The Use of Type-2 Fuzzy Sets to Assess Delays in the Implementation of the Daily Operation Plan for the Operating Theatre

In the paper we present a critical time analysis of the project, in which there is a risk of delay in commencing project activities. We assume that activity times are type-2 fuzzy numbers. When experts estimate shapes of membership functions of times of activities, they take into account both situations when particular activities of the project start on time and situations when they start with a delay. We also suggest a method of a sensitivity analysis of these delays to meeting the project deadline. We present a case study in which the critical tome analysis was used to analyse processes implemented in the operating ward of a selected hospital in the South of Poland. Data for the empirical study was collected in the operating theatre of this hospital. This made it possible to identify non-procedural activities at the operating ward that have a significant impact on the duration of the entire operating process. In the hospital selected for testing implementation of the daily plan of surgeries was at risk every day. The research shows that the expected delay in performing the typical daily plan - two surgeries in one operating room – could be about 1 h. That may result in significant costs of overtime. Additionally, the consequence may also include extension of the queue of patients waiting for their surgeries. We show that elimination of occurrence of surgery activity delays allows for execution of the typical daily plan of surgeries within a working day in the studied hospital.