The Use of Statistical Methods for Operational and Strategic Forecasting in European Industry

Forecasting is essential for business managers, economists, scientists and engineers. Forecasting techniques range from purely subjective guesses to complex quantitative techniques.As a recent investigation shows (Lewandowski (1996)), 90% of European companies with an annual turnover of more than 200 million ECU will have to use efficient sales planning and forecasting systems in marketing, logistics, production and in the financial sector in the next ten years for their operational and strategic planning, in order to guarantee their necessary productivity improvement.Great advances in the techniques used in forecasting have been made over the last few decades, partly due to the greater use of computer methods and systems for the processing of these statistics. However, it is still largely the case that these, often basic methods, are not employed in organisations because of the lack of skilled statisticians and experts to carry out the analysis, and the difficulties integrating forecasting systems in the management systems.In this paper we present FORCE4 a system for the use of advanced and powerful statistical techniques for forecasting, including seasonal analysis. The system is aimed at a wide spectrum of final users in industry, government and service organisations. The system is adapted to the role that forecasting plays in any organisation’s strategy.