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## Über dieses Buch

The Conference on Traffic and Granular Flow brings together international researchers from different fields ranging from physics to computer science and engineering to discuss the latest developments in traffic-related systems. Originally conceived to facilitate new ideas by considering the similarities of traffic and granular flow, TGF'15, organised by Delft University of Technology, now covers a broad range of topics related to driven particle and transport systems. Besides the classical topics of granular flow and highway traffic, its scope includes data transport (Internet traffic), pedestrian and evacuation dynamics, intercellular transport, swarm behaviour and the collective dynamics of other biological systems. Recent advances in modelling, computer simulation and phenomenology are presented, and prospects for applications, for example to traffic control, are discussed. The conference explores the interrelations between the above-mentioned fields and offers the opportunity to stimulate interdisciplinary research, exchange ideas, and meet many experts in these areas of research.

## Inhaltsverzeichnis

### Methodology for Generating Individualised Trajectories from Experiments

TrafficMehner, WolfgangresearchBoltes, Maik has reachedSeyfried, Armin a point where trajectories are available for microscopic analysis. The next step will be trajectories which are connected to human factors, i.e. information about the agent. The first step in pedestrian dynamics has been done using video recordings to generate precise trajectories. We go one step further and present two experiments for which ID markers are used to produce individualised trajectories: a large-scale experiment on pedestrian dynamics and an experiment on single-file bicycle traffic. The camera set-up has to be carefully chosen when using ID markers. It has to facilitate reading out the markers, while at the same time being able to capture the whole experiment. We propose two set-ups to address this problem and report on experiments conducted with these set-ups.

Wolfgang Mehner, Maik Boltes, Armin Seyfried

### Advances in Measuring Pedestrians at Dutch Train Stations Using Bluetooth, WiFi and Infrared Technology

As of 2014, threeVan den Heuvel, JeroenDutchTon, DaniquetrainHermansen, Kim stations have been equipped with automated pedestrian traffic sensors, as part of the SMART Station initiative of NS Stations. These stations are Utrecht Central station, Amsterdam Airport Schiphol train station and Leiden Central station. SMART Station consists of hybrid Bluetooth/WiFi sensors for tracking and infrared sensors for counting. Combining data from both sensor types results in useful insights into the pedestrian dynamics. In this paper, four SMART Station cases are presented. Firstly, an estimation of escalator capacity will be presented. Secondly, we will show the temporal and spatial flow characteristics of a very large bike parking facility. Thirdly, the use of train stations by non-train passengers will be explored. Fourthly and finally, the occupancy of a station hall will be explored.

Jeroen van den Heuvel, Danique Ton, Kim Hermansen

### Avoiding Walls: What Distance Do Pedestrians Keep from Walls and Obstacles?

ToBosina, Ernst avoid colliding with walls and obstacles, pedestriansMeeder, Mark keep a certain distanceBuchel, Beda@Büchel, Beda to them. This so-called separationWeidmann, Ulrich distance or wall clearance distance was documented in early literature on pedestrian transport. For modelling purposes, it can be subtracted from a walkway’s width to obtain an effective width. Literature on this topic is scarce and the values that can be found are often contradictory, largely due to a lack of data. This work aims at contributing to the knowledge about the pedestrian wall distance by applying several high-resolution measurement techniques. Measurements were carried out using ultrasonic transducers and laser scanners at locations where high numbers of pedestrians move in a unidirectional flow. The results confirm that pedestrians keep a minimum distance to walls and that the effect of obstacles is noticeable several metres downstream of the cross section in which they occur. Furthermore, it was found that the kept distance depends on the pedestrian density. Lastly, this paper suggests a method for determining the effective width of walkways that can be used in pedestrian facility design.

Ernst Bosina, Mark Meeder, Beda Büchel, Ulrich Weidmann

### Estimation of Density Levels in the Holy Mosque from a Network of Cameras

In this work we developed a systemAli, Yasir S. for estimating the density levelsZafar, Basim in the holy mosque of Makkah using video camerasSimsim, Mohammed installed in the mosque. This set-up relies on dividing the image into smaller segments and counting the number of people in each segment to infer the density. This algorithm used texture and SIFT interest point features to get an accurate count of the number of people at each segment using support vector regression. Having segments at different sizes helped to account for objects with different size in the image. In addition, the use of overlapping segment smooth the estimated density maps as each pixel receive a contribution from different patches. Our methodology has been tested extensively with different cameras during the Fasting season of 2015 with images from very crowded areas in the mosque.

Yasir S. Ali, Basim Zafar, Mohammed Simsim

### Is Slowing Down Enough to Model Movement on Stairs?

There are manyKöster, Gerta well validated modelsLehmberg, Daniel of pedestrian movement on a flatDietrich, Felix surface. This is not the case for movement on stairs. Experiments show that pedestrians slow down when climbing or descending stairs. Hence, it is tempting to model movement on stairs by simply slowing down by a factor. But this would imply that, other than being slower, motion on stairs mirrors motion in the plane. Is that assumption justified? We conduct field observations that reveal similarities but also significant differences. Thus, we argue that modelling movement on stairs by slowing down free-flow velocities may be an acceptable first shot. True microscopic behaviour, however, like treading from step to step and keeping to a straight line instead of trying to overtake can only be captured by a dedicated model. We present an extension to the Optimal Steps Model that achieves this.

Gerta Köster, Daniel Lehmberg, Felix Dietrich

### Data-Driven Characterisation of Multidirectional Pedestrian Traffic

We propose theNikolić, Marija framework for pedestrianBierlaire, Michel traffic characterisation that is derived byHänseler, Flurin extending Edie’s definitions through a data-driven discretisation. The discretisation framework is based on three-dimensional Voronoi diagrams in order for the characterisation to be as independent as possible from an arbitrarily chosen aggregation. It can be designed through the utilisation of pedestrian trajectories described either analytically or as a sample of points.

Marija Nikolić, Michel Bierlaire, Flurin Hänseler

### Asymmetric Pedestrian Dynamics on a Staircase Landing from Continuous Measurements

We investigateCorbetta, Alessandro via extensive experimentalLee, Chung-Min data the dynamics of pedestriansMuntean, Adrian walking in a corridor-shaped landingToschi, Federico in a building at Eindhoven University of Technology. With year-long automatic measurements employing a Microsoft Kinect™ 3D-range sensor and ad hoc tracking techniques, we acquired few hundreds of thousands pedestrian trajectories in real-life conditions. Here, we discuss the asymmetric features of the dynamics in the two walking directions with respect to the flights of stairs (i.e. ascending or descending). We provide a detailed analysis of position and speed fields for the cases of pedestrians walking alone undisturbed and for couple of pedestrians in counter-flow. Then, we show average walking velocities exploring all the observed combinations in terms of numbers of pedestrians and walking directions.

Alessandro Corbetta, Chung-Min Lee, Adrian Muntean, Federico Toschi

### Experimental Study of High-Density Pedestrian Flow Field Characteristics at a Crossing

This paper presentsLian, Liping an experimental studySong, Weiguo on four-directional intersectingRichard, Yuen Kwok Kit pedestrian flows to give insightWu, Chunlin into collective movement characteristics of pedestrians at a crossing. The experiments were performed in a university and up to 364 students took part in. Pedestrian trajectories are extracted by means of automatic image processing. From trajectories, we get positions of each person in each frame and find pedestrian gap at high densities. Velocity field and its corresponding streamlines and contour lines are constructed and analysed. An efficient rotary traffic pattern occurs when people walk on their right hand side along the corridors. Moreover, turbulence intensities in different scenarios are compared and the results imply that putting an obstacle in the centre of cross area and pedestrians walking on the right hand side along the corridors will improve traffic stability in the cross area. These findings can be used to calibrate pedestrian simulation models and help us understand the mechanism of collective movement better.

Liping Lian, Weiguo Song, Yuen Kwok Kit Richard, Chunlin Wu

### Empirical Study of the Influence of Social Groups in Evacuation Scenarios

The effectsVon Krüchten, Cornelia of social groups on pedestrian dynamicsMüller, Frank, especially in evacuation scenariosSvachiy, Anton, have attractedWohak, Oliver some interest recently. However, due to the lack of reliableSchadschneider, Andreas empirical data, most of the studies focussed on modelling aspects. It was shown that social groups can have a considerable effect, e.g. on evacuation times. In order to test the model predictions we have performed laboratory experiments of evacuations with different types and sizes of the social groups. The experiments have been performed with pupils of different ages. Parameters that have been considered are (1) group size, (2) strength of intra-group interactions, and (3) composition of the groups (young adults, children, and mixtures). For all the experiments high-quality trajectories for all participants have been obtained using the PeTrack software. This allows for a detailed analysis of the group effects. One surprising observation is a decrease of the evacuation time with increasing group size.

Cornelia von Krüchten, Frank Müller, Anton Svachiy, Oliver Wohak, Andreas Schadschneider

### Detection of Steady State in Pedestrian Experiments

Initial conditionsLiao, Weichen could have strong influencesTordeux, Antoine on the dynamics of pedestrianSeyfried, Armin experiments. Thus, a carefulChraibi, Mohcine differentiation between transientZheng, Xiaoping state and steady state is important and necessary for a thoroughZhao, Ying study. In this contribution a modified CUSUM algorithm is proposed to automatically detect steady state from time series of pedestrian experiments. Major modifications on the statistics include introducing a step function to enhance the sensitivity, adding a boundary to limit the increase, and simplifying the calculation to improve the computational efficiency. Furthermore, the threshold of the detection parameter is calibrated using an autoregressive process. By testing the robustness, the modified CUSUM algorithm is able to reproduce identical steady state with different references. Its application well contributes to accurate analysis and reliable comparison of experimental results.

Weichen Liao, Antoine Tordeux, Armin Seyfried, Mohcine Chraibi, Xiaoping Zheng, Ying Zhao

### Statistical Models for Pedestrian Behaviour in Front of Bottlenecks

UnderstandingBode, Nikolai W.F. the movement of humanCodling, Edward A. crowds is important for our general understanding of collective behaviour and for applications in building design and event planning. Here, we focus on the flow of a crowd through a narrow bottleneck. We develop statistical models that describe how pedestrian behaviour immediately in front of a bottleneck affects the time lapse between consecutive pedestrians passing through the bottleneck. With this approach, we isolate the most important aspects of pedestrian behaviour from a number of candidate models. We fit our models to experimental data and find that pedestrian interactions immediately in front of the bottleneck appear to be less important for the observed time lapses than interactions further away from the bottleneck. Furthermore, we demonstrate how our approach can be used to rigorously compare microscopic pedestrian behaviours across different contexts by fitting the same statistical models to three separate datasets. We suggest that our approach is a promising tool to establish similarities and differences between simulated and real pedestrian behaviour.

Nikolai W. F. Bode, Edward A. Codling

### Congestion Dynamics in Pedestrian Single-File Motion

This articleZiemer, Verena considers executionSeyfried, Armin and analysisSchadschneider, Andreas of laboratory experiments of pedestrians moving in a quasi-one-dimensional system with periodic boundary conditions. To analyse characteristics of jams in the system we aim to use the whole experimental set-up as the measurement area. Thus, the trajectories are transformed to a new coordinate system. We show that the trajectory data from the straight and curved parts are comparable and assume that the distributions of the residuals come from the same continuous distribution. Regarding the trajectories of the entire set-up, the creation of stop-and-go waves in pedestrian traffic can be investigated and described.

Verena Ziemer, Armin Seyfried, Andreas Schadschneider

### Determining the Density Experienced by Pedestrians in Unstable Flow Situations

In recentDuives, Dorine C. years severalDaamen, WinniemethodsHoogendoorn, Serge P. have been proposed to compute the density of a crowd. Several studies have shown that the fundamental diagrams produced by means of these methods differ greatly depending on the chosen density computation method, especially in unstable flow situations where pedestrians are unequally distributed over the infrastructure. The results of these studies suggest that two density computation methods are to be preferred, namely the Voronoi and the XT-method. In light of these results, the question rises which of these two computation methods provides better results in more intricate flow situations that are unstable by nature. This study shows that when computing the density of pedestrian movements in confined spaces, the differences in the results generated by the two methods are limited. This study, furthermore, ascertains that the XT-method provides more realistic results for non-confined spaces.

Dorine C. Duives, Winnie Daamen, Serge P. Hoogendoorn

### Individual Microscopic Results of Bottleneck Experiments

This contributionBukáček, Marek provides a microscopicHrabák, Pavel experimental study of pedestrianKrbálek, Milan motion in front of the bottleneck, and explains the high variance of individual travel time by the statistical analysis of trajectories. The analysis shows that this heterogeneity increases with increasing occupancy. Some participants were able to reach lower travel times due to more efficient path selection and more aggressive behaviour within the crowd. Based on this observations, a linear model predicting travel time with respect to the aggressiveness of pedestrian is proposed.

Marek Bukáček, Pavel Hrabák, Milan Krbálek

### Modelling Stride Length and Stepping Frequency

A pedestrianVon Sivers, IsabellamotionKöster, Gerta model must be calibratedKleinmeier, Benedikt to measured data and validated against observations to achieve predictive power for the simulations. The relationship between the speed of pedestrians and the density of a crowd or the flow through bottlenecks are widely accepted as important characteristics of pedestrian movement. They are often used for calibration and validation. Other crucial characteristics of pedestrian movement have been discussed in recent studies. Two of these are the correlations between stride length and speed as well as between stepping frequency and speed. We show that one can reproduce these dependencies as measured in the experiments with the Optimal Steps Model (OSM), which captures stepping behaviour of pedestrians.

Isabella von Sivers, Gerta Köster, Benedikt Kleinmeier

### Experimental Study on the Influence of Step Phase in Pedestrian Movement

There is a fundamentalLiu, ChirelationshipSong, Weiguo between the headwayLo, Siuming and velocity in pedestrian dynamics; this is of great importance in building a pedestrian movement model. However, it is found that even if experiment conditions are strictly controlled, the velocity of pedestrians with the same headway varies considerably. This implies that states of pedestrians should be considered thoroughly, and its influence to macroscopic parameters needs to be quantified. A single-file pedestrian movement experiment is carried out to analyse the microscopic moving characteristics of pedestrians. The trajectories of participants in a straight passageway are extracted through an image processing method based on a mean-shift algorithm. The transverse swing of trajectories is correlated with the phase of pedestrians’ steps period. The stride length and frequency of pedestrians are collected from the trajectories. Besides, the synchronisation of the lock-step group varies during the movement. The findings can give the stop-and-go phenomenon a new microscopic explanation. This study can be used to evaluate pedestrian microscopic movement and the development of evacuation models.

Chi Liu, Weiguo Song, Siuming Lo

### The Influence of Moore and von-Neumann Neighbourhood on the Dynamics of Pedestrian Movement

DevelopingRogsch, Christian models for pedestrian and evacuation dynamics using a cellular automata is based on the fundamental question of the neighbourhood pedestrians should use to move from one point to another point in a selected geometry. If a rectangular lattice is used for pedestrian movement and geometry representation, there are two possible types of neighbourhoods which can be chosen: the Moore-Neighbourhood or the von-Neumann-Neighbourhood. Both neighbourhoods are used in different kind of models. To show the effect the chosen neighbourhood has on the dynamics of pedestrian movement, different scenarios are investigated using both neighbourhoods by using the same evacuation model.

Christian Rogsch

### Simulation of People Flow by a New Fuzzy Discrete Automata Model and an Ergonomic Approach

This workBraga, Henrique C. presents the computerMoita, Gray F. program FUGA v. 1.0, developedAlmeida, Paulo E.M. to simulate the movement of people in constructed environments in normal situations and also during an evacuation in emergency situations. FUGA is based on a discrete automata model using pre-defined rules. This program uses an ergonomic approach associated with human movement and fuzzy logic as a computer intelligence tool to emulate the human decision-making process. The model incorporates mechanical and mental aspects, as well as their quantitative and qualitative nature. This work shows how selected ergonomic quantities are incorporated into a human decision-making process emulated by a fuzzy logic system. FUGA simulates environments with any internal or external geometry; with one or more floors; with or without staircases or ramps and with uni or multi directional flows. Some simulations are performed showing how the software FUGA can be used in the design of safer environments, in a way that could hardly be achieved by simply applying the existing regulations.

Henrique C. Braga, Gray F. Moita, Paulo E. M. Almeida

### The Inflection Point of the Speed–Density Relation and the Social Force Model

It has beenKretz, Tobias argued thatLohmiller, Jochen the speed–densitySchlaich, Johannes digram of pedestrian movement has an inflection point. This inflection point was found empirically in investigations of closed-loop single-file pedestrian movement. The reduced complexity of single-file movement does not only allow a higher precision for the evaluation of empirical data, but it occasionally also allows analytical considerations for microsimulation models. In this way it will be shown that certain (common) variants of the Social Force Model (SFM) do not produce an inflection point in the speed–density diagram if infinitely many pedestrians contribute to the force computed for one pedestrian. We propose a modified Social Force Model that produces the inflection point.

Tobias Kretz, Jochen Lohmiller, Johannes Schlaich

### Sensitivity Analysis of the Local Route Choice Parameters of the Continuum Model Regarding Pedestrian Movement Phenomena

Numerous pedestrianDuives, Dorine C.simulationDaamen, Winnie models have beenHoogendoorn, Serge P. proposed in the last decade, many of which simulate the movement behaviour of pedestrians microscopically. However, the numerous degrees of freedom of microscopic models complicate the calibration process severely. Moreover, the computation speed of many microscopic simulation models leaves much to be desired. Especially in cases where computation speed is essential and no microscopic data is available to calibrate the model, macroscopic models outperform microscopic models. This study provides a detailed assessment of the impact of the combination of delay and density within the formulation of the local route choice behaviour on the predicted movement dynamics of the crowd in a continuum model (Physica A 416:684–694, 2014 [9]; Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 59:183–197, 2015 [10]). This study aims to understand how the parameters of the respective versions of the continuum model influence the development crowd movement phenomena. The impact of the parameter sets of the continuum model is assessed for a uni-directional bottleneck, uni-directional corner rounding, bidirectional straight walking and intersecting movements.

Dorine C. Duives, Winnie Daamen, Serge P. Hoogendoorn

### How to Get a Model in Pedestrian Dynamics to Produce Stop and Go Waves

StopDietrich, FelixandDisselnkötter, Stefan go wavesKöster, Gerta in granular flow can often be described mathematically by a dynamical system with a Hopf bifurcation. We show that a certain class of microscopic, ordinary differential equation-based models in crowd dynamics fulfil certain conditions of Hopf bifurcations. The class is based on the Gradient Navigation Model. An interesting phenomenon arises: the number of pedestrians in the system must be greater than nine for a bifurcation—and hence for stop and go waves to be possible at all, independent of the density. Below this number, no parameter setting will cause the system to exhibit stable stop and go behaviour. The result is also interesting for car traffic, where similar models exist. Numerical experiments of several parameter settings are used to illustrate the mathematical results.

Felix Dietrich, Stefan Disselnkötter, Gerta Köster

### A Force-Based Model to Reproduce Stop-and-Go Waves in Pedestrian Dynamics

Stop-and-go wavesChraibi, Mohcine in single-fileTordeux, AntoinemovementSchadschneider, Andreas are a phenomenon that is observed empirically in pedestrian dynamics. It manifests itself by the co-existence of two phases: moving and stopping pedestrians. We show analytically based on a simplified one-dimensional scenario that under some conditions the system can have unstable homogeneous solutions. Hence, oscillations in the trajectories and instabilities emerge during simulations. To our knowledge there exists no force-based model which is collision- and oscillation-free and meanwhile can reproduce phase separation. We develop a new force-based model for pedestrian dynamics able to reproduce qualitatively the phenomenon of phase separation. We investigate analytically the stability condition of the model and define regimes of parameter values where phase separation can be observed. We show by means of simulations that the predefined conditions lead in fact to the expected behaviour and validate our model with respect to empirical findings.

Mohcine Chraibi, Antoine Tordeux, Andreas Schadschneider

### Impact of Impulse Stops on Pedestrian Flow

WeKwak, JaeyoungnumericallyJo, Hang-HyunstudyLuttinen, TapiotheKosonen, Iisakki impact of impulse stops on pedestrian flow for a straight corridor with multiple attractions. The impulse stop is simulated by the switching behaviour model, a function of the social influence strength and the number of attendees near the attraction. When the pedestrian influx is low, one can observe a stable flow where attendees make a complete stop at an attraction and then leave the attraction after a certain amount of time. When the pedestrian influx is high, an unstable flow is observed due to strong social influence. In the unstable flow, attendees near the attraction are crowded out from the clusters by others due to the interpersonal repulsion. The expelled pedestrians impede the pedestrian traffic between the left and right boundaries of the corridor. These collective patterns of pedestrian flow are summarised in a schematic phase diagram.

Jaeyoung Kwak, Hang-Hyun Jo, Tapio Luttinen, Iisakki Kosonen

### Investigation on Cooperative Avoiding Behaviour in Bi-directional Flow

WeYanagisawa, Daichi have introduced an evolutionary game dynamics to a one-dimensional cellular automaton to investigate evolution and maintenance of cooperative avoiding behaviour in bidirectional flow of self-driven particles. In our model, there are two kinds of particles, which are right-going particles and left-going particles. Since the model is one dimension, they often face opponent particles. In order to avoid conflicts, the particles try to avoid their opponents by swerving to the right or left stochastically. The particles have a memory and reinforce their preference after their successful avoidance. Result of our simulation indicates that cooperative avoiding behaviour is achieved, i.e., swerving directions of the particles are unified, when the density of particles is close to 1/2 and the memory-loss rate is small. Application of our research will be useful to study evolution and maintenance of cooperative avoiding behaviour in pedestrian dynamics.

Daichi Yanagisawa

### A Queuing Model Based on Social Attitudes

ModernKöster, GertapedestrianZönnchen, Benedikt simulation models have to deal with queuing to obtain realistic results. Queues control the number of pedestrians entering or leaving an area and, through this, the number of pedestrians inside that area. Furthermore, they impede passing pedestrians. But how do humans decide on a queuing strategy? And how does this effect the form of the emerging queue? Based on dynamic floor fields for navigation and a simple heuristic decision mechanism we present a computer model that is able to capture different queuing patterns that we observe in every day life. For this, we assume that there are two basic attitudes, aggressive competition and cooperative getting in line. Pedestrians can switch between these strategies.

Gerta Köster, Benedikt Zönnchen

### How Do People Queue? A Study of Different Queuing Models

WheneverKneidl, Angelika there are crowded spaces, queuing occurs. Many different situations force people to queue: Waiting for a service counter, lining up for a train or bus, queuing in front of bottlenecks or simply waiting at a supermarket checkout. Such queuing evolves in many different ways, depending on the situation, the reason for queuing, the culture, the geometry and many more. Simulation models have to cope with such different situations and behaviours. This paper gives an overview on different queuing situations and corresponding models that exist for pedestrian modelling. Additionally, it introduces a new queuing model for organised queuing without demarcation tapes. First visual validations are shown.

Angelika Kneidl

### The Relationship Between the Waiting Crowd and the Average Service Time

InHandel, Oliver this paperBorrmann, André the relationship between the waiting crowd and the service time—the average duration to serve one single customer—is evaulated in the context of vendor stands (e.g. food stands, concession stands or kiosks). Drawing from traditional analytic queuing theory, a distribution function for the service time that remains steady is generally used. This steady state assumption is questioned in this paper by using computer simulation, empirical observation and qualitative reasoning. On the one hand, the impact of the amount of people waiting on the average duration of service time is examined. On the other hand, the effects of crowding on the choice of a customer are evaluated as well. Within this context different causal feedback relationships are identified that are expected to be of fundamental importance. The paper concludes that for the endogenisation of the service time, the incorporation of these feedback relationships is key to obtain more accurate results.

Oliver Handel, André Borrmann

### How Do We Wait? Fundamentals, Characteristics, and Modelling Implications

PedestrianSeitz, Michael J.simulationSeer, StefanmodelsKlettner, SilviapredominantlyHandel, OliverfocusKöster, Gerta on the flow or motion of agents. However, in many real-world scenarios a large amount of pedestrians’ time is spent waiting. Furthermore, the initial spatial distribution of visitors of a mass event may contribute significantly to the overall evacuation time. In this paper, we discuss social science concepts related to waiting, such as personal space requirements, and identify relevant aspects for the modelling of pedestrian behaviour. With this background, we develop measures and hypotheses for pedestrian waiting behaviour and apply them to a field observation of a train station platform in Vienna. We discuss implications for modelling approaches to waiting, which could be an important future extension to pedestrian simulations.

Michael J. Seitz, Stefan Seer, Silvia Klettner, Oliver Handel, Gerta Köster

### Collision-Free Speed Model for Pedestrian Dynamics

WeTordeux, AntoineproposeChraibi, MohcineinSeyfried, Armin this paper a minimal speed-based pedestrian model for which particle dynamics are intrinsically collision-free. The speed model is an optimal velocity function depending on the agent length (i.e. particle diameter), maximum speed and time gap parameters. The direction model is a weighted sum of exponential repulsion from the neighbours, calibrated by the repulsion rate and distance. The model’s main features like the reproduction of empirical phenomena are analysed by simulation. We point out that phenomena of self-organisation observable in force-based models and field studies can be reproduced by the collision-free model with low computational effort.

Antoine Tordeux, Mohcine Chraibi, Armin Seyfried

### Finite Element Simulation of a Macroscopic Model for Pedestrian Flow

We analyse the resultsAxthelm, Rebekka of a finite element simulation of a macroscopic model, which describes the movement of a crowd, that is considered as a continuum. A new formulation based on the macroscopic model from Hughes [2] is given. We present a stable numerical algorithm by approximating with a viscosity solution. The fundamental setting is given by an arbitrary domain that can contain several obstacles, several entries and must have at least one exit. All pedestrians have the goal to leave the room as quickly as possible. Nobody prefers a particular exit.

Rebekka Axthelm

### A Unified Pedestrian Routing Model Combining Multiple Graph-Based Navigation Methods

TheKielar, Peter M.navigationBiedermann, Daniel H. behaviour of pedestriansKneidl, Angelika in streetBorrmann, André networks can be forecast by computer simulations based on routing models. These models characterise pedestrians’ route choices regarding a variety of factors. However, the spatial cognition aspects are often omitted in routing models; thus, the diversity of predictable routes is limited. Here, we present a unified routing model that describes route choices of pedestrians by integrating the spatial cognitive aspects of allocentric-based and egocentric-based navigation. We achieved this by combining graph-based routing methods, each formalising a single spatial cognitive aspect. In addition, we present a generic calibration method for our model. For validation, we show that our model is able to correctly predict the routing behaviour of pedestrians in a case study.

Peter M. Kielar, Daniel H. Biedermann, Angelika Kneidl, André Borrmann

### Wayfinding and Cognitive Maps for Pedestrian Models

Usually, routingAndresen, Erik models in pedestrianHaensel, David dynamics assume that agentsChraibi, Mohcine have fulfilledSeyfried, Armin and global knowledge about the building’s structure. However, they neglect the fact that pedestrians possess no or only parts of information about their position relative to final exits and possible routes leading to them. To get a more realistic description we introduce the systematics of gathering and using spatial knowledge. A new wayfinding model for pedestrian dynamics is proposed. The model defines for every pedestrian an individual knowledge representation implying inaccuracies and uncertainties. In addition, knowledge-driven search strategies are introduced. The presented concept is tested on a fictive example scenario.

Erik Andresen, David Haensel, Mohcine Chraibi, Armin Seyfried

### Adaptive Tactical Decisions in Pedestrian Simulation: A Hybrid Agent Approach

This paperCrociani, LucapresentsVizzari, Giuseppe the tacticalBandini, Stefania level component of a hybrid agent architecture in which these decisions are enacted at the operational level by means of a floor-field based model, in a discrete simulation approach. This allows the agent to take decisions based on a static a-priori knowledge of the environment and dynamic perceivable information on the current level of congestion of visible path alternatives.

Luca Crociani, Giuseppe Vizzari, Stefania Bandini

### Evacuation Dynamics of Asymmetrically Coupled Pedestrian Pairs

We proposeMüller, Frank and analyse extendedSchadschneider, Andreas floor field cellular automaton models for evacuation dynamics of inhomogeneous pedestrian pairs which are coupled by asymmetric group interactions. Such pairs consist of a leader, who mainly determines the couple’s motion and a follower, who has a defined tendency to follow the leader. Examples for such pairs are mother and child or two siblings of different age. We examine the system properties and compare them to the case of a homogeneous crowd. We find a strong impact on evacuation times for the regime of strong pair coupling due to the occurrence of a clogging phenomenon. In addition, we obtain a non-trivial dependence of evacuation times on the followers’ coupling to the static floor field, which carries the information of the shortest way to the exit location. In particular we find that systems with fully passive followers, who are solely coupled to their leaders, show lower evacuation times than homogeneous systems where all pedestrians have an equal tendency to move towards the exit. We compare the results of computer simulations with recently performed experiments.

### Granulometric Distribution and Crowds of Groups: Focusing on Dyads

PedestrianGorrini, Andrea flows are characterised byVizzari, Giuseppe the preponderant presenceBandini, Stefania of groups, with particular reference to dyads. The paper presents a research focused on group and age-driven pedestrian behaviour in an urban crowded scenario. Data analysis was performed by using an open source tracker tool. Results showed that in situation of irregular flows (LOS B) dyads walked 30 % slower than singles, and that elderly walked 40 % slower than adults. The achieved results have been used towards the validation of the simulation platform ELIAS 38, with reference to the representation of the granulometric distribution of groups and heterogeneous speed profiles.

Andrea Gorrini, Giuseppe Vizzari, Stefania Bandini

### Method for Simulating the Evacuation Behaviours of People in Dynamically Changing Situations

EvacuationTakahahi, Tomoichi drills are executedNiwa, Toshinori to practice smooth rescueIsono, Rintaro operations during emergencies. Evacuation simulation systems have been proposed to simulate evacuation behaviours of people in such situations, and to improve prevention plans. In this paper, we point out new features in simulating evacuation behaviours in dynamically changing situations and propose a simulation method in a case of closing fire shutters. Our simulation results show more realistic behaviours of evacuations than the traditional simulations and indicate potential to improve prevention plans for emergency situations and thus reduce fatalities, injuries, and damage from disasters.

Tomoichi Takahahi, Toshinori Niwa, Rintaro Isono

### Efficacy of Pedestrian Evacuation Time Estimate Using Agent Based Queuing Network Model

ThereKunwar, Bharat is an increasingSimini, Filippo risk of exposure to disastersJohansson, Anders due to rising instances of extreme events (Munich et al. Topics Geo: Natural Catastrophes 2013: Analyses, Assessments, Positions. Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Munich, 2014, [7]) and growing urban settlements (United Nationsin World economic and social survey 2013: sustainable development challenges, 2013, [9]). As such, it is important that we explore ways measure preparedness to such disasters. In a previous work (Kunwar et al. in Evacuation time estimate for a total pedestrian evacuation using queuing network model and volunteered geographic information, 2015, [5]), we used agent based modelling (ABM) to investigate 50 cities in the UK and draw a link between their attributes such as spatial size, population, exit width and their evacuation time estimates (ETE) for a full city evacuation, one of the most stressing mobility use cases for a city. In this work, we examine the efficacy of those results by looking at how sensitive they are to fundamental diagram parameters. We found the overall ETE to be most sensitive to density threshold for minimum velocity with variations as large as an order of magnitude. We observed that ETE is also sensitive to maximum density limit but the results keep within the same order of magnitude. We also saw an increasing gap in ETE for lowest and highest values of density threshold for minimum velocity with every doubling of population. We reached a conclusion that it is necessary to carefully establish the input parampAGNeters if a robust result is desired for a network-based ‘mesoscopic’ modelling.

Bharat Kunwar, Filippo Simini, Anders Johansson

### Modelling Pedestrian Evacuation Movement on a Swaying Ship

With theChen, Juan advance in livingMa, Jian standard, cruise travelLo, Siuming has been rapidly expanding around the world in recent years. The transportation of passengers over the water has also made a rapid development. It is expected that ships will be more and more widely used. Unfortunately, recent ship disasters caused serious losses. It raised concerns on the effectiveness of passenger evacuation on ships. The present study thus focuses on pedestrian evacuation features on ships. On ships, passenger movements are affected by the periodical water motion and thus are quite different from the characteristic when walking on a static horizontal floor. Taking into consideration this special feature, an agent-based pedestrian model is formulated and the effect of ship swaying on pedestrian evacuation efficiency is investigated. Results indicated that the proposed model can be used to quantify the special evacuation process on ships.

Juan Chen, Jian Ma, Siuming Lo

### Granularity of Pre-movement Time Distribution in Crowd Evacuation Simulations

This paperPorzycki, Jakub addresses issues of spatialWąs, Jarosław distribution of pre-movement time. Three different, real lifeLubaś, Robert cases of egressBazior, Grzegorz are analysed. In all the analysed cases a coarse spatial distribution of pre-movement time is observed. On the basis of the examples the authors investigate whether this phenomenon has a significant influence on the evacuation process. It has been found that in more complex scenarios, the spatial distribution of pre-movement time affects the evacuation process, while in simple scenarios (like large room evacuation) no significant influence is observed. Finally, some factors that increase the magnitude of the observed phenomenon were identified, namely the complicated geometry of the facility, evacuees confusion, existence of groups and appearance of a leader. As a consequence of the findings, it is recommended to include coarse spatial distribution of pre-movement times in simulations of complex scenarios.

Jakub Porzycki, Jarosław Wąs, Robert Lubaś, Grzegorz Bazior

### Estimation of Discretised Motion of Pedestrians by the Decision-Making Model

The contributionHrabák, Pavel gives a micro-structural insight intoTicháček, Ondřej the pedestrian decisionSečkárová, Vladimíra process during an egress situation. A method how to extract the decisions of pedestrians from the trajectories recorded during the experiments is introduced. The underlying Markov decision process is estimated using the finite mixture approximation. Furthermore, the results of this estimation can be used as an input to the optimisation of a Markov decision process for one ‘clever’ agent. This agent optimises his strategy of motion with respect to different reward functions, minimising the time spent in the room or minimising the amount of inhaled CO.

Pavel Hrabák, Ondřej Ticháček, Vladimíra Sečkárová

### Oppilatio: The Forecast of Crowd Congestions on Street Networks During Public Events

At manyBiedermann, Daniel H. events, the arrivalKielar, Peter M. of visitors dependsBorrmann, André mainly on public transport services. On such occasions, people walk from the station or bus stop to the event site. This can lead to crowd congestions since the visitors arrive in large numbers according to the schedules of the public transport services. Unfortunately, organisers of such events have very limited information about the arrival behaviour of their visitors. Normally, they only know the number of incoming visitors on the event site and the timetable of the public transport service. It is difficult to perform crowd management successfully with so little data. Oppilatio uses this limited data to determine the most likely routing paths of incoming visitors. This allows an early recognition of potential crowd congestions on the access routes and therefore the initiation of countermeasures.

Daniel H. Biedermann, Peter M. Kielar, André Borrmann

### Simulation-Based Forecasts of Crowd Flows at Major Events Using Real-Time Measurements

The complexityMatyus, Thomas and dynamic nature of largeSeer, Stefan events ariseSchrom-Feiertag, Helmut the need for decision makers to assess the current situation and to derive multi-temporal forecasts in order to identify critical situations in a timely manner and to initiate appropriate countermeasures. In this work, we present a fast mesoscopic simulation model which incorporates measurements from counting and Bluetooth sensors, thus providing real-time forecasts of crowd flows at major events. With this approach already a sparse placement of sensors at strategic points on an event area is sufficient to achieve the necessary spatial and temporal resolution for a complete characterization of the current crowd flows. For model verification and validation, we investigated case studies from two music festivals in Austria in 2012 and 2013 where extensive measurements on human motion data were obtained to evaluate the deviations of the simulation results from the measured walking times.

Thomas Matyus, Stefan Seer, Helmut Schrom-Feiertag

### Level of Safety Concept for Major Events

Most of the internationalHoll, StefanguidelinesBoltes, Maik for the dimensioningSeyfried, Armin of pedestrian traffic facilities are built on the ‘Level of Service’ concept. It is well suited for a lot of traffic conditions like unidirectional pedestrian flows on pavements or in corridors. However, the concept reaches its limit in case of more complex situations like bi- and multi-directional streams, e.g. at railway stations, airports or large public events. Several disasters in context of large public events revealed the lack of applicable rules. The deficit is explainable against the background of missing experience. Neither emergency forces and responsible authorities nor researchers in the area of pedestrian dynamics have a valid database to describe multi-directional streams in high densities. As part of the research project ‘BaSiGo—Bausteine für die Sicherheit von Großveranstaltungen’, large-scale laboratory experiments with about 2,000 pedestrians have been conducted in 2013. The aim of the work is to convert the ‘Level of Service’ concept into a ‘Level of Safety’ concept for large public events. A first approach for the new concept, based on a traffic light system (green, yellow, red), is presented in this article.

Stefan Holl, Maik Boltes, Armin Seyfried

### Brazilian Legislation and the Boate Kiss Tragedy: Computational Modelling of Evacuation

Brazil was recentlyBraga, Henrique C. the scenario of a greatMoita, Gray F. tragedy in the nightclub Boate Kiss, whereAlmeida, Paulo E.M. 242 people were killed. The starting point of the fire was the use of a pyrotechnic device over an acoustic coating made of a kind of polyurethane foam. The causalities were caused mainly by asphyxia and by the inhalation of toxic gases. However, several additional causes contributed to the amount of damage and human losses. The investigation emphasised the necessity to discuss details in the applicable Brazilian legislation. In this work, the Boate Kiss tragedy is presented and the some of their mainly aspects discussed. The software FUGA, used to simulate the evacuation process, is also summarised. A computational model for evacuations in environments similar to the Boate Kiss is built and analysed. Finally, some considerations are made in order to improve the current Brazilian safety codes.

Henrique C. Braga, Gray F. Moita, Paulo E. M. Almeida

### Simulation of Crowd in the Corridor of Ziara in Masjid-e-Nabwi, Madinah

Visitors to Saudi ArabiaAlshehri, Abdullah for Hajj and Umrah fromArif, Muhammad around the globeFelamban, Emad are constantly increasing with each passing year and hence visitors to the Prophet Muhammad (S.A.W)’s mosque, in Madina Munawara are also increasing. This paper investigates numerically the corridor of Ziara Place which is the most congestion place in the mosque. In order to improve crowd management and minimise the occurrence of emergency situations or hazardous conditions necessary arrangements e.g. decreasing the waiting time, avoiding barriers, controlling the crowd size and optimising the queuing process, are suggested. Certain simulation scenarios are studied in helping to reduce the risk of people colliding into each other, as well as helping to reduce long waiting times in this particular area. Visitor’s behaviour, crowd density, and crowd flow around the Prophet (S.A.W)’s grave is analysed for varying crowd densities.

### Pedestrian Dynamics at Transit Stations: An Integrated Pedestrian Flow Modelling Approach

The objectivePorter, Emily of this chapterHamdar, Samer is to exploreDaamen, Winnie an integrated modelling framework that captures pedestrian walking behaviour in congested and uncongested conditions and covers different traffic dynamics caused by complex geometric and operational characteristics such as those observed in transit stations. The integrated modelling framework is built using concepts from the Social Force model, behavioural heuristics, and materials science. Pedestrian trajectory data provided by the Delft University of Technology were used to test the validity of the aforementioned modelling framework. A simulation study showed that the model reproduces realistic trajectory patterns in an environment similar to that at the Foggy Bottom METRO station in Washington, D.C, USA.

Emily Porter, Samer Hamdar, Winnie Daamen

### PedVis: Pedestrian Flow Visualisations

More and more peopleSchmid, Jimmy are usingKlingemann, HaraldpublicScheuermann, Arne transport. The SwissBühling, Judith Federal RailwaysBernasconi, Nicolo (SBB) are expandingFlückiger, Michael their railway stations and redesigning them so that all passengers will in future still reach their destinations safely and quickly. In this context, the depiction, planning and simulation of people flows (customer flows, movement patterns) are of increasing importance. This project will open up new access points in this field. Starting with seven topical clusters, different aspects of people flows will be analysed and depicted anew, based on a comprehensive collection of images. The prototypes for new visualisations developed from this have been validated using a Delphi survey of expert opinions and tested for their future potential. The SBB have been presented with a catalogue of recommendations with all the visualisation models, and a practice manual will be developed during the last phase of the project.

Jimmy Schmid, Harald Klingemann, Arne Scheuermann, Judith Bühling, Nicolo Bernasconi, Michael Flückiger

### Facing Needs and Requirements of Crowd Modelling: Towards a Dedicated Computer Vision Toolset

The modellingKhan, Sultan Daud and simulationVizzari, Giuseppe of pedestriansBandini, Stefania and crowd dynamics require empirical evidences and quantitative data describing the relevant phenomena that models must be able to reproduce. Computer vision can provide several tools both to semi-automatically acquire the demand of a given situation and actually configure a simulation model, as well as to gather information for the sake of model calibration and validation. This paper proposes methods supporting the segmentation and pedestrian counting of crowd flows, the identification and characterisation of main flows in an analysed scene and the detection of social groups in an observed population. The methods are briefly introduced and the achieved results are presented and discussed with reference to the current state of the art.

Sultan Daud Khan, Giuseppe Vizzari, Stefania Bandini

### Computer-Aided Bifurcation Analysis for a Novel Car-Following Model with Relative Velocity Effect

TheTomoeda, Akiyasu global behaviourMiyaji, Tomoyuki of mathematical modelsIkeda, Kota for traffic flow is important in order to understand their characteristics because of the bistable property observed in real traffic. This bi-stability can be discussed in a bifurcation analysis. In fact, bifurcation analysis of optimal velocity models in several studies has revealed the global bifurcation structure of the model, which shows a loss of stability due to the Hopf bifurcation and bistable property. Shamoto et al. proposed a novel car-following model with relative velocity effect (STNN model), which was not introduced into the optimal velocity model, but is important in real traffic scenarios. They discussed the linear stability of homogeneous traffic flow; however, they did not reveal the global bifurcation structure of the STNN model. In this paper, we numerically investigated the global bifurcation structure of the STNN model and observed that the strength of the relative velocity effect drastically changes the bifurcation structure. This result provides a possibility of implementing (semi-)automatic driving systems to alleviate traffic jams.

Akiyasu Tomoeda, Tomoyuki Miyaji, Kota Ikeda

### Lane Change Strategies on Freeways: A Microscopic Simulation Study

UnderstandingKeyvan-Ekbatani, Mehdi the influence of lane changing manoeuvres on theKnoop, Victor L. capacity, stability, and breakdownGrébert, Vincent of traffic flows is aDaamen, Winnie crucial issue. In a recent study, four distinct lane change strategies on freeways have been found: (1) Speed Leading; (2) Speed Leading with Overtaking; (3) Lane Leading; (4) Traffic Leading. To the best of our knowledge, combining speed choice and lane preference is not currently considered in most driving behaviour models. The principal aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the forenamed lane change strategies on freeway traffic operations. The developed strategy-based lane change model has been implemented in a microscopic simulation environment. The study revealed that different lane change strategies may have various impact on the lane flow distribution and consequently on the freeway capacity. It has been seen that an unbalanced distribution of flow on a multi-lane freeway may lead to reduction of capacity. In addition, it has been found that the lane change rate variates under different lane change strategies. The highest traffic stability has been observed under speed leading and speed leading with overtaking strategies.

Mehdi Keyvan-Ekbatani, Victor L. Knoop, Vincent Grébert, Winnie Daamen

### When Is a Bottleneck a Bottleneck?

Bottlenecks, i.e. local reductionsSchadschneider, Andreas of capacity, areSchmidt, Johannes one of the most relevantPopkov, Vladislav scenarios of traffic systems. The asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) with a defect is a minimal model for such a bottleneck scenario. One crucial question is “What is the critical strength of the defect that is required to create global effects, i.e. traffic jams localised at the defect position”. Intuitively, one would expect that already an arbitrarily small bottleneck strength leads to global effects in the system, e.g. a reduction of the maximal current. Therefore, it came as a surprise when, based on computer simulations, it was claimed that the reaction of the system depends in non-continuous way on the defect strength and weak defects do not have a global influence on the system. Here, we reconcile intuition and simulations by showing that indeed the critical defect strength is zero. We discuss the implications for the analysis of empirical and numerical data.

### Jam Avoidance with Autonomous Systems

ManyTordeux, Antoine car-following modelsLassarre, Sylvain have been developed for jam avoidance in highways. Two mechanisms are used to improve the stability: feedback control with autonomous models and increasing of the interaction within cooperative ones. In this paper, we compare the linear autonomous and collective optimal velocity (OV) models. We observe that the stability is significantly increased by adding predecessors in interaction with collective models. Yet, autonomous and collective approaches are close when the speed difference term is taken into account. In the linear OV models tested, the autonomous models including speed difference are sufficient to maximise the stability.

Antoine Tordeux, Sylvain Lassarre

### Modelling Backward Travelling Holes in Mixed Traffic Conditions Using an Agent Based Simulation

AAgarwal, Amit spatial queue model in aLammel, Gregor@Lämmel, Gregor multi-agent simulationNagel, Kai framework is extended by introducing a more realistic behaviour, i.e. backward travelling holes. Space corresponding to a leaving vehicle is not available immediately on the upstream end of the link. Instead, the space travels backward with a constant speed. This space is named a ‘hole’. The resulting dynamics resemble Newell’s simplified kinematic wave model. Furthermore, fundamental diagrams from homogeneous and heterogeneous traffic simulations are presented. The sensitivity of the presented approach is tested with the help of flow density contours.

Amit Agarwal, Gregor Lämmel, Kai Nagel

### Analysis in Kantorovich Geometric Space for Quasi-stable Patterns in 2D-OV Model

TheIshiwata, Ryosuke two-dimensional optimalSugiyama, Yuki velocity (2D-OV) model, which consists of self-driven particles, reproduces a big variety of dynamical patterns as seen in biological collective motions (Sugiyama (2009) Natural Computing. Springer Japan, Tokyo [7]). We perform simulations of the 2D-OV model in a simple maze. Dynamically stable patterns are observed from the simulation results. The stability of the patterns seems to be related to a kind of degeneracy of a state. In order to look for some physical quantity, which can indicate the relation between the stability and the degeneracy, we construct a geometric space based on the Kantorovich distance among patterns and represent the changing of flow pattern as the trajectory in the geometric space. As a result, a point corresponding to distributions of particles for the quasi-stable pattern converges to the localised region in the space.

Ryosuke Ishiwata, Yuki Sugiyama

### Fractal Analysis of Empirical and Simulated Traffic Time Series

TimeZaksek, Thomas series canSchreckenberg, Michael show signs of fractal and multi-fractal behaviour. An analysis from this perspective can unearth features of time series that remain hidden for analysis with standard statistics. We analyse the multi-fractal spectra of traffic time series with the help of Multi-fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MDFA). Empirical time series of traffic flows and velocities measured by loop detectors are compared with time series gathered from traffic simulations. As a second focus, we analyse multi-fractal features of time series from different vehicle classes, i.e. passenger and transport traffic.

Thomas Zaksek, Michael Schreckenberg

### Wide Scattering of Nagel-Schreckenberg Fundamental Diagram Under Traffic Bottlenecks

BasedQuek, Wei Liang on current traffic flowChew, Lock Yue studies, there are several traffic cellular automaton (TCA) models, in which the wide scattering of flow-density data are observed. In this study, we propose that the physical mechanism behind the observed wide scattering is the variability of cluster formation in congested traffic. By simulating road bottlenecks on highways using the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NaSch) model, varying degrees of wide scattering is observed. Numerical analysis of the results shows a strong correlation between the variance in the number of clusters and the width of scattering in the flow-density data. By studying the microscopic dynamics of the NaSch model, we proposed the physical mechanism of wide scattering in TCA models to be the heterogeneity of cluster formation in congested traffic flow. In addition, the results were compared with Tian (2012)’s Average Space Gap Model (ASGM) and through qualitative analysis, we suggest that the wide scattering observed is due to the AGSM mechanism favouring statistically unfavourable cluster configurations.

Wei Liang Quek, Lock Yue Chew

### A General Scheme for Deterministic Microscopic Traffic Models. Part I: Theoretical Construction

WeYang, Bo propose a theoretical constructionMonterola, Christopher of the master model for the deterministic microscopic traffic models with the assumption of identical drivers. The construction is based on a renormalisation like procedure that integrates out unimportant degrees of freedom. This leads to a universal mathematical structure of such models, enabling us to carry out a controlled expansion, allowing all deterministic microscopic traffic models to be compared and classified systematically. We illustrate the controlled expansion with a few examples. The theoretical construction also paves the way for us to obtain the master model from the microscopic empirical data, which will be discussed in A General Scheme for Deterministic Microscopic Traffic Models. Part II: Empirical Verifications.

Bo Yang, Christopher Monterola

### A General Scheme for Deterministic Microscopic Traffic Models. Part II: Empirical Verifications

WeYang, Bo describe the techniquesYoon, Jiwei for the extractionMonterola, Christopher of the microscopic empirical data from high frame-rate videos of the traffic flows in Singapore. Such data include accelerations, velocities, headways and approach velocities. Following the discussions and the proposal from A General Scheme for Deterministic Microscopic Traffic Models. Part I: Theoretical Construction, we aggregate the collected microscopic empirical data by the proper sampling and the averaging of the unimportant factors influencing the driving behaviours, and present some of the tentative results in mapping the master model for the deterministic microscopic traffic models.

Bo Yang, Jiwei Yoon, Christopher Monterola

### Influence of Various Traffic Densities on 1/f Noise

Previously, weThieberger, Reuben examined 1/f noise for a simple cellular automata model. For illustrative purposes, we considered a specific case of approaching a city. The case involves a traffic light where one continues on the main road, where additional cars are entering at the light. At this intersection an alternative route begins, which is longer, but where no additional cars are entering. In this paper we add a ‘slow to start’ model. We calculate the Fourier transform of the average velocity for each traffic light cycle. We consider different average ‘slow to start cases’ and obtain different results for different cases. All cases can be written as $$1/f^{\alpha }$$. We check by least squares the value of $$\alpha$$. We compare qualitatively our results to experiments. When we do not assume cars which are ‘slow to start’, the results differ from the experiment, but when we introduce ‘slow to start’ cars, the results are similar to the experimental values. We consider different densities of cars. There are different characteristics for low densities, mid range and high densities.

Reuben Thieberger

### A Multi-class Vehicular Flow Model for Aggressive Drivers

TheMarques Jr., Wilson kinetic theory approachesVelasco, Rosa María to vehicularMéndez, Alma traffic modelling have given very good results in the understanding of the dynamical phenomena involved [3, 8]. In this work, we deal with the kinetic approach modelling of a traffic situation where there are many classes of aggressive drivers [5]. Their aggressiveness is characterised through their relaxation times. The reduced Paveri-Fontana equation is taken as a starting point to set the model. It contains the usual drift terms and the interactions between drivers of the same class, as well as the corresponding one between different classes. The reference traffic state used in the kinetic treatment is determined by a dimensionless parameter. The balance equations for the density and average speed for each class are obtained through the usual methods in the kinetic theory. In this model, we consider that each class of drivers preserve the corresponding aggressiveness, in such a way that there will be no adaptation effects [6]. It means that the number of drivers in a class is conserved. As preliminary results, we have obtained a closure relation to derive the Euler-like equations for two drivers classes. Some characteristics of the model are explored with the usual methods.

Wilson Marques, Rosa María Velasco, Alma Méndez

### Microscopic Simulations of Oversaturated City Traffic: Features of Synchronised Flow Patterns

UnderstandingHermanns, Gerhard the physics ofHemmerle, Peter vehicular traffic and the emergenceRehborn, Hubert of trafficKerner, Boris S. patterns in citySchreckenberg, Michael traffic is important for the implementation of traffic management measures. Recently, the synchronised flow pattern has been found in empirical GPS probe vehicle data of oversaturated city traffic (Phys Rev E 90:032810, 2014 [13]). Traffic simulation models based on classical theories cannot reproduce this synchronised flow. We present simulation results of oversaturated city traffic with the stochastic microscopic Kerner-Klenov traffic flow model that is based on Kerner’s three-phase traffic theory. These results show features of synchronised flow. It is found that the drivers speed adaptation effect plays the key role in the understanding of the emergence of synchronised flow in oversaturated city traffic. The physical meaning of the speed adaptation effect in oversaturated city traffic is explained. The influence of the speed adaptation effect on the average speed and travel time in oversaturated city traffic is investigated.

Gerhard Hermanns, Peter Hemmerle, Hubert Rehborn, Boris S. Kerner, Michael Schreckenberg

### Traffic Simulations with Empirical Data: How to Replace Missing Traffic Flows?

ForHabel, Lars the real-timeMolina, Alejandro microscopic simulationZaksek, Thomas of traffic onKersting, Kristian a real-worldSchreckenberg, Michael road network, a continuous input stream of empirical data from different locations is usually needed to achieve good results. Traffic flows for example are needed to properly simulate the influence of slip roads and motorway exits. However, quality and reliability of empirical traffic data is sometimes a problem for example because of damaged detectors, transmission errors or simply lane diversions at road works. In this contribution, we attempt to close those data gaps of missing traffic flows with processed historical traffic data. Therefore, we compare a temporal approach based on exponential smoothing with a data-driven approach based on Poisson Dependency Networks.

Lars Habel, Alejandro Molina, Thomas Zaksek, Kristian Kersting, Michael Schreckenberg

### Dynamic Model for Assignment in a ‘Sky-Car’ Transit System: Spatial Interactions with Other Common Transport Modes

ThisSossoe, Kwami paper providesLebacque, Jean-Patrick a Lagrangian dynamic fluid model of the traffic of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) system or of personal rapid maglev-transporters. The transport system using these maglev-transporters or sky-podcars operates in the style of demand-responsive systems. The advantage of the sky-podcars is that they are fast and that they do not operate in the same physical space as the other ground transportation modes. Thus they will contribute to alleviate congestion. We model the dynamics of the sky-podcars transportation system and we solve the problem of relocation with minimum cost in this maglev system. An analysis of assumptions of effective operation of the PRT is carried out. Reactive dynamic assignment in such PRT system is described. In a multi-modal transport system where the maglev-transporters mode is taken into account, we describe the multi-modal dynamic assignment and its spatial interactions with other common transportation systems.

Kwami Sossoe, Jean-Patrick Lebacque

### Phenomena-Based Traffic Flow Multi-scale Modelling

TheJoueiai, Mahtab aim of multi-scaleVan Lint, Hans modelling is developingHoogendoorn, Serge P. both theoretical and computational methods that can be used to couple microscopic, mesoscopic and coarse-level descriptions of complex traffic system, in order to describe a variety of phenomena. In multi-scale modelling approach, the modelling paradigms are switched dynamically depending on traffic condition. One important question in this approach pertains to the criteria that trigger the switching mechanism. The time and position of shifting from one modelling paradigm to the next should be chosen such that the consistency of traffic features at the interface between implemented models is ensured. This paper presents a generic simulation strategy that enables shifting paradigm from one modelling scale to the next, based on the propagation and emergence of traffic phenomena. The interface between implemented models in this approach, dynamically adapt its position regards the phenomenon of interest. The paper concludes with an illustrative example that shows the applicability of our proposed methods.

Mahtab Joueiai, Hans van Lint, Serge Hoogendoorn

### Calibrating the Local and Platoon Dynamics of Car-Following Models on the Reconstructed NGSIM Data

TheKurtc, Valentina NGSIM trajectoryTreiber, Martin data are used to calibrate two car-following models—the IDM and the FVDM. We used the I80 dataset which has already been reconstructed to eliminate outliers, non-physical data, and internal and platoon inconsistencies contained in the original data. We extract from the data leader-follower pairs and platoons of up to five consecutive vehicles thereby eliminating all trajectories that are too short or contain lane changes. Four error measures based on speed and gap deviations are considered. Furthermore, we apply three calibration methods: local or direct calibration, global calibration, and platoon calibration. The last approach means that a platoon of several vehicles following a data-driven leader is simulated and compared to the observed dynamics.

Valentina Kurtc, Martin Treiber

### Scaling from Circuit Experiment to Real Traffic Based on Optimal Velocity Model

The optimal velocityNakayama, AkihiroKikuchi, MacotoShibata, AkihiroSugiyama, YukiTadaki, Shin-ichiYukawa, Satoshi (OV) model was proposed to explain the physical mechanism of jam formation. The emergence of a traffic jam can be understood as a kind of dynamical phase transition. We confirmed the physical mechanism by two experiments. In this study, we investigate the relation between experimental results and observations of real traffic based on the OV model. In the OV model, the critical density at which a traffic jam occurs is determined by the OV function. The OV function is estimated from data of headway and velocity obtained by the experiments. Then, we propose a scaling rule of the OV function from the experiments to real traffic. Using this rule, we obtain critical density as a function of a single parameter. The obtained critical density is consistent with the observed values for highway traffic. From this result, we conclude that the jam formation in real traffic is explained by the same mechanism as the circuit experiments.

Akihiro Nakayama, Macoto Kikuchi, Akihiro Shibata, Yuki Sugiyama, Shin-ichi Tadaki, Satoshi Yukawa

### Traffic Flow Optimisation at Sags by Controlling the Acceleration of Some Vehicles

SagsGoñi-Ros, Bernat are bottlenecksKnoop, Victor L. in freewayKitahama, Kenichi networks. NowadaysVan Arem, Bart, thereHoogendoorn, Serge P. is a growing interest in the development of traffic management measures for sags based on the use of in-car systems. This contribution determines the movements that individual (equipped) vehicles should make in order to minimise congestion. Specifically, we optimise the accelerations of some selected vehicles as they move along a one-lane freeway stretch with a sag, setting as objective the minimisation of total travel time. The optimisation results highlight the relevance of two traffic management strategies: (a) motivating drivers to accelerate fast along sags; and (b) limiting the inflow to sags. Also, they suggest ways to apply these strategies in practice by regulating the acceleration of vehicles equipped with in-car systems. These results prove the usefulness of the proposed method as a tool for control measure development.

Bernat Goñi-Ros, Victor L. Knoop, Kenichi Kitahama, Bart van Arem, Serge P. Hoogendoorn

### Impact of Synchronised Flow in Oversaturated City Traffic on Energy Efficiency of Conventional and Electrical Vehicles

InHemmerle, Peter this studyKoller, Micha of cityHermanns, Gerhard traffic, we show thatSchreckenberg, MichaelempiricalRehborn, Hubert synchronised flow patternsKerner, Boris S., which have been revealed recently in oversaturated traffic, exhibit considerable impact on the energy efficiency of vehicles. In particular, we have found that energy consumption in oversaturated city traffic can decrease considerably when the oversaturated city traffic consists of synchronised flow patterns rather than consisting of moving queues of the classical traffic flow theory at traffic signals. Using empirical GPS data measured by navigation devices on two different road sections in Düsseldorf, Germany, we show that synchronised flow patterns and moving queues differ in their cumulated vehicle acceleration (a sum of positive speed differences along a vehicle trajectory) despite similar mean speeds. Energy efficiency in return is dependent on the cumulated vehicle acceleration. We consider both the fuel consumption of conventional vehicles with combustion engines and the energy balance of electrical vehicles.

Peter Hemmerle, Micha Koller, Gerhard Hermanns, Michael Schreckenberg, Hubert Rehborn, Boris S. Kerner

### Evaluation of Air Transportation Network Resilience Using Adaptive Capacity

EnhancingYoo, Suhyung network resilienceYeo, Hwasoo has been an important research topic for several decades with the increasing failures of critical infrastructure by disasters or terrorist attack. For critical infrastructures, such as electricity grid, water supply, and transportation, reliability to provide a stable level of service is most required. This paper proposes a resilience evaluation methodology with application to air transportation system. It is one of the major worldwide transportation modes and known as one of representative scale-free networks, which is relatively robust against random failure but vulnerable to targeted attack on hubs. This paper evaluates the air transportation network resilience using proposed adaptive capacity concept. Suggested measurements quantify the adaptive capacity, by which the capability of a network is to replace the damaged node with other redundancy of the network. Consequently, this study will help to diagnose the network resilience and contribute to planning for improvement of network resilience.

Suhyung Yoo, Hwasoo Yeo

### Network-Wide Mesoscopic State Estimation Based on a Variational Formulation of the LWR Model and Using Lagrangian Observations

ThisYuan, YufeipaperDuret, AurélienpresentsVan Lint, Hans a generic data assimilation framework based on a mesoscopic-LWR model formulated in Lagrangian-space coordinates and using Lagrangian observations. This is a challenging work since probe trajectories are not directly related to specific vehicle/platoon indexes in the simulation model. Therefore, we develop a method to incorporate probe information and to further estimate states. The proposed method has been validated on a homogeneous road stretch, and it provides promising results for further extension of the framework.

Yufei Yuan, Aurélien Duret, Hans van Lint

### Route Choice Behaviour in a Three Roads Scenario

WeWegerle, DominikpresentSchreckenberg, Michael results of three simple three roads scenarios, which were simulated with an extended Nagel–Schreckenberg CA model. We studied how the global travel times of cars could be optimised by simple routing or distribution strategies. Besides the well-known methods as shortest path, travel times and equal distribution we tested alternating loads and present two strategies based on a remaining road capacity. The strategies were applied only to 25 % of the cars, whereas the remaining cars and trucks were distributed over the three roads as a fixed proportional load. The first scenario contains three different road lengths of 20, 22 and 24 km length and the fixed load is evenly distributed. In the second scenario, all three roads have a length of 20 km, but the fixed load is distributed unequally. The third scenario combines the different road length with an unequally distributed load.

Dominik Wegerle, Michael Schreckenberg

### Traffic Phase Dependent Fuel Consumption

FuelKoller, MichaconsumptionHemmerle, PeterisRehborn, HubertoneKerner, Boris S.ofKaufmann, Stefan the key cost factors relevant for the movement of vehicles. In times of increasing traffic congestion on both freeways and urban road sections the question arises how the fuel consumption is influenced by congestions congestion occurring in many sections of the road network. Congested traffic states are defined based on Kerner’s three-phase traffic theory [1, 2]. The article presents the probability functions of traffic breakdowns for road sections: the probability curve as function of the traffic flow rate is an increasing function of the flow rate and similar for both freeway an urban sections with traffic signals [4]. Therefore, the recognition of traffic breakdowns and the determination of the emerging traffic state is crucial for the prediction of the additional fuel consumption. By investigating empirical field data from vehicles driving on a specific freeway section statistical analysis reveals the additional fuel consumption factors for the two different congested states in comparison to free flow.

Micha Koller, Peter Hemmerle, Hubert Rehborn, Boris Kerner, Stefan Kaufmann

### Examining Perimeter Gating Control of Urban Traffic Networks with Locally Adaptive Traffic Signals

TraditionallyKeyvan-Ekbatani, Mehdi, urbanGao, XueyutrafficGayah, Vikash V. is controlledKnoop, Victor L. by traffic lights. Recent findings of the Macroscopic or Network Fundamental Diagram (MFD or NFD) have led to the development of novel traffic control strategies that can be applied at a network-wide level. One pertinent example is perimeter flow control (also known as gating or metering), which limits the rate at which vehicles are allowed to enter an urban region. This paper studies to which extent a combination of adaptive traffic control and gating improves the traffic flow. To this end, combinations of gating and traffic signal timing tested implemented in a microsimulation. It is found that gating is much more effective than adaptive signal timing for high traffic loads. Adaptive signal timing can improve the network performance by increasing the maximum flow and increasing the critical accumulation, i.e. the number of vehicles inside a protected network for which the performance is maximised. The latter helps to reduce queuing outside the protected network.

Mehdi Keyvan-Ekbatani, Xueyu Gao, Vikash V. Gayah, Victor L. Knoop

### A Comparison of Tram Priority at Signalised Intersections in Melbourne

WeZhang, LelestudyGaroni, TimothytramShiri, Somayeh priority at signalised intersections using a stochastic cellular automaton model for multi-modal traffic flow. We simulate realistic traffic signal systems, which include signal linking and adaptive cycle lengths and split plans, with different levels of tram priority. We find that tram priority can improve service performance in terms of both average travel time and travel time variability. We consider two main types of tram priority, which we refer to as full and partial priority. Full tram priority is able to guarantee service quality even when traffic is saturated, however, it results in significant costs to other road users. Partial tram priority significantly reduces tram delays while having limited impact on other traffic, and therefore achieves a better result in terms of the overall network performance. We also study variations in which the tram priority is only enforced when trams are running behind schedule, and we find that those variations retain almost all of the benefit for tram operations, but with reduced negative impact on the network.

Lele Zhang, Timothy Garoni, Somayeh Shiri

### Boarding of Finite-Size Passengers to an Airplane

AnKaupužs, Jevgenijs airplane boarding model, introduced earlier by Hemmer and Frette, is considered. In this model, NpassengersMahnke, Reinhard have reserved seats, but enterWeber, Hans the airplane in arbitrary order. Here we focus on the blocking relations between passengers. The total boarding time is equal to the longest blocking sequence, represented by a line, connecting points of the two-dimensional q versus r scatter plot. Here, $$q=i/N$$q=i/N and $$r=j/N$$r=j/N, i and j being sequential numbers of passengers in the queue and their seat numbers, respectively. Such blocking sequences have been studied theoretically by Bachmat. We have developed an algorithm for numerical simulation of the longest blocking sequences, and have compared the results with analytical predictions for $$N \rightarrow \infty$$N→∞.

Jevgenijs Kaupužs, Reinhard Mahnke, Hans Weber

### Collective Dynamics and Motility of Soft Elliptical Particles

Swarming behaviourVan Drongelen, Ruben is abundant in nature. Over many different lengthIdema, Timon scales, in for example herds, flocking birds and swimming bacteria, roughly identical individuals interact locally to achieve group behaviour. The similarities between these examples suggests the existence of a general underlying principle. We propose here a local interaction model for self-propelling, elliptical particles that results in collective motion. Any particle interacts with its neighbours only, experiences noise on its orientation and pushes inwards if it is in the outer layer of the group. Initially, alignment between particles is the result of steric repulsion. We observe two types of group behaviour. The first type is a migrating group, where particles in the bulk are aligned over large length scales, but do not rearrange. The second type has very little net motion. The elliptical particles form smaller regions of aligned and antialigned particles, effectively cancelling the net motion of the group. Finally, we compare the group behaviour of elliptical particles to circular ones and investigate the importance of polar alignment. We conclude that polar alignment is a requirement for large-scale collective dynamics, like collective migration and rotation.

Ruben van Drongelen, Timon Idema

### Capacity Estimation Method of a Waterway Intersection

The growthBellsolà Olba, Xavier of maritime transportationDaamen, Winnie leads to more crowded and intensivelyVellinga, Tiedo used waterwaysHoogendoorn, Serge P.. This research presents a method to estimate the capacity of a waterway intersection. An analogy between roads and waterways is used and the conflict technique is applied to a waterway intersection. The flows in each direction and their conflicting movements lead to the capacity calculation. Data analysis provides insight into vessel behaviour in an intersection. Moreover, the value of the method has been proven with a case study. This is a generic method that can be applied in any waterway intersection based on the conflicts between the different sailing directions in the intersection and the flow shares inferred from empirical data or predictions. Its application can improve traffic management strategies or traffic rules in waterway intersections.

Xavier Bellsolà Olba, Winnie Daamen, Tiedo Vellinga, Serge P. Hoogendoorn

### Granular Flow to a Blast Iron Ore Furnace: Influence of Particle Size Distribution on Segregation of a Mixture

TheSchott, Dingena infeed ofTheVreeburg, Wouter material in a blast furnace isTheMolhoek, Carmen composed of a mixtureTheLodewijks, Gabriel of three different materials: sinter, iron ore pellets and coke. They are each very different in shape, size and mechanical properties and likely this promotes segregation, an unwanted effect. However up till now it is not clear to what extent the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) of each of the three components affects the homogeneity. This work aims to assess the influence of particle size distributions of the individual components on the homogeneity of the infeed material by Discrete Element Model (DEM) Simulations. It can be concluded that modelling the PSD of the individual components is not required to model the tendency to segregate of the mixture of iron ore pellets, sinter and coke. Representing each of the materials by its mean particle size d50 reduces the number of particles and simulation time drastically without compromising the simulation results of the used material models.

Dingena Schott, Wouter Vreeburg, Carmen Molhoek, Gabriel Lodewijks

### Two-Channel Partially Coupled Exclusion Process with Mutually Interactive Langmuir Kinetics

In thisGupta, Arvind Kumar work, we investigate an open system comprised of two-parallel TASEP under partially asymmetric coupling conditions incorporating the mutual interaction with the surrounding environment through Langmuir Kinetics in both the channels. Motivated by the recent finding on clustering of motor proteins on microtubules, the attachment and detachment rates are assumed to be dependent on the state of the neighbouring sites. Under the mean-field assumption, the hydrodynamic equations representing the evolution of particle density is studied and steady-state phase diagrams are obtained. The effect of mutually interactive Langmuir Kinetics (MILK) on the phase diagram is discussed for two different situations. For symmetric MILK, the topological structure of the phase diagram remains preserved; while for the antisymmetric MILK, significant changes are observed in the qualitative nature of phase diagram. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to validate the theoretical findings.

Arvind Kumar Gupta

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