4. Urban Mobility Revolution: A Quantitative Analysis

The quantitative part of the publication highlights current customer demand patterns and shows—based on a targeted survey of potential customers and their future usage behavior—how these might look in 2030. The aim of the survey is to find out how society views the new developments in the automotive industry and what conclusions market participants should draw from this. Will the spread of autonomous driving be delayed due to reservations about safety, higher purchase prices, or data protection concerns? Which purchase criteria will gain importance in the future? Which customer segments determine the pace of market penetration? Will Mobility-as-a-Service models prevail? How could the disposable time during the use of an autonomous vehicle be used and where can OEMs but also companies from outside the industry start to generate recurring revenues? Based on the results of the survey, the potential future market volume of various forms of mobility is derived for different penetration scenarios and the implications for the existing value creation and revenue models are examined.