Weitere Kapitel dieses Buchs durch Wischen aufrufen
This concluding chapter explains how the forces unleashed by the new nexus of the multinational enterprises (MNEs), foreign direct investment (FDI), and global value chains (GVCs) have been shifting the gravity of the world economy towards developing countries, and how, as an inevitable consequence of such forces, the fortunes of the North and the South are being reversed in the twenty-first century.
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten
Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:
As W. W. Rostow (1960) pointed out, Western countries joined the bandwagon of industrialization in quick succession—industrial take-off took place in the UK during 1783–1802, in France during 1830–1860, in Belgium during 1833–1860, in the US during 1843–1860, in Germany during 1850–1873, in Sweden during 1868–1890, in Japan during 1878–1900, in Russia during 1890–1914, and in Canada during 1896–1914 (cited in Baldwin 2012).
Although Japan produced about 3.5 percent of global GDP at that time, the country’s trade was still highly dependent on the North. In 1887, about 90 percent of Japan’s external trade was handled by foreigners, mainly British companies, and foreign companies also provided auxiliary services to Japan in shipping, banking, and marine insurance facilities (Tolentino 2000, 173; Maddison 1969; Yonekawa 1985).
In 2012, India was the only other large industrializing economy that kept pace with China—its MVA grew by 7.4 percent in average. In 2012, India emerged as the second leading manufacturer among industrializing economies, superseding Mexico and Brazil—both countries’ MVA shares among industrializing economies fell sharply in recent years (UNIDO 2013).
Although employment in manufacturing production has been declining in industrialized countries, employment in manufacturing-related services has not. Between 1995 and 2009, the share of employment in manufacturing and manufacturing-related services in the total employment in North America increased from 29 percent to 32 percent (UNIDO 2013).
About 58 percent of the world’s manufactured exports however still consists of medium- and high-tech products—such as chemical machinery and equipment, communication equipment, and motor vehicles—in which developed countries dominate. In 2014, the most competitive countries were Germany, Japan, Korea, and the US (UNIDO 2016).
Forward participation in GVCs—domestically produced inputs used in third countries’ exports—has also increased from 27 percent to 43 percent during the 1995–2011 period. See Chap. 5 for further details.
The magnitude of such reexports and reimports depends on individual countries, but it is approaching at least 50 percent in average across the world. As discussed in Chap. 5, the average shares of reexported intermediate imports in all intermediate imports across countries covered by the TiVA database jumped from 37.2 percent in 1995 to 44.8 percent in 2011, while the average shares of reimported intermediate imports increased from 49 percent to 50 percent during the same period.
Taglioni and Winkler ( 2014) suggest a strategic framework for developing nations to join and upgrade under GVC networks. The framework identifies three focus areas—entering GVCs, expanding and strengthening participation in GVCs, and turning them into sustainable development—and links those focus areas with specific objectives, strategic questions, and policy options.
Ando, M., and F. Kimura. 2005. The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia. NBER Working Paper No. 10167.
Antràs, P., and S. Yeaple. 2014. Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade. In Handbook of International Economics, ed. G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, and K. Rogoff, vol. 4, 55–130. North Holland: Elsevier.
Baldwin, R. 2008. Managing the Noodle Bowl: The Fragility of East Asian Regionalism. The Singapore Economic Review 53 (3): 449–478. CrossRef
———. 2012. Global Supply Chains: Why They Emerged, Why They Matter, and Where They Are Going. CEPR Discussion Papers 9103.
Baldwin, R., T. Ito, and H. Sato. 2014. The Smile Curve: Evolving Sources of Value Added in Manufacturing. http://www.uniba.it/ricerca/dipartimenti/dse/e.g.i/egi2014-papers/ito
Baldwin, R., and A. Venables. 2013. Spiders and Snakes: Offshoring and Agglomeration in the Global Economy. Journal of International Economics 90 (2): 245–254. CrossRef
Bayoumi, T. 2011. Changing Patterns of Global Trade. International Monetary Fund. IMF Working Paper. Washington, DC. June.
Christ, N., and M. Ferrantino. 2011. Land Transport for Exports: The Effects of Cost, Time, and Uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development 39 (10): 1749–1759. CrossRef
Dicken, P. 2011. Global Shift: Reshaping the Global Economic Map in the 21st Century. 5th ed. London: Sage Publications.
Fontagné, L., and J. Fouré. 2013. Opening a Pandora’s Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035. CEPII Working Paper, No. 22.
Frank, A. 1978. Dependent Accumulation and Underdevelopment. London: Macmillan Press. CrossRef
Hummels, D. 2007. Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization. Journal of Economic Perspectives 21 (3): 131–154. CrossRef
Johansson, A., and E. Olaberria. 2014. Global Trade and Specialization Patterns Over the Next 50 Years. OECD Economic Policy Paper No. 10. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Maddison, A. 1969. Economic Growth in Japan and the USSR. New York: W. W. Norton.
Manyika, J., M. Chui, J. Bughin, R. Dobbs, P. Bisson, and A. Marrs. 2013. Disruptive Technologies: Advances That Will Transform Life, Business, and the Global Economy. Washington, DC: McKinsey Global Institute.
Michalopoulos, C., and F. Ng. 2013. Trends in Developing Country Trade 1980–2010. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6334. CrossRef
Morrison, A., C. Pietrobelli, and R. Rabellotti. 2008. Global Value Chains and Technological Capabilities: A Framework to Study Learning and Innovation in Developing Countries. Oxford Development Studies 36 (1): 39–58. CrossRef
OECD. 2016. Global Value Chains and Trade in Value-Added: An Initial Assessment of the Impact on Jobs and Productivity. OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 190. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Taglioni, D., and D. Winkler. 2014. Making Global Value Chains Work for Development. Economic Premise. World Bank. Number 143. May.
Tolentino, P. 2000. Multinational Corporations: Emergence and Evolution. London: Routledge. CrossRef
UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization). 2013. Industrial Development Report 2013. Vienna: UNIDO.
———. 2016. Industrial Development Report 2016. The Role of Technology and Innovation in Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development. Vienna: UNIDO.
Wallerstein, I. 1979. Capitalist World-Economy. London: Cambridge University Press.
WEF (World Economic Forum). 2013. Enabling Trade: Valuing Growth Opportunities. Geneva. World Bank. Various years. Logistics Performance Index.
Yonekawa, S. 1985. The Formation of General Trading Companies: A Comparative Study. Japanese Yearbook on Business History, 1–31.
- The New Nexus of FDI–MNEs–GVCs and the Transformation of Global Prosperity
Neuer Inhalt/© Stellmach, Neuer Inhalt/© Maturus, Pluta Logo/© Pluta