The Power of the Chinese Dragon

China’s rapid ascent into the ranks of the global economic powers generally elicits marvel at its fortitude and doggedness, and also engenders concerns over the costs for the people, land and other natural resources that undergird this growth. This is particularly so as China extends its economic and political reach beyond its borders and to ever more distant regions. Perhaps nowhere do such attitudes converge so starkly, but also where ambivalence is compounded so immeasurably, as in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Trade is one of the key channels through which Chinese economic growth affects the world economy and especially developing countries. African manufacturing sector is confined to few traditional sectors. Even if at times, and in some sectors, African exports have been favored by preferential treatments, Africa has proven to be particularly vulnerable to the competitive threat posed by China in third markets, including other African countries. With the intensification of economic relations, in fact, China has started flooding African markets with its low-cost manufactures, often at the expense of local producers. Furthermore, in Africa’s main trade partners, namely United States and European Union, most Chinese goods are likely to crowd-out cheap African manufactures. We measure the indirect impact of China on African exports. Using disaggregated data for the period 1995–2005, we present significant evidence on the existence of a displacement effect at different levels: sector, product, region and market.

The implications of China’s growth for the development prospects of sub-Saharan Africa have been the subject of recent attention. Interest in this topic is motivated by the increasing presence of China in the region, which in turn is reflected in the growing bilateral trade links. Against this background, this paper explores whether China’s growth has stimulated agricultural exports in selected countries of Southern Africa, namely, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, the Southern African Custom Unions and Zambia. We find little complementarity between China’s agricultural import demand and the Southern African (SA) countries’ agricultural export supply. We also explore the possibility of China affecting SA agricultural exports through higher world agricultural prices associated with China’s growing demand for food. We find that, although China has moderately increased agricultural prices (in an aggregated sense), SA exports do not seem to benefit from these price increases.

This paper analyses the impact of China-Africa trade relations both at the aggregate African and at the national level of a selected sample of countries. The paper confirms that there are both trade-related gains and losses arising from China-Africa trade relations. Beyond this is the concern that the existing pattern of Africa-China trade — which continues to be strengthened by China’s rising profile — does not correspond to the region’s longer term objectives, that is, to diversify its economic and trade structure and ensure that trade contributes to the industrial development of African countries. This paper suggests that for many African countries, the negative effects may outweigh the positive ones. Hence, concerted policy measures may need to be taken in particular African countries, carefully crafted in each case to suit specific circumstances. In broad terms, the menu of policy measures could include those aimed at gaining enhanced market access to the Chinese market as well as those targeted at eliminating the binding supply response capacity constraints.

China’s role in African development is much debated among academics as well as among private sector organisations, trade unions and politicians. Notwithstanding the recent upsurge of interest, the lion’s share of the current studies on ‘China in Africa’ is still based on a combination of aggregate figures and sporadic information from news agencies. Although much of the hysteria surrounding the ‘China in Africa’ debate has now evaporated — at least from the scholarly debate — the local debate is highly politicised and of a very dichotomous nature: China is either seen as benign or malign to African development efforts. This paper seeks to go beyond this dichotomous view by examining the multifaceted nature of Chinese investments in two sectors of the Zambian economy. It argues that these investments to a large extent resemble other foreign investments but the sheer size and growth of the investments trigger local reactions.

In the context of widespread interest in the impact of Chinese investment in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA), this paper focuses on SSA’s engagement with large state-owned Chinese firms investing in SSA’s resource and infrastructure sectors. Evidence is provided on the extent of different types of Chinese investment, before focusing on the distinctive character of large scale state-owned Chinese investors, whose investments are closely bundled with aid and trade. The paper concludes that SSA countries should maximise the opportunities opened to them by their resource-base by adopting a similarly integrated and focused response to Chinese (and other large) investors who seek to draw on the continent’s natural resources.

This paper evaluates the growing presence of China’s private business sector in Africa. Currently, attention focuses on China’s state-owned enterprises in extractive industries. Less attention is paid to Chinese private enterprises. This study fills a knowledge-gap by evaluating characteristics and motivations of Chinese private firms in Africa, and assesses their development impacts. Key findings are that the Chinese private firms have followed their own paths to Africa, and the primary factors driving private investment are African market opportunities, competition within China and the presence of a strong entrepreneurial spirit. An effective mechanism bridging a gap between China’s African Policy and its implementation in terms of private sector engagement is lacking. To maximise development gains, a top-down and bottom-up ‘two-way street’ approach to Chinese public-private sector relations is necessary. This is a mutual learning process for the Chinese public and private sectors and also China-Africa relations. These are fluid relationships with each adapting to and shaping the other.

Migration from China to Africa has intensified of late on the back of initiatives by the Chinese government. Despite being a significant issue, there has been no systematic attempt to assess the economic, social and political impacts of it. This paper begins by setting out broad analytical dimensions covering the motivations to migrate and wider processes of development. The paper then assesses available data on migration trends, which are marked by speculation. Two further sections cover the policies of China towards internationalisation and Africa and the economic and sociopolitical dimensions, respectively. Economically, many large-scale Chinese firms operate in key resource sectors, but for most Africans, the Chinese presence is marked by traders in the markets. Socially, the Chinese have been welcomed in Africa although integration has been limited. However, tensions have arisen in some countries and have been exploited by African politicians.

This introductory essay situates the subsequent special issue within a comparative framework that helps to unpack the new global politics of development. It argues that there is a set of countries beyond Brazil, Russia, India and China — often described as ‘the BRICs’ — that are emerging to a position of increased international prominence and which merit greater attention than they have hitherto received. Recent economic risers such as South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico are responding to their economic growth and seeking to secure greater influence within regional and global affairs. The analytical framework developed here distinguishes between four distinct strategies of inter national engagement: issue leading, opportunity seeking, region organising and region mobilising. The framework further suggests the need to focus on new global opportunities and pressures, as well as the specific interests and capacities of states when accounting for the adoption of a particular strategy of engagement.

Globalisation is transforming the nature of authority in international relations, as hegemony is replaced by geo-governance, involving a more varied set of actors. However, private authority over markets and resources is still often constituted and refracted through states. Much has been written in this respect about China and India’s rising role in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but South Africa remains a highly significant regional political and economic player. Facilitated through its regional leadership, it has also recently acceded to the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) cooperation mechanism, reflecting its growing international influence and the transforming nature of global governance. This article explores ‘South African’ geo-governance and its impacts in SSA to consider the nature and construction of South African state power, and its international influence. It concludes with some reflections on the way the South African case informs international relations and development theory.

China’s Africa policy has affected the EU’s relations with China and Africa. In response, the EU proposed trilateral cooperation to focus on synergies of the EU’s and China’s contribution to Africa’s development. This study conceptualises from an IR perspective this triangular relationship beyond well-known empirical or economic approaches to China’s Africa policy. It looks at what kind of actor China is in Africa, and whether China is in Africa because it is strong or weak and what the trilateral approach of the EU implies for Africa as a player in international relations.