Unraveling the vulnerability of protected areas to oil palm expansion: The case from Tesso Nilo National Park, Sumatra, Indonesia

Tesso Nilo National Park (TNNP), one of the protected areas (PAs) that is increasingly threatened due to changes in land use that have resulted in large-scale forest fragmentation. This study examines landscape dynamics in TNNP between 2004 to 2024, using advanced geospatial tools, analyzing changes in land cover (LC), and forest fragmentation patterns. Field data and interviews complement the spatial analysis. We found a dramatic decline in forest cover from 87.5% of the total area in 2004 to 32.84% in 2024, with a corresponding increase in agricultural land and bareland. Our results also showed a substantial increase in the number of forest patches and edges, indicating severe habitat disturbance and a reduction in the core area of the forest. The park’s human footprint reached 99.39% modified land, critically threatening the habitat of key species. While Indonesia’s palm oil moratorium and Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) standard have been in place since 2011, weak enforcement and local livelihood dependencies continue to exacerbate fragmentation. We propose an integrated solution involving the restoration of priority connectivity corridors, implementing livelihood transition programs in buffer zones, and using satellite-based monitoring systems to strengthen law enforcement. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated landscape management that combines strict core area protection with sustainable livelihood approaches.