Towards Energy System Resilience

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

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2. Introduction

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 1. Shaping and Monitoring Resilient Energy Systems—An Introduction

      • Open Access

      Davy van Doren

      Abstract

      Although recent years have tragically demonstrated the effect of climate change on the probability and intensity of extreme weather-related incidents, it has been argued that associated systemic collapse can often be partly attributed to inadequate risk assessment and management practices. As such, there is need for improved governance approaches that are better suited to deal with the uncertain scope and timing of high-stress situations, as well as with the general unpredictable dynamic being characteristic for complex systems. In this introduction, we focus on the form and function of monitoring and digitalisation solutions within the context of developing resilient energy systems. For this, we identify associated main themes and characterise these along the dimensions of understanding, governing, and operationalising resilience in energy systems, as well as introduce various contributions contained in this work that elaborate in-depth on specified topics.

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3. Understanding of Resilience

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 2. Coping with Complexity—A Systems Approach to Resilience

      • Open Access

      Ortwin Renn, Matthias Kaiser, Arnim von Gleich

      Abstract

      Resilience in this chapter is defined as the ability of a socio-technical system to sustain or quickly recover its services to society even under the condition of major stress. Resilience includes a preventive aspect (sustain service functionality) as well as a crisis-management aspect (recover quickly). It may be used to characterize a system (descriptive), but it may also serve as a normative concept to improve a system towards a more resilient stage, such as building back better. It includes technical design criteria as well as organizational and institutional performance. Finally, resilience implies a dynamic approach based on social and institutional learning The paper distinguishes four different modes of resilience: (i) building back better; (ii) adaptive; (iii) transformative and (iv) biomimetic. Based on complexity theory, the paper advocates a dynamic, comprehensive and transformative perspective when analysing or designing energy systems.

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   3. Chapter 3. Biomimetic Resilience—Performance Claim, Concept and Design Principles

      • Open Access

      Arnim von Gleich, Bernd Giese

      Abstract

      The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of biomimetic resilience and to elaborate the differences to resilience concepts based on established risk management. First, we briefly reconsider what biomimetics is all about and examine two important sources of biomimetic resilience design principles, evolution and ecosystem theory. Then, being aware that biomimetics is not an easy undertaking, we discuss restrictions for the transfer from natural role models to socio-techno-economic implementations. Finally, we discuss the claim of biomimetic resilience to offer a solution path to prepare for real surprises (unknown unknowns) in the sense of a far-reaching precautionary principle.

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   4. Chapter 4. System and Context

      • Open Access

      Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Sigrid Prehofer

      Abstract

      Systems are always embedded in environments with which they interact and which influence their behaviour—sometimes to a limited extent, but often in a formative way. This also applies to the resilience behaviour of energy systems, which means that the resilience of an energy system can never be solely a property of the system itself and its architecture, but also arises or fails as a product of the interaction between system and context. The chapter describes the analytical gaps that result from disregarding the system-context problem and some approaches to dealing with the system-context problem that can be observed in practice. The context-scenario approach is then presented in more detail and its application in the ReMoDigital project is outlined.

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4. Governance of Resilience

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 5. Risk, Resilience and Precaution

      • Open Access

      Ortwin Renn

      Abstract

      Almost all definitions of the precautionary principle emphasize the need for regulatory measures (actions) before it is established beyond doubt that an “intolerable" risk exists. Such measures are even more necessary the greater the depth of intervention is and the more irreversible the consequences may be. Risk mitigation in this case is not related to a reduction of risk, but rather to a policy that avoids irreversibility as much as possible. In the international literature, this approach is also popularly referred to as resilience strategy. In terms of assessment, it includes the need for conservative estimates in characterizing uncertainty and in terms of risk management it implies the need for ensuring opportunities for adapting to new situations, surprises and unexpected stress.

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   3. Chapter 6. Resilience and Values—A Conceptual Approach

      • Open Access

      Matthias Kaiser

      Abstract

      How does human behaviour influence societal resilience in the face of sudden shocks? In the following chapter this question is approached from the angle of human/social values. It is argued that our values are providing us with important orientations and are defining our social identities. The diversity of social identities is, in turn, defining the responsive pattern with which a society meets a shock. Despite the recognition that human behaviour can either be dominated by a rational and reflective decision pattern or by an automated and/or group respectively cultural norm-driven decision pattern, the system of societal value landscapes provide a key to understand or possibly strengthen societal resilience. It is argued that the complexity of these systems needs to be studied with a multi-system approach, which also forms the basis for advanced models of social learning. With more sophisticated models of societal complexities and learning, improving societal resilience through active public engagement can be possible.

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   4. Chapter 7. Governance of Energy Infrastructures: Comparing Planning Cultures in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Germany

      • Open Access

      Jörg Knieling

      Abstract

      The transition to 100% renewable energy requires the development of new technical infrastructures. In the light of this challenge, the governance of energy infrastructures becomes a pivotal issue, and the paper discusses how conflicts in the planning and implementation process can be resolved more effectively. It describes different approaches to communicative governance and planning in three European countries, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, and outlines the specific characteristics and outlines the advantages and disadvantages of each. A comparative analysis of these three approaches reveals a strong correlation between the governance of energy infrastructure and national planning cultures. This encompasses both visible artefacts of energy planning and the planning and social environment, which includes traditions, path dependencies and current challenges. The paper concludes with a discussion of the potential contributions of the convergence of planning systems in Europe to enhanced governance of energy infrastructure, along with a consideration of the limitations that must be taken into account. It is recommended that future research address the following open questions regarding the governance of energy infrastructure: firstly, the zero option in decision-making; secondly, the binding effect of early conflict resolution in the subsequent planning process; and thirdly, the neutrality of the organisation responsible for public participation.

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   5. Chapter 8. Energy Resilience as a Participative Process

      • Open Access

      Gabriele Fohr

      Abstract

      In energy system analysis, we usually employ models—most often techno-economic, optimising models—to create possible future scenarios. Linked to the models are often qualitative storylines: narratives of plausible socio-economic future pathways that serve as input assumptions for the models. However, despite this approach of integrating social, behavioural and political elements into the models, the ability of present energy system models to measure resilience is limited. We know that in case of complex, uncertain, or even ambiguous problems, we cannot adequately assess, and legitimately decide upon, a system without involving a wider public to answer critical, sometimes ethical questions, such as: can we imagine and agree upon a minimum system functionality or an allocation of resources in case of a blackout? In this paper, a process view on resilience is highlighted that brings together both perspectives—modelling and participative—in an analytic-deliberative approach (National Research Council 1996; Renn 2008). Within a process that complements analytic findings with deliberation, the quality and legitimacy of decisions, as well as the decision-making capacity of a social system would improve. A rough idea of where to implement deliberative elements into an energy resilience monitoring process is addressed.

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   6. Chapter 9. Resilience in the System of Infrastructure Law

      • Open Access

      Martin Wickel

      Abstract

      Resilience is of increasing importance in the development and operation of technical infrastructure. In this chapter, we show how resilience can be embedded in the structure of infrastructure law. We analyse substantive law as the legal basis for responding to resilience requirements. And we look at the legal instruments for implementing these substantive requirements. The example we have chosen to explore this issue is electricity infrastructure. So, we look at electricity generation plants, transmission lines and electricity networks. Due to the heterogeneous structure of infrastructure law, different areas of law such as energy law, emission control law and the law of planning approval will be covered. Different substantive requirements, such as dynamic basic obligations (emission control law) or the NOVA principle (energy law) will be addressed. In the same way, different instruments of implementation, such as permit requirements, ex-post interventions, monitoring, planning and procedures will be analysed. The analysis is guided by the question of whether these legal concepts are able to accommodate the elements of resilience, in particular resistance, robustness and adaptability.

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   7. Chapter 10. Resilience, Shock Prevention, and Interacting Systems: Economic Aspects of ReMoDigital

      • Open Access

      Thomas H. W. Ziesemer

      Abstract

      This chapter starts with the development of a resilience index covering prevention, vulnerability, and prevention. A graphical presentation shows that it covers high-impact rare events (HIRE) as well as low impact high probability cases. The index is then compared to those in engineering, geography, and economics. Reducing shock probabilities and vulnerability and speeding up recovery is costly. Maximization of the index under a resilience-budget constraint shows how expenditures should be well balanced over the three aspects. Numerical and historical examples are constructed and discussed to illustrate the principles. Interactions of systems like digitalization and electricity are considered more broadly for eleven interacting systems. Incentives and policies regarding investment in resilience are described also regarding the international dimension. We provide a simple empirical vector-error correction model for German data in electricity, consumption, GDP per capita and oil prices, which is stable in growth rates. Shock analysis through impulse-response functions show cases of no return to baseline after negative shocks, and long-run overshooting for all variables after a negative shock to GDP per capita, supporting the possibility of the idea of coming out stronger out of a crisis, called super resilience. Policy suggestions from the literature are collected in a separate section.

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5. Operationalisation of Resilience

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 11. Indicators for the Resilience Monitoring of Energy Systems

      • Open Access

      Henning Wigger, Gandhi Pragada, Henrik Netz, Urte Brand-Daniels

      Abstract

      Indicators are crucial for any management as they allow for monitoring, reviewing and adapting strategies towards a previously planned objective. The key challenge for fulfilling this task is to identify and define indicators that enable the assessment of the system under consideration. Regarding energy systems, if understood as complex socio-technical systems, a multitude of indicators for resilience assessments have been proposed, which vary according to the different systems analysed as well as indicators and stakeholder requirements. Hence, it seems that universal indicator frameworks are not applicable for resilience assessments and thus specific indicators are needed. However, a crucial step towards developing a general resilience assessment and monitoring framework is to understand on which aspects indicators depend, what “good” indicators can cover and what the limits of these indicators are. Therefore, this chapter gives an insight into the general characteristics of indicators. Then, it describes the indicator requirements particularly with respect to the resilience (monitoring) for energy systems. Furthermore, the chapter will address some specifics for the resilience assessment and management of energy systems based on some exemplary indicators.

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   3. Chapter 12. Resilience of Digitalised Power Systems—Challenges and Solutions

      • Open Access

      Michael Brand, Sanja Stark, Stefanie Holly, Jirapa Kamsamrong, Christoph Mayer, Sebastian Lehnhoff

      Abstract

      Power systems are undergoing a transition from centralised generation to distributed renewable generation. That calls for more flexibility in balancing generation and consumption because distributed energy resources in most cases rely on weather-dependent resources and can, therefore, only be controlled to a certain degree. The necessary flexibility can be achieved by introducing digitalisation. However, digitalisation also leads to new vulnerabilities of the power system and increases its complexity. Additionally, the often rapid and unforeseeable development of information and communication technology introduces a new level of uncertainty in the system design. These circumstances make it necessary to shift from a classical design of robust to the design of resilient power systems that are able to anticipate, react to, and recover from them. In this paper, these real-time attributes of a resilient digitalised power system are analysed with respect to potential measures: an enhanced situational awareness, virtualisation, flexibilisation, and a distributed black start. The measures tackle different challenges for resilient digitalised power systems and cover different phases of the resilience process, visualised in the so-called resilience bathtub curve. The implementation of these measures can increase the resilience of a digitalised power system and are meant to be combined with further, also non-real-time measures.

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   4. Chapter 13. Using Optimising Infrastructure Planning Models for the Resilience Assessment of Future Integrated Energy Systems

      • Open Access

      Hans Christian Gils, Madhura Yeligeti

      Abstract

      Optimising energy system models are often used to derive roadmaps for redesigning energy systems from climate targets. When considering large-scale, i.e. national or continental systems, these models usually focus on the minimisation of economic costs. As a result of the ongoing transformation, energy systems are increasingly characterised by the extensive and decentralised use of renewable energies, far-reaching digitalisation and the integration of the previously mostly separate sub-systems of electricity, heat and fuel supply. The associated structural changes also have an impact on the resilience requirements of the corresponding energy systems. This chapter addresses the effects of the transformation on the resilience of future energy systems. In doing so, it evaluates the possibilities and requirements for a structured resilience analysis with optimising energy system models. Based on this, it derives a modelling procedure for a systematic stress test analysis. Furthermore, this chapter discusses the limitations in the usage of such models in resilience analysis arising from structural as well as data-related aspects.

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   5. Chapter 14. Implementing Resilience Strategies in Future Digitally Interconnected Distribution Grids

      • Open Access

      Karen Derendorf, Peggy Bergmann, Ghinwa Harb, Karsten von Maydell

      Abstract

      One challenge in future digitally interconnected distribution power grids is that the digitalisation introduces the possibility of malfunctions, such as ICT network failures, which might lead to grid instabilities. Additionally, the rising complexity of the systems makes it harder to predict and respond to potential disruptions. Possible solutions for enhancing resilience in digitalized distribution grids are integrated fallback behaviours, local measurements and machine learning based operations implemented at single energy systems (assets) in the grid. In an example from the project IKTfree it was evaluated, how effective fallback behaviours in single assets can ensure stable grid operation in an event of ICT network failures. The analysed fallback behaviours range from keeping the latest power value to changing it to a pre-defined set point up to change the power level in accordance to the measured value at the connection point. The results show that these approaches can help to keep the voltage at house connection points and loadings of lines and transformer stations within operating limits. In conclusion, these results demonstrate the potential for fallback behaviours to enhance resilience in digitalized distribution power grids, even in situations where ICT control is lost.

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   6. Chapter 15. Assessing the Resilience of the Current and Future Transportation System

      • Open Access

      Tudor Mocanu, Sophie Nägele, Moritz Bergfeld

      Abstract

      The resilience of the transport system has been extensively researched in the past decades. Research has so far focused mainly on natural hazards as the main threat to the system. Current and future developments in the transport sector and beyond like automatization, digitalization, transition towards renewable energies and climate change will likely increase the complexity of the transport system and pose new challenges to ensuring the resilience of the system. Amidst these developments, the role of individual behaviour during disruptions will be crucial and needs to be better understood. In spite of the wealth of previous research on resilience, so far, no standard methodology for the assessment of the resilience at system-level could be established. In order to provide a roadmap towards such a methodology we discuss the intended functionality, structure and components of the transport system and propose several approaches on how to operationalize resilience metrics in a model-based framework.

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   7. Chapter 16. Systems Consideration for Resilience Monitoring

      • Open Access

      Bert Droste-Franke

      Abstract

      The task which is tackled with designing future energy systems is to build up a combination of technical facilities which can be used in future to provide the demand of usable energy predominantly from renewable energy sources. One major key to do this successfully is systems knowledge of intercorrelations between technical elements, environment, and society. Against this background in this chapter insights from systems analyses needed for policy support, basic theoretical systems views, derivation of fundamental systems characteristics for resilience, empirical findings from the Ahr-flood disaster, thoughts for a meaningful combination of systems knowledge, and practical requirements for the provision of applicable knowledge for action and for evaluating alternative options are gathered and put together. The results are an in-depth analysis of the field of energy systems analyses for resilience modelling and basic recommendations for building up a stress test tool as a nucleus for further endeavours in this direction.

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6. Synthesis

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 17. Shaping and Monitoring Resilient Energy Systems—A Synthesis

      • Open Access

      Davy van Doren, Bert Droste-Franke, Michael Brand, Karen Derendorf, Gabriele Fohr, Hans Christian Gils, Matthias Kaiser, Jörg Knieling, Sebastian Lehnhoff, Karsten von Maydell, Tudor Mocanu, Sigrid Prehofer, Ortwin Renn, Arnim von Gleich, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Martin Wickel, Henning Wigger, Thomas H. W. Ziesemer

      Abstract

      In the light of energy transition, existing systems have shown to be often characterised by fundamental challenges that could potentially threaten its functioning, particularly when exposed to extreme forms of stress. To overcome this, we argue that an inter- and transdisciplinary approach—aimed to integrate relevant stakeholder perspectives and acknowledge different spatial–temporal scales—can provide indications in relation to the development of resilience. In this context, the included contributions have highlighted that resilience remains a topic surrounded by promises and confusion, but also illustrate that improved conceptualisation and operationalisation of associated processes and structures can be realised. Through clustering these contributions—according to understanding, envisioning, analysing, and managing resilience of energy systems—a structured overview is provided. Based on obtained insights, various recommendations are given how resilience in energy systems can be realised. Also, some indications are given how policy advice could be improved by means of resilience monitoring.

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