8. The Potential for District Heating Based on Renewable Energy: A Spatial Analysis

The German government intends to cover the demand for primary energy by 16% of renewable energy in Germany in the year 2020, and to reduce CO₂- emissions by 40% as opposed to the year 1990. One relevant CO₂ emitter is energy sector which has a big potential to achieve this target. On the other hand, the demographic change will strongly influence the heat supply system, a part of the heat sector. The following chapter analyses the challenges that arise by the decreasing heat demand due to demographic change and the need for a modified heat supply system based on renewable energies to attain the given target. This is done by a spatial analysis using Geographical Information System taking into account the actual and future heat demand, the existing infrastructure stock and the potential of renewable energy (mainly solar, biomass and geothermal). The analysis shows that the decreasing heat demand in general is a critical precondition for network-bound heat supply infrastructure and that renewable energies can help in selected regions to provide CO₂-neutral heat using existing or new district heat systems.