16. Treeline Responsiveness to Climate Warming: Insights from a Krummholz Treeline in Rolwaling Himal, Nepal

At a global scale, the elevational position of natural upper treelines is determined by low temperatures during growing season. Thus, climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. Himalayan treeline ecotones show considerable differences in altitudinal position as well as in physiognomy and species composition. To assess the sensitivity of a near-natural treeline to climate warming at local scale, we analysed the relations between changes of growth parameters and temperature gradients along the elevational gradient in the treeline ecotone in Rolwaling valley, Nepal, by a multispecies approach. We observed species-specific transition patterns (diameter at breast height, height, tree and recruit densities) and varying degrees of abruptness of these transitions across the treeline ecotone resulting in a complex stand structure. Soil temperatures are associated with physiognomic transitions, treeline position and spatial regeneration patterns. In conclusion, treeline tree species have the potential to migrate upslope in future. Upslope migration, however, is controlled by a dense krummholz belt of Rhododendron campanulatum. Currently, the treeline is rather stable; however we found a prolific regeneration as well as signs of stand densification. Given the spatial heterogeneity of Himalayan treeline ecotones, further studies are needed to fully understand the complex conditions for the establishment and development of tree seedlings and the responsiveness of Himalayan treeline ecotones to climate change.