Travel Time Reliability Analysis of Arterial Road Based on Burr Distribution

Travel time distribution has been widely used to characterize the arterial road traffic conditions and help to analyze travel time reliability. Based on automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) data, this paper studies the travel time distribution and reliability of urban arterial roads and analyzes the relationship between the number of intersections and travel time characteristics. Firstly, the ANPR data is fitted by Burr distribution, and conducted the goodness-of-fit tests. Then, the coefficient of variation, buffer index and planning time index are used as reliability evaluation indexes to evaluate the travel time reliability. The results indicate that Burr distribution has a high acceptance rate. With the increase of the number of intersections, the route travel time distribution tends to a stable unimodal distribution, and the goodness of fit of Burr distribution increases, and the values of the three reliability evaluation indexes decrease, indicating that the travel time fluctuation decreases and the reliability increases.