In the study of commercial health insurance, like medical insurance, the incidence of disease and the prediction of it are significant for the research and development of new insurance products, the determination of premium rate, company pro-fit. Meanwhile, due to the complication and fuzziness of moral hazard and the health condition of the insured, the incidence of disease has always been one of the research difficulties in this realm. In this paper, first, we use triangle fuzzy number and Fuzzy conditional probability to represent the health state and incidence of disease of the insured in different age groups. Then we suppose that whether the insured man has disease will not have aftereffects, and discuss the transition probability and the incidence of disease. Finally, we predict and analyses the incidence of disease by simulating data, and offer an effective way to study the incidence of disease of insured man.
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- The Study on the Incidence of Disease Based on Fuzzy Markov Chain
- Springer Berlin Heidelberg