D). This suggests that people in these two main non-white ethnic minority groups use the bicycle less than the reference group despite their typical socio-economic characteristics and residential location (which should make them more inclined to cycle).
The coefficients associated with migration generation, ethnicity, and other control variables do not or only barely change when controlling for car ownership and driving licence ownership in Model E. This finding suggests that lower propensity to cycle among “Asian or Asian British” and “Black or Black British” and higher propensity to cycle among “Other White” is not related to or dependent on access and ability to drive cars but is rather explained by other factors.

Ethnic neighbourhood effects

To find out whether there is evidence of “ethnic neighbourhood effects”, as discussed in the literature, we estimated additional ordinal regression models. In addition to the predictors included in Model E above, they include the percentage of the “Non-White” ethnic groups among the neighbourhood residents (“Asian or Asian British”, “Black or Black British”, and “Other Non-White and Mixed”). For each of the travel modes (car, bus, bicycle) we estimated separate models for each ethnic group (Supplementary Material, Tables s5–s7). This allows us to identify proper ethnic neighbourhood effects, i.e., whether the propensity to use a travel mode for the member of a certain ethnic group is associated with the share of neighbourhood residents belonging to the same group.
We mostly find no statistically significant effect. Out of nine regression coefficients that would indicate an ethnic neighbourhood effect for “Non-White” ethnic groups, just two are significant. In detail, for respondents identifying as “Other Non-White and Mixed” an increase in the share of the neighbourhood’s population that also identifies as “Other Non-White and Mixed” is associated with less car use. For respondents identifying as “Asian or Asian British” a higher share of people from the same ethnic group in the neighbourhood is associated with less bicycle use. Note that in both cases, the effect of individual ethnic group identification (as identified in mode use Tables 24) and the ethnic neighbourhood effect identified here are in the same direction, as one would expect. Other coefficients that would indicate an ethnic neighbourhood effect are not statistically significant.
However, our analysis also shows evidence of some “cross-group effects” whereby a higher share of members of an ethnic group in the neighbourhood is associated with a change in the propensity to use a travel mode among members of another ethnic group. For example, a higher share of “Other Non-White and Mixed” residents in the neighbourhood is associated with less car use among “White British” and a higher share of “Black or Black British” residents in the neighbourhood is associated with more bus use among respondents who identify as “Asian or Asian British”. While these associations are difficult to interpret, we note that, out of eight statistically significant “cross-group” coefficients, four relate to the “Other Non-White and Mixed” group, and four to bus use, with only one relating to neither. We can speculate that the share of different ethnic groups in the neighbourhood (and particularly the share of the “Non-White and Mixed” group) might be associated with relevant factors that are not included in our analysis, such as e.g., variations in access to or supply of bus or rail-based public transport services. This would make the associations identified here spurious.

Discussion

In this paper, we investigated car, bus and bicycle use frequency in England, focusing on differences associated with migration background and ethnic group identification, and investigating to what extent these associations are accounted for by other factors. We summarise the main associations identified in the bi- and multivariate analyses in Fig. 1. Note that in the figure, the findings for the multivariate analysis refer to Model D in Tables 24, not Model E. This is explained as follows: we consider that car and driver licence ownership potentially act as mediating factors between our main independent variables of interest (ethnicity and migration background) and the outcomes of interest (mode use frequency). This implies that, in the fully adjusted models that controls for car and driver licence ownership (Model E), the coefficients for ethnicity and migration background are an underestimate of the true effects of these variables, part of which is direct, and part of which is indirect (i.e., mediated by car and driver licence ownership, which in turn influences mode choice). As such, we believe that the coefficients from Model D provide a better reference for estimating the impact of ethnicity and migration background on mode use frequency.
Fig. 1
Summary of the identified associations between migration background, ethnic minority group and mode use frequency. Legend: 0: no statistically significant difference; + : significantly more use; -: significantly less use. (i) bivariate analysis results are presented in detail in Table 1; multivariate results in Tables 24; (ii) for migration generation groups, effects are relative to the reference group “Third generation / no migration background”; for ethnic groups, effects are relative to the reference group “White British”; (iii) “1st migration generation (recent arrivals)” refers to respondents who arrived in the last 5 years for car use and bus use, to respondents who arrived in the last 10 years for bike use; (iv) Multivariate effects refer to Model D, which controls for socio-economic and spatial variables, but not household car ownership and driving licence; (v) the symbols depict the direction and statistical significance, but not the magnitude of the effect
Bild vergrößern
With regard to car use the bivariate analysis shows that 1st and 2nd generation migrants drive less than the reference group, with particularly low levels of car use among recent migrants. This is consistent with previous research (Delbosc and Shafi 2023). The multivariate analysis shows more nuanced patterns of association. For second generation migrants, there is no clear difference in car use once other factors are controlled for, similar to findings on car milage in the UK (Mattioli and Scheiner 2022) and car use among people with a migration background in Germany (Welsch 2018). For more established 1st generation migrants, who had been in the country for more than 5 years, lower levels of car use are accounted for mainly by differences in socio-economic factors. For more recent immigrants though, lower car use should rather be linked to lower car access and (valid) driving licence ownership in the first few years after arrival, which is consistent with the transport assimilation hypothesis.
In the bivariate analysis, all ethnic minority groups drive less on average than the White British majority. For most groups, this is explained by differences in socio-economic characteristics and residential location. As such, we find very little indication of other social or cultural effects, with the possible exception of the “Other Non-White and Mixed” group, for whom lower levels of car use persist even when controlling for all other factors. Due to the heterogeneous nature of this group, it is challenging to interpret this finding. Overall, car use is the travel mode for which we find the least indication of differences between ethnic groups. Note however that our analysis does not distinguish between drivers and passengers, so it might overlook higher rates of carpooling among certain ethnic groups which in the US context was found to be especially prevalent in ethnic neighbourhoods. Also, our analysis may overlook finer differences by gender, as some studies find that immigrant women tend to have a lower driving licence ownership and car use as drivers, but more car use as passengers, (Blumenberg and Smart 2014, Chatman and Klein 2013, Asgari et al. 2017; Shin 2017), perhaps because of the cost of driver’s licenses (Priya and Uteng 2009).
With regard to bus use, the bivariate analysis shows a positive association for 1st and 2nd migration generation and all ethnic groups. They use the bus more often than the reference groups. In the regression models, this association is explained by ethnicity and other control factors for 2nd generation and more established 1st generation migrants. For recent migrants, the association persists until the mediating factors of car access and driving licence ownership are controlled for. This is consistent with a transport assimilation effect whereby migrants use the bus in the first few years after arrival when they do not have access to cars, but then eventually get access to it and switch modes. For the ethnic groups “Other White” and “Asian or Asian British” higher levels of bus use are overwhelmingly due to differences in socio-economic characteristics and residential location. For the “Other Non-White and Mixed” and “Black or Black British” groups these factors account for only part of the association, which suggests that there might be other uncontrolled factors at play such as attitudes and socialisation, or concentration in areas poorly served by rail-based public transport and more reliant on buses such as South London (Sims et al. 2016, TfL 2019).
With regard to cycling, we find no significant differences between migration generations (in both analyses) other than for 1st generation immigrants who had been in the country for 10 years or less, who cycle significantly less often than others. The reasons for this are unclear but might be due to the perceived unsafe cycling conditions in the UK and/or to the particular cultural connotation of cycling in British culture, which is seen to be dominated by white male (Aldred et al. 2016; ETSC 2020, statista 2023), both of which might discourage migrants or members of ethnic minority groups to use this mode, as we discuss below. However, the absence of an effect for immigrants who had been in the UK for more than 10 years suggests that immigrants increase their cycling frequency over time and can also be interpreted in terms of transport assimilation.
We found significant differences in cycling frequency by ethnic group but in contrast to car and bus use these are not all in one direction. In the bivariate analysis, “Other Whites” cycle more, while “Asian or Asian British” and “Black or Black British” cycle less than the “White British” majority. These differences remain significant when controlling for socio-economic characteristics and residential location, suggesting that other uncontrolled factors play a role. This dovetails with findings from the US context, where a tendency for “white immigrants” to cycle more than the native born (white) population has been observed as well (Smart 2010; Hu et al. 2021).
Previous research suggests that soft factors such as attitudes and socialisation might play a larger role for cycling than for car and bus use. These factors might be more relevant in ethnic neighbourhoods (Welsch et al. 2018; Haustein et al. 2020) and for women, and include high risk perceptions (among low skilled/non-users) (Garrard et al. 2012; van der Kloof 2015; Mohammadi 2018; Prati et al. 2019). Other factors such as a perceived low status of bicycles as transport modes (Welsch 2022) might be a greater barrier to (young) men (as reported for “Asian or Asian British” by Batool and Pangbourne (2022) as well as discrimination or racialised policing for the “Black or Black British” group (Osei and Aldred 2023). Other factors not included in our analysis such as cycling skills, availability of a (suitable) bicycle or basic knowledge about traffic rules might also play a role. There is also evidence to suggest that safe routes, separated bicycle infrastructure and safe bicycle parking facilities tend be more lacking in areas with higher shares of ethnic minorities (Lusk et al. 2017; Vietinghoff 2021). For example, there is evidence to suggest that the “Black and Black British” group is spatially concentrated in areas with worse bicycle infrastructure provision such as South London (Bednarowska-Michaiel 2023; Osei and Aldred 2023). More broadly, the UK has very low cycling levels, which tend to correlate with a less diverse cyclist population with regards to type of cyclists gender, age or ethnicity (i.e., mainly white, male commuters or sportsmen) (Aldred et al. 2016; Goel et al. 2022). This might discourage from cycling people who do not identify as White because they perceive it as a social practice that is “not for someone like me” (Aldred and Jungnickel 2014; Barajas 2020; Batool and Pangbourne 2022; Osei and Aldred 2023). Conversely, higher levels of cycling among “Other Whites” might be explained by greater propensity to cycling in at least some of the countries these people originate from, such as e.g., other European countries.
Further studies could investigate both the vertical cultural transmission as well as possible horizontal cultural transmission similar to Marcén and Morales (2021), who studied the gender commuting gap by culture and cross-country differences. Horizontal transmission takes place through neighbours, friends or the ethnic communities and vertical one through parents, grandparents or other ancestors who probably instil values in their children. Mchitarjan (2015) points out that vertical cultural transmission also depends on someone’s own cultural identity. The children of immigrants, who do not cycle themselves, might thus face additional difficulties in having to learn how to cycle, despite their own families’ non-cycling mobility culture. For the children of the non-migrant majority, these difficulties could also occur when the family has a very car-oriented mobility culture.
With regard to ethnic density, the bivariate analysis shows higher levels of bicycle and bus use, and lower levels of car use, in neighbourhoods with a high share of ethnic minorities. Our analysis of ethnic neighbourhood effects, however, provides only little evidence of their existence (beyond the effect of individual ethnic group membership). We find suggestive evidence of “cross-group” effects, whereby a higher share of members of an ethnic group in the neighbourhood is associated with a change in the propensity to use a travel mode among members of another ethnic group. While the reasons for these associations are unclear, and we cannot rule out that they are spurious, they might be interesting to explore in future research.
In general, we find evidence that the travel behaviour of immigrants tends to converge towards the average of the population after the first few years. Such a transport assimilation effect is one of the common findings among studies on immigrant travel behaviour in various countries (Delbosc and Shafi 2023). Nevertheless, as the more advanced discussion in the US shows, apprehending the extent and the determinants of transport assimilation is complex, as the effect might vary depending on location, ethnic group and cohort. Thus, the process is discussed as a segmented assimilation, which varies in relation to different ethnic groups (e.g., Xu 2018; Yum 2019; Hu et al. 2021). Also, while our findings are consistent with the transport assimilation hypothesis, we cannot rule out that differences between more and less recent first-generation migrants are due to differences in the country of origin, which are obscured by our relatively aggregate ethnic group categories.
Our study provides (to the best of our knowledge) the first comprehensive multivariate analysis of the impact of ethnic minority and migration background on daily travel behaviour in a UK context. Compared to the international literature reviewed in Sect. "Literature on travel behaviour by immigration background or ethnicity", our study has several strengths as it: (i) investigates the impact of both ethnic minority and migration background, both of which are classified in detail; (ii) based on a large, nationally representative dataset in which ethnic minority groups and immigrants were oversampled to ensure a healthy sample size for these groups; (iii) controlling for a wide range of intervening factors, including detailed spatial information on accessibility by travel modes in the neighbourhood. This allowed us to explore the independent variable side in great detail. One limitation of the UKHLS dataset, however, is on the dependent variable side, as information on travel behaviour is collected in a rather simplified way, i.e., with questions on habitual mode use frequency. While the National Travel Survey (NTS) provides better information on travel behaviour in England, it is more limited in terms of availability of relevant independent variables and sample size, which is why we opted for analysing the UKHLS here.3 Future research could investigate the same questions using the NTS, providing triangulation for our findings.
Our analysis approach has two further limitations, which must be kept in mind when interpreting the results. First, we chose to analyse data from the most recent pre-COVID survey wave, in order to provide a baseline picture of the travel behaviour of these groups, which did not exist to date. However, travel behaviour has changed during and after the pandemic, in various countries including the UK. Notably, a reduction in work-related travel has been observed, along with a faster rebound effect for car use than public transport (the latter of which declined drastically during the pandemic), and active travel generally increased during the pandemic but the longer-term impacts on changes in travel mode use are not yet clear (Christidis et al. 2023; ITF 2023, Metz 2024, Lu 2024). For example, cycling decreased in England in 2023 to a pre-pandemic level but was at a peak in 2020 (DfT 2024b). In general, active travel also depends on local circumstances, e.g., whether walking and cycling conditions and infrastructure have been improved (Buehler and Pucher 2022; Buck 2023; Ortar and Rérat 2024). Whether and to what extent these changes in particular have affected individuals with ethnic minority and migration background deserves further investigation. We encourage future researchers to explore these changes, possibly using more recent waves of UKHLS, and the findings of our study as a baseline reference.
Second, our study provides initial evidence of a transport assimilation effect over the life course of migrants. However, as discussed in Sect. "Data", there are some issues concerning the sub-sample of recent migrants in the UKHLS. As such, there is some uncertainty surrounding those findings, which must be kept in mind. Overall, we believe this leads us to underestimate the extent of transport assimilation effects. While we hope that future research will be able to provide more solid representative findings on this point, this will require a deliberate oversampling of recent migrants in surveys, including notably panel surveys such as UKHLS. While the oversampling of ethnic minorities in UKHLS allows us to robustly analyse the main ethnic groups and their differences with regards to transport mode use, variations within each of these ethnic groups (due, e.g., to differences in national cycling cultures within Europe or Asia) are obscured in our analysis. Further research could also explore these differences in more detail and how that compares to other groups.

Conclusion

Overall, our analysis suggests that in England ethnic identification and migration background are two independent, and only loosely associated, determinants of travel behaviour. As such, there is value in exploring the effect of both simultaneously. At the same time, our findings suggest that ethnic identification is a more important factor than migration background. Besides the above discussed transport assimilation, our findings show that certain differences in transport mode use persist among ethnic minorities, a phenomenon which is also referred to as “immigration effect”. A large share of these differences has to do with the socio-economic composition and spatial distribution of these groups, and this is notably the case for car use. Yet for some ethnic groups and some modes, differences in travel behaviour remain significant after taking into account those factors and might be due to soft factors. As discussed above, this is particularly the case for lower levels of cycling among the main non-white ethnic minorities in England (i.e., “Asian and Asian British” and “Black and Black British”).
Our study sheds some light on the complex relationships between migration background, ethnicity and transport mode use, while also pointing at directions for future research in a British and European context. These could include: (i) similarities and difference within and among ethnic groups, including people who do not belong to the main ethnic minority groups; (ii) an investigation of intra- and inter-household carpooling; (iii) a better understanding of ethnic neighbourhood effects and how they play out, including possible “cross-group” effects; (iv) further investigation of the dynamics of migrant travel behaviour, based on longitudinal data; (v) qualitative research insights into socialisation, habits and experiences as well as underlying motives, values and attitudes and specific barriers to travel behaviour, such as the factors that currently prevent or discourage Non-White ethnic groups from cycling in England.
From a sustainable transport policy perspective, our results show that in a car-dependent society like the UK, migrants do not necessarily have more sustainable transport behaviour, as sometimes implied by earlier research (Klocker et al. 2015). While in an initial phase they drive less and use public transport more, their behaviour converges with that of the majority over time. Nevertheless, this particular life phase (the first years after arrival) could offer an interesting entry point for measures aimed at getting immigrants to maintain sustainable travel behaviour. These could build on the insights developed in mobility biographies research (Müggenburg et al. 2015). Our findings also suggest that measures to encourage active travel need to consider ethnic diversity and the cultural and socialisation factors that currently hinder cycling take-up among minority groups.
From a social policy perspective, lower car use among ethnic minorities can entail a risk of social exclusion–especially if there are few viable alternatives or these come with risks (such as exposure to infection during COVID-19; e.g., Long et al. 2023). If ethnic minorities are more reliant on buses, they are also more vulnerable to service cuts and price increases, both of which are ongoing trends in the UK. As such, we argue that transport policy needs to take into account distributional effects not just across income groups, but also across ethnic groups. At the same time, these groups seem to face greater barriers (both “hard” and “soft”) to cycling. Given the well-documented positive health effects of cycling, this could also be seen as an injustice that needs to be addressed.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback. Understanding Society is an initiative funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and various Government Departments, with scientific leadership by the Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, and survey delivery by NatCen Social Research and Kantar Public. The research data are distributed by the UK Data Service.

Declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.
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Titel
The impact of migration background and ethnicity on car, bus and bicycle use in England
Verfasst von
Janina Welsch
Giulio Mattioli
Publikationsdatum
04.12.2025
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Transportation
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Elektronische ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-025-10696-5

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
1
UKHLS includes a question on “How frequently do you use a train, not including underground, tram or light rail?”. This refers primarily to rail use for long-distance travel, which has rather different determinants than local and daily travel (Mattioli und Adeel 2021). As the latter is our main interest, we do not include the train variable in the analysis.
 
2
For the 15 ordinal models included in Tables 24, we obtain McKelvey & Zavoina’s R2 values ranging between 0.001 and 0.33. While the values for Models A and B are very low, this is only natural as these models only include one or two predictors (migration background and ethnicity). Clearly, these variables alone cannot provide high predictive power for the travel behaviour of the entire English population, as they are only one factor among many, and most of the population has no migration or ethnic minority background. We include these models not because of their predictive power, but to show the effect of these variables changes as we adjust for other intervening factors. The three fully adjusted models included in the main text (Model E) reach McKelvey & Zavoina’s R2 values between 0.24 and 0.33. The fully adjusted ordinal regression models included in the Supplementary material (Tables s5–s7) reach even higher values, ranging between 0.24 and 0.79. Note that Pseudo R2 metrics like McKelvey & Zavoina’s are not equivalent to and cannot be interpreted as R2 values for OLS models, as they tend by construction to reach much lower values, even when the theoretical range is 0–1 (Hu et al. 2006; Veall and Zimmerman 1996).
 
3
The NTS includes only about 1,470 respondents from non-White-ethnic group in the 2019 wave (DfT 2024a, unweighted sample), does not allow linking spatial attributes of the residential area at the LSOA-level, and does not include information on the country of birth of the respondent’s parents.
 
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