Weitere Kapitel dieses Buchs durch Wischen aufrufen
The nature of wars and warfare has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold Wars. The battles and proxy battles—fought between armed troops—that characterized the Cold Wars have given way to bloody and intercommunal conflicts in diverse places such as Angola, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Sudan, Iraq, Russia, Turkey, Rwanda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Bosnia. The post-Cold Wars period has been characterized by an outbreak of nationalism and the accentuation of national and religious identity, and since the end of the Cold Wars, the types of actors involved in the major hot spots of violent conflict in the world have changed; the issues in dispute have shifted; the methods and technologies of warfare have evolved. Clearly, these trends have important implications for the ways actors in the international system behave in managing and, no less importantly, in resolving their disputes. We present some findings regarding the leadership change-mediation/civil wars settlement relationship based on systematic analysis of leader shifts in civil wars. Finally, we briefly discuss the impact of leader changes on mediation in civil wars as it has manifested in conflicts in Asia, specifically the Philippines and Myanmar.
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten
Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:
Beardsley, Kyle. 2008. Agreement Without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems. American Journal of Political Science 52 (4): 723–740.
Beardsley, Kyle. 2010. Pain, Pressure, and Political Cover: Explaining Mediation Incidence. Journal of Peace Research 47 (4): 395–404. CrossRef
Beardsley, Kyle. 2011. The Mediation Dilemma. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Bercovitch, Jacob. 1986. International Mediation: A Study of Incidence, Strategies and Conditions of Successful Outcomes. Cooperation and Conflict 21 (3): 155–168. CrossRef
Bercovitch, Jacob, and Allison Houston. 1993. Influence of Mediator Characteristics and Behavior on the Success of Mediation in International Relations. International Journal of Conflict Management 4 (4): 297–321.
Bercovitch, Jacob, and Allison Houston. 2000. Why Do They Do It Like This? An Analysis of the Factors Influencing Mediation Behavior in International Conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (2): 170–202.
Bercovitch, Jacob, and A. Houston. 2006. Why Do They Do It Like This? An Analysis of the Factors Influencing Mediation Behavior in International Conflicts. In Conflict Resolution, ed. D. Druckman and P. Diehl, 227–261. London: Sage.
Bercovitch, Jacob, and Carmela Lutmar. 2010. Beyond Negotiation Deadlocks: The Importance of Mediation and Leadership Change. In Deadlocks in Multilateral Negotiations, ed. A. Narlikar, 232–253. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
Bercovitch, Jacob, and Karl DeRouen. 2005. Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation. Civil Wars 7 (1): 98–116.
Bercovitch, Jacob, J. Theodore Anagnoson, and Donnette L. Wille. 1991. Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations. Journal of Peace Research 28 (1): 7–17. CrossRef
Claude, Inis. 1971. Swords into Ploughshares. New York: Random House.
Collier, P., and A. Hoeffler. 2004. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 56 (4): 563–595. CrossRef
Cunningham, David E. 2010. Blocking Revolution: How External States Can Prolong Civil Wars. Journal of Peace Research 47 (2): 115–127. CrossRef
DeRouen, Karl R., and David Sobek. 2004. The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome. Journal of Peace Research 41 (3): 303–320.
DeRouen, Karl, and U.K. Heo. 2007. Civil Wars of the World: Major Conflicts Since World War II, vols. I and II. Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO.
Dixon, William. 1993. Democracy and the Management of International Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 (1): 42–68. CrossRef
Dixon, William. 1994. Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 88 (1): 14–32. CrossRef
Dixon, William J. 1996. Third Party Techniques for Preventing Conflict Escalation and Promoting Peaceful Settlement. International Organization 50 (4): 653–681. CrossRef
Doyle, M., and N. Sambanis. 2000. International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis. American Political Science Review 94 (4): 779–801. CrossRef
Edmead, F. 1971. Analysis and Prediction in International Mediation. London: Unitar.
Elbadawi, I., and N. Sambanis. 2002. How Much War Will We See? Explaining the Prevalence of Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (3): 307–334. CrossRef
Fearon, J., and D. Laitin. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90. CrossRef
Fortna, V. 2004. Peace Time: Ceasefire Arrangements and the Durability of Peace. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Glassmyer, Katherine, and Nicholas Sambanis. 2008. Rebel-Military Integration and Civil War Termination. Journal of Peace Research 45 (3): 365–384.
Goemans, Henk E., Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Giacomo Chiozza. 2009. Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders. Journal of Peace Research 46 (2): 269–283.
Greig, Michael. 2001. Moments of Opportunity: Sources of Ripeness Among Enduring Rivals. Journal of Conflict Resolution 45: 691–718. CrossRef
Greig, Michael J. 2005. Stepping into the Fray: When Do Mediators Mediate? American Journal of Political Science 49 (2): 249–266. CrossRef
Greig, Michael, and Regan Patrick. 2008. When Do They Say Yes? An Analysis of the Willingness to Offer and Accept Mediation in Civil Wars. International Studies Quarterly 52 (4): 759–781. CrossRef
Haass, R. 1984. Conflicts Unending, The United States and Regional Disputes. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Hartzell, Caroline A. 2009. Settling Civil Wars: Armed Opponents’ Fates and the Duration of the Peace. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (4): 347–365.
Hartzell, C., and M. Hoddie. 2003. Civil War Settlements and the Implementation of Military Power-Sharing Arrangements. Journal of Peace Research 40 (3): 303–320. CrossRef
Hartzell, C., M. Hoddie, and D. Rothchild. 2001. Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables. International Organizations 55 (1): 183–208. CrossRef
Hegre, H., and N. Sambanis. 2006. Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (4): 508–535. CrossRef
Hegre, H., T. Ellingsen, S. Gates, and N.P. Gleditsch. 2001. Toward a Democratic Civil Peace: Democracy, Political Change and Civil War, 1816–1992. American Political Science Review 95 (1): 17–33.
Joshi, Madhav, and T. David Mason. 2011. Civil War Settlements, Size of Governing Coalition, and Durability of Peace in Post-Civil War States. International Interaction 37: 388–413. CrossRef
Licklider, Roy. 1995. The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars. American Political Science Review 89 (3): 681–190.
Lieberfeld, Daniel. 1999. Talking with the Enemy: Negotiation and Threat Perception in South Africa and Israel/Palestine. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.
Lounsbery, Marie Olson, and Alethia H. Cook. 2011. Rebellion, Mediation, and Rebel Change: An Empirical Investigation of Competing Hypotheses. Journal of Peace Research 48 (1): 73–84. CrossRef
Lutmar, Carmela, and Lesley G. Terris. 2018. Introducing a New Dataset on Leadership Change in Rebel Groups 1946–2010. Working paper.
Maoz, Zeev, and Lesley Terris. 2006. Credibility and Strategy in International Mediation. International Interactions 32: 409–440. CrossRef
Mason, T., and P. Fett. 1996. How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (4): 546–568. CrossRef
Mitchell, Christopher. 2000. Gestures of Conciliation: Factors Contributing to Successful Olive Branches. London: Macmillan Press. CrossRef
Northedge, F., and M. Donelan. 1971. International Disputes, the Political Aspects. London: Europa Publications.
Olson, Marje, and Frederic Pearson. 2002. Civil War Characteristics, Mediators and Resolution. Conflict Resolution Quarterly 19 (4): 421–445. CrossRef
Ott, M. 1972. Mediation as a Method of Conflict Resolution: Two Cases. International Organization 26 (4): 595–618. CrossRef
Pruitt, Dean. 1981. Negotiation Behavior. New York: Academic Press.
Regan, Patrick M. 2002. Third Party Intervetion and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (1): 55–73.
Regan, P., and A. Stam. 2000. In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes. International Studies Quarterly 44 (2): 239–260. CrossRef
Sambanis, N. 2004. Using Case Studies to Expand Economic Models of Civil War. Perspectives on Political Science 2 (2): 259–279.
Schelling, Thomas. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Sollenberg, M., and P. Wallensteen. 2001. Major Armed Conflicts. Journal of Peace Research 38 (5): 629–644.
Stedman, Stephen John. 1991. Peacemaking in Civil Wars: International Mediation in Zimbabwe. Boulder, CO: Lynne Reinner.
Terris, Lesley G. 2017. Mediation of International Conflicts: A Rational Model. New York and London: Routledge.
Terris, Lesley, and Zeev Maoz. 2005. Rational Mediation: A Theory and a Test. Journal of Peace Research 42 (5): 463–483. CrossRef
Tiernay, Michael. 2015. Killing Kony: Leadership Change and Civil War Termination. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (2): 175–206.
Walter, Barbara F. 1997. The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51 (3): 335–364. CrossRef
Walter, Barbara F. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- The Missing Link: Patterns in Leadership Changes and Mediation in Civil Wars
Lesley G. Terris
- Chapter 3
Neuer Inhalt/© Stellmach, Neuer Inhalt/© Maturus, Pluta Logo/© Pluta