The use of diachronic spatial approaches and predictive modelling to study the vegetation dynamics of a managed heathland

According to the EU Habitats Directive, heathlands are a semi-natural habitat type of community interest. This status aims at conserving these habitats, especially where and when they are threatened by various changes, including natural vegetation succession. We present results of a study of the dynamics of a typical dry heathland plot located in the Fontainebleau massif (France). An exhaustive observation of vegetation changes were made on this area of four hectares between 2000 and 2008, employing a spatial approach. We recorded the expansion of Molinia caerulea (L.) Moench at the expense of Ericaceae. The potential future vegetation of the site was modelled using Markov chains coupled to a GIS programme. This model predicted a gradual change in the floristic composition of heathland in favour of M. caerulea at the expense of Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull and Erica tetralix L., and the expansion of Pinus sylvestris L. The study demonstrates how spatial methods can contribute to the design of reliable management methods of habitats such as the heathlands.