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Über dieses Buch

During the seventies and eighties, the industries associated with the transportation of goods and people have been exposed to some profound changes. The quickening pace of technological change - with its growing emphasis on telecommunications, knowledge-handling capacity, and air transportation - is increasing the discrete character of the world economy. Thus the network structure of global development patterns is becoming more important, with metropolitan centres as key nodes and rapid transportation routes as key links. In this evolutionary situation, changes in the preferred mix of transport modes are inevitable. The faster and more direct modes will be favoured, individually and in combination, and there will be an increasing interest in transportation policies and the provision of infrastructure. This volume contains a collection of innovative papers presented at the First International Conference on Transportation for the Future, held in Södertälje, Sweden in July 1988. Twenty industry leaders and prominent scientists from Europe, USA and Japan present their views about the ongoing transformation of production and distribution systems among firms striving for Just-In-Time methods, economies of scope, and a fully integrated approach to their economic activities. The future of passenger travel and infrastructure are also discussed. The resulting book presents a surprisingly consistent picture of how the transportation industries of the industrialized nations may be expected to grow and change in a long-term perspective.




Chapter 1. Introduction

Studies in various parts of the world have demonstrated that the demand for transport of goods and passengers usually increases more quickly than the GDP per capita. In the developed economies, transport demand grows annually by some 20-25 percent more than the growth of GDP per capita; whereas in the developing economies the growth rate of transport surpasses that of GDP per capita by up to 50 percent. European examples of this growth differential for freight and passenger transport are given in Table 1.1.
David F. Batten, Roland Thord

Transportation and Distribution Systems: Three Visionary Perspectives


Chapter 2. Future Goods Transport in Europe

In order to predict future developments in the field of international goods transport, it is necessary first to analyse some of the important factors which determine these developments. I shall concentrate on three such factors:
Changes in products and production systems.
Changes in the requirements of the world surrounding us concerning, for example, protection of the environment and road safety.
Changes in the possibilities offered by transport technology.
Our goods transport system of the future must, however, not just passively adapt to these developments. We also have a number of specific goals to fulfill. In Scandinavia in particular, these goals concern our ability to uphold our competitive position on the European as well as the overseas markets.
Curt Nicolin

Chapter 3. The Future of the Automobile

I am honored to have been asked to participate in this conference on Transportation for the Future, especially during this year marking the 350th anniversary of the first Swedish settlement in America. Recently I was able to attend a conference in Detroit commemorating this anniversary. This conference was titled “Sweden Works: Industry in Transition”. The purpose of the Sweden Works conference was to describe lessons that Swedish industry (and especially the Swedish automotive industry) can teach U.S. industry (especially the U.S. automotive industry). Major presentations were made by members of top management of Volvo, Saab and the new Volvo-GMC heavy truck joint venture. These presentations made a convincing case that General Motors — and, indeed, the rest of U.S. industry — can learn a great deal from Sweden’s accomplishments.
George C. Eads

Chapter 4. The Emerging C-Society

Industrial and regional development in Europe has been shaped by the growth and change of logistical systems, i.e. the slow but steady evolution of logistical infrastructure. Logistical infrastructure is in this context defined to be equipment and networks used for the transportation and distribution of commodities, people, information, and knowledge. The logistical system of an economy also includes the infrastructure within urban nodes.
Åke E. Andersson, Ulf Strömquist

The Transport-Communication Nexus: Some Evolutionary Trends


Chapter 5. Expanding Territories: Transport Systems Past and Future

Transport and communication systems are the elements which integrate human activities in space and time. They record our past and will be the important determinants of our future. As a rule, those forms of infrastructure which are used for the movement of people, goods and information diffuse slowly and span many decades from their first introduction to obsolescence. Some of them are almost immortal, even though they often provide different services from those originally intended. Obsolete canals were reused to build railways a century ago in England. Ancient Roman roads have often been buried beneath modern highways. Old harbours are being converted into modern commercial and residential areas.
Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Chapter 6. The Future of Transport and Interface Communication: Debating the Scope for Substitution Growth

Transport and telecommunications are complementary technologies, jointly contributing to the efficient functioning of our economic and social systems. Yet, as means of interaction, they are also competitors. Greater use of telecommunications has partly replaced the need for travel in certain situations.
David F. Batten

Chapter 7. Using Technology to Improve Transportation Services

The life cycle concept has long been used by technologists and managers of research and development, and it is increasingly used by managers of firms and policy analysts (Ayres and Steger, 1985). It applies to products, and it uses a biological language. A product is conceived as an idea and birthed as a prototype. With subsequent refinement, it begins to be adopted by markets. Eventually, a rather standardized product saturates the market, senescence is boded when sales are mainly replacement ones or when competing products begin to nibble away markets.
William L. Garrison

The Future of Surface Transport


Progress with Navigation Technology

Chapter 8. Automobile Navigation Technology: Where is It Going?

During the 1980s, numerous automobile and electronic manufacturers have become active in the development of sophisticated navigation, route guidance, and information systems that will provide unprecedented convenience and benefits to drivers in the 1990s and beyond. The potential of these systems for improving traffic management and for efficient and safe utilization of road transport has also prompted the formation of national programs such as the Caltrans/FHWA/General Motors Pathfinder Project in the United States, RAGS and AMTICS in Japan, and international programs such as PROMETHEUS (see the APPENDIX) and other EUREKA projects in Europe. Both commercial and public sector organizations are already beginning to use some of the same technologies to monitor vehicle location and control fleets used for distribution and delivery of goods, courier and postal services, law enforcement, ambulance service, etc.
Robert L. French

Chapter 9. The Cacs Project: How Far Away are We from the Dynamic Route Guidance System?

The CACS project was carried out over 6 years by the Agency of Industrial Science & Technology, MITI, beginning in 1973. In this project, the dynamic route guidance system (DRGS) with considerable scale was experimentally implemented on the road network of Tokyo metropolitan area as the first challenge. Immediately after the project was completed, the Association of Electronic Technology for Automobile Traffic and Driving (JSK: Abbr. of Japanese name) was established by MITI and major private companies in order to follow up on the project.
Haruki Fujii

Chapter 10. Contributions of Transportation Network Modeling to the Development of a Real-Time Route Guidance System

The choices facing most urban travelers concerning frequently — made trips, such as the daily journeys to and from work, pertain to the route of travel and the time of departure. Some of these travelers may also consider the choice of mode, if indeed a choice is available to them. The basis for these choices largely consists of the traveler’s experience with the performance of specific travel choice combinations selected during past excursions. Even this experience, however, is gained sequentially as a series of related events; real opportunities to compare the performance (e.g. travel time, cost, comfort, etc.) of alternative choices of routes and departure times are rarely available. Since travel conditions vary markedly from hour to hour, as well as day to day, this sequential experience provides only a rough guide to the traveler, and offers little opportunity for ex post comparison with discarded choice alternatives.
David E. Boyce

Goods Transportation

Chapter 11. The Future of Truck Transportation in Europe

Long term forecasts on the economic development of the EEC and EFTA member states are generally optimistic despite the continuing problems affecting worldwide economic growth such as unsatisfactory structural adjustments, unemployment and imbalances in foreign trade.
Hellmuth St. Seidenfus

Chapter 12. The Influence of Advanced Technology on Future Truck Development

Today’s technical development is forging ahead at a pace that would have seemed incredible only a few years ago. Many of us find it difficult to grasp and follow events in high technology — computers, micro-electronics, new materials, biotechnology and so on. How can this technical development be of any interest to something as mundane and unglamorous as trucks and buses? Truck engineering is a mature technology with a century of evolution behind it. So can we expect any revolutionary news? It all depends on our expectations on the degree of novelty. But developments in high technology also open new opportunities to truck designers, provided that we know what our customers need and what they demand of our products, and provided that we are sufficiently curious, interested and creative to put the new technology to use and make our seemingly simple products more advanced and better suited for the transport duties for which they are intended.
Stig Ericsson

Passenger Transport and Commuting

Chapter 13. Passenger Transport Trends

Information and communication technology is conquering increasingly larger markets with its dramatic growth rate. The driving force behind this development is presumably the improving cost-efficiency relationship, but also the play instinct of human beings which is stimulated by the interesting possibilities offered. Developments in the telecommunication sector already begin to irritate the planning experts who are concerned with the operation and improvement of passenger and goods transport.
Karl Krel

Chapter 14. The Long Term Development of Passenger Traffic Demand: The German Example

When we think about the future of our societies, and more specifically the future of transportation, we normally have the industrialized countries in our minds. These are characterized by a higher standard of living as measured by the average annual income per person. We also find high rates of motor vehicle ownership. Important differences exist with respect to population density. As can be seen from Table 14.1, there is a wide variation in population density between the countries mentioned, ranging from 19 inhabitants per square kilometre for Sweden to over 350 persons per square kilometre in the Netherlands.
Johannes Grevsmähl

Preparing for the Future


Chapter 15. Transport Education and Training: Preparing for the Future

Various speakers before me in this conference on “Transportation for the Future” have naturally dealt with the future evolution of transport and their technological and economic visions and expectations in this connection, with particular reference to the transportation of goods, and primarily to road transport.
Joseph van Stappen

Chapter 16. The Infrastructural Challenge for Future Transportation — Some Critical Issues

In almost every industrial investment decision the infrastructure of the transport sector is taken for granted. The same goes for the government’s long term economic planning and most of the policymaking in fields like social welfare, education, regional policy and employment. And rightly so, when we take into account the very long run that applies to the planning and construction of such basic facilities as railways, airports, road networks etc. The investment needs that we identify today will normally take between ten and fifteen years of planning, decisionmaking and construction to complete (if they are possible at all). Then we will use these constructions for 30–40 years (or perhaps even longer). We need to make the right investments, because the expenses will be so high that we will not be able to afford to correct any mistakes within a reasonable period of time. The conclusion is that what we are planning for today will to an important extent define our transport conditions for the next fifty years or so.
Dan Näsman


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