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Über dieses Buch

This book is on urban resilience – how to design and operate cities that can withstand major threats such as natural disasters and economic downturns and how to recover from them. It is a collection of latest research results from two separate but collaborating research groups, namely, researchers in urban design and those on general resilience theory. The book systematically deals with the core aspects of urban resilience: systems, management issues and populations.

The taxonomy can be broken down into threats, systems, resilience cycles and recovery types in the context of urban resilience. It starts with a discussion of systems resilience models, focusing on the central idea that resilience is a moving average of costs (a set of trajectories in a two-player game paradigm). The second section explores management issues, including planning, operating and emergency response in cities with specific examples such as land-use planning and carbon-neutral scenarios for urban planning. The next section focuses on urban dwellers and specific people-related issues in the context of resilience. Agent-based simulation of behaviour and perception-based resilience, as well as brand crisis management are representative examples of the topics discussed. A further section examines systems like public utilities – including managing power supplies, cyber-security issues and models for pandemics. It concludes with a discussion of the future challenges and risks facing complex systems, for example in resilient power grids, making it essential reading for a wide range of researchers and policymakers.



Systems Resilience, A 30,000 Feet View


Taxonomy and General Strategies for Resilience

This book is devoted to the latest research results on urban resilience. Resilience thinking is not specific to cities—it has been discussed in much broader disciplines and domains in the literature. In this opening chapter, we argue that research works pursuing the common strategies of system resilience require a language that can help describe the specific contexts in which resilience is applied. We propose here taxonomy for general resilience that consists of three orthogonal dimensions, namely, type of shock, characteristic of the target system, and type of recovery. We show that despite its domain-dependency, there exist resilience strategies that cut across multiple disciplines and domains. We identified 25 such strategies and categorize them by the phase of concern in a resilience cycle and discuss which strategies are best applicable to a system with specific characteristics defined in our taxonomy.
Hiroshi Maruyama

Planning Urban Resilience


Urban Economics Model for Land-Use Planning

This chapter introduces our newly developed Spatially explicit Urban Land-use Model (SULM) as a tool for resilient urban planning. The SULM can create land-use and social economic scenarios at micro districts level based on an urban economic theory. In order to co-design transformative urban plans with local stake holders, it is important to visualize possible future land-use scenarios. This model makes it possible to endogenously project the residential choice of households, floor space and land area with considering location-specific disaster risk as well as economic and environmental factors. With this model, we can create scenarios for not only urban growth, but also urban shrinking, thus the method could be useful for both developing and developed countries’ situations. In this study, the model was developed and calibrated for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (Greater Tokyo) at the micro-district level (around 1 km grid) and used to simulate possible land-use scenarios with different urban forms. We have specifically looked at the implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation capacities. This chapter explains mainly the tested three land-use scenarios; (1) Business as usual scenario, (2) Extreme urban compact city scenario, and (3) Combined mitigation and adaptation scenario. The scenarios were assessed with multiple criteria including disaster/energy resilience and environmental sustainability (CO2 emissions, urban climate) and economic benefits. The obtained results have shown that fairly large future economic costs could be saved by additionally considering adaptation (flood risk) in combination with mitigation (CO2 emissions) in the scenario that we call “Wise Shrinking”. Our research suggests that integration of resilience thinking into urban planning is important and promising.
Yoshiki Yamagata, Hajime Seya, Daisuke Murakami

Modeling Urban Heatwave Risk in Adelaide, South Australia

Summer heatwaves are increasingly a feature of a warming global climate and their deleterious effects are most pronounced in urban centres, where populations are concentrated. Large areas of urban green space can have a significant ameliorating effect on high temperatures along with other amenity benefits and are one strategy for improving urban resilience to heatwave hazards. We used a range of spatially explicit climatic and socio-economic data to model hazard, vulnerability and exposure associated with an individual severe heatwave event in Adelaide, South Australia in 2014. Three greening scenarios for the city were then used to model the effects of heatwave risk mitigation on economic valuation and residential location choice under a residential sorting model. We found a greater willingness to pay (WTP), as measured by residential housing prices, by residents in areas with close proximity to green space. Younger age groups, in particular, were more likely to pay for lower temperatures in the urban environment.
Simon Benger, Daisuke Murakami, Yoshiki Yamagata

Flood Risk Management in Cities

While bayside areas, which enjoy coastal natural environment, amenity, scenic landscapes, and so on, are typically attractive residential areas, they are very often vulnerable to flooding too. Unfortunately, flood risk is gradually increasing in Asian cities. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area is known as a high-risk metropolis. Building flood risk resilience while keeping the attractiveness of the bayside area is a critical issue in Tokyo. The objective of this study is to analyze the trade-off between benefits from the ocean and flood risk as a first step to increase urban resilience. To quantify the trade-off, this study uses the hedonic approach. We first review related hedonic studies and discuss which hedonic model is suitable to apply in our analysis. Subsequently, we perform a hedonic analysis of condominium prices and quantify the benefits from ocean-related variables, including ocean view and proximity to the ocean, and the negative effects from the flood risk. Here, a spatial additive multilevel model is used. The analysis results reveal that the flood risk is highly underestimated while the benefits from the ocean are appropriately evaluated in the target area.
Daisuke Murakami, Yoshiki Yamagata

Land Use Planning for Depopulating and Aging Society in Japan

This chapter, based on author’s experience as a professor planner who works closely with local governments and consultants in Japan to draft master plans or planning guidelines, introduces several cases of land use planning for depopulating and aging society with various sudden and progressive risks. The cases include urban master plans for Yokosuka City, Shizuoka City and Suzuka City as well as Mie prefecture’s planning guidelines for disaster mitigation. The author emphasizes that there is no universal approach to land use planning for depopulating and aging society. “Networked-Compact City” might be a broad concept to follow, but actual urban master planning practices show diversity of issues and approaches.
Akito Murayama

Responding to Shocks


Perception-Based Resilience: Accounting for Human Perception in Resilience Thinking with Its Theoretic and Model Bases

We have previously introduced the concept of perception-based resilience that accounts for the impact of human perception in resilience thinking. In this paper, we further this concept as we argue for our novel perception-based resilience model by elucidating its theoretic and model bases and how they fit coherently in the model. To provide traces of evidence to support our model, we analyzed thousands of social media contents that were posted during an actual disaster, and we framed our analyses based on the various aspects of our model. In doing so, we moved our analyses beyond the anecdotal and conventional contribution of social media-based analysis and contribute a novel high-level analysis of social resilience.
Roberto Legaspi, Rungsiman Narararatwong, Nagul Cooharojananone, Hitoshi Okada, Hiroshi Maruyama

Resilient Community Clustering: A Graph Theoretical Approach

Many complex systems can be modeled as a graph consisting of nodes and connecting edges. Such a graph-based model is useful to study the resilience of decentralized systems that handle a system failure by isolating a subsystem with failed components. In this chapter, we study a graph clustering problem for electrical grids where a given grid is partitioned into multiple microgrids that are self-contained in terms of electricity balance. Our goal is to find an optimal partition that minimizes the cost of constructing a set of self-sufficient microgrids. To obtain a better solution accommodating smaller microgrids, we develop an efficient verification algorithm that determines whether microgrids can balance their electricity surplus through electricity exchange among them. Our experimental results with a dataset about Yokohama city in Japan show that our proposed method can effectively reduce the construction cost of decentralized microgrids.
Kazuhiro Minami, Tomoya Tanjo, Nana Arizumi, Hiroshi Maruyama, Daisuke Murakami, Yoshiki Yamagata

Agent-Based Modeling—A Tool for Urban Resilience Research?

Resilience-related topics have been gaining importance for urban planners and policy makers over the last decades. In this chapter, we argue that agent-based modeling (ABM) offers a promising tool to assess and test resilience-related measures which are planned and implemented in urban neighborhoods. We demonstrate potentials, but also limitations of the method, using the concept of urban electricity sharing as a demonstration case. Electricity sharing systems are based on decentralized electricity generation and large batteries. The availability of such a system can provide local communities with a back-up system during black-outs, which may occur in the aftermath of catastrophic events such as natural or man-made disasters. When real-world tests are costly or impossible, agent-based models can be used to investigate possible collective behaviors and inefficiencies of such a system. Despite limitations when extrapolating results from simulation runs to the real world, and several other challenges, we conclude that the utilization of agent-based models can very well aid planners and policy makers in designing more resilient cities.
Thomas Brudermann, Christian Hofer, Yoshiki Yamagata

Urban Form and Energy Resilient Strategies: A Case Study of the Manhattan Grid

The Manhattan grid is known as a testing ground of high-density urban development from the 19th century onward. Its urban form model and regulatory zoning mechanisms provide lessons for global cities in shaping their urban skylines. This chapter describes the physical form and processes that have established and characterize Manhattan’s grid, focusing on the grid as a generator and framework for growth. A performance-based urban energy model is used to examine the potential for energy self-sufficiency within the current urban form structure of the Manhattan grid. To make the city more energy resilient, a transformative approach is proposed that centers on the implementation of a performance-based model of urban design, which enhances urban resiliency at the neighborhood level. The concept of panarchy is applied to address complex systems problems such as energy resiliency in cities. To design an energy resilient urban system, it is important to define a community-level action and a medium-scale framework, which allow effective systems integration and coordination among stakeholders. The framework of urban design accommodates finer-scale, bottom-up eco-initiatives, which enable agile responses to unpredictable events, such as climate-induced disasters and environmental changes.
Perry P. J. Yang, Steven J. Quan

Disease Outbreaks: Critical Biological Factors and Control Strategies

Disease outbreaks remain a major threat to human health and welfare especially in urban areas in both developed and developing countries. A large body of theoretical work has been devoted to modeling disease emergence, and critical factors that predict outbreak occurrence and severity have been proposed. In this chapter, we focus on biological factors that underlie both theoretical models and urban planning. We describe the SARS 2002–2003 pandemic as a case study of epidemic control of a human infectious disease. We then describe theoretical analyses of disease dynamics and control strategies. An important conclusion is that epidemic control will be strongly dependent on particular aspects of pathogen biology including host breadth, virulence, incubation time, and/or mutation rate. The probability, and potential cost, of future outbreaks, may be high and lessons from both past cases and theoretical work should inform urban design and policy. Interdisciplinary collaboration in planning, swiftness of information dissemination and response, and willingness to forgo personal liberties during a crisis may be key factors in resilience to infectious disease outbreaks.
Kent Kawashima, Tomotaka Matsumoto, Hiroshi Akashi

Measuring Urban Resilience


Approaches to Measurement of Urban Resilience

Measurement is a prerequisite for systematic development. Resilience measurement approaches have been developed for assessment, planning and follow up resilience development. In this chapter I will review several different resilience assessment systems that either measure resilience performance (past incident and the urban system’s reaction in that) or resilience as competence (city’s perceived capability to adapt, recover and benefit of shocks). The methods analyzed are Rockefeller Foundations 100 resilient cities measurement framework, UN Habitat disaster measurement system, New Zeland based method, the system produced by the Strategy Alliance and the method developed in the Global X Network. None of these approaches are ‘good’ or ‘bad’ but they have been developed for a specific purpose, they have different objectives, principles, methods and data used. The analysis framework consisted of five systems theoretical dimensions: structure, interaction, coordination, renewal and resources. The analysis revealed that the approaches can be divided into three clusters; firstly survey based method that collect perceptions, second existing statistical data based methods and third multimethod approaches. One of the main conclusions was that none of these methods paid any or thorough attention on interaction between urban system components. Even if the methods try to assess resilience, the main source of adaptation—interaction dynamics—is not covered. But even if the existing resilience measurement methods have weaknesses, I think that the comparison presented in this chapter provides resilience developers a conceptual framework for assessment criteria for deciding which method they should use.
Leena Ilmola

Computational Framework of Resilience

Many researchers have been studying the resilience in urban cities. However, due to the complexity of the system involving human activities, it is difficult to define the resilience of an urban area quantitatively. We introduce an abstract model that represents an urban system through a set of variables and a utility function (or dually, a cost function) evaluating the “quality” of the states of the variables. This cost function depends on the criterion of interest for evaluating the resilience of the system, and can be easily defined in a succinct way. Then, our contribution is mainly twofold. First, we propose several performance metrics that evaluate how resilient a given system has been in some specific scenario, that is, in the past. Second, assuming we are given some knowledge about the dynamics of the system, we model its possible evolutions by embedding it into a discrete state transition machine, and show how we can adapt the performance metrics to this framework to predict the resilience of the system in the future. Such an adaptation of a performance metric to our dynamic model is called here a performance-based competency metric. This new kind of metric is useful to validate existing competency metrics (Ilmola in Competency metric of economic resilience. Urban resilience: a transformative approach. Springer, 2016) by aligning these competency metrics with our performance-based ones.
Nicolas Schwind, Kazuhiro Minami, Hiroshi Maruyama, Leena Ilmola, Katsumi Inoue

Urban Resilience Assessment: Multiple Dimensions, Criteria, and Indicators

Over the past few years, there has been a proliferation of studies that focus on enhancing resilience of cities against a multitude of man-made and natural disasters. There has also been an increase in the number of frameworks and tools developed for assessing urban resilience. As climate change advances, resilience will become an even more significant topic in the science and policy circles that influence future urban development. Resilience indicators, in particular, will be essential for helping planners and decision makers understand where their communities stand in terms of resilience and develop strategies and action plans for creating more resilient cities. This chapter draws on the extensive literature on urban resilience assessment and provides a set of principles and indicators that can be used for developing an urban resilience assessment tool. Selected indicators cover multiple dimensions of urban resilience. They are divided into five main categories, namely, materials and environmental resources, society and well-being, economy, built environment and infrastructure, and governance and institutions. It is argued that resilience indicators should be used to help planners understand how best to enhance the abilities to plan/prepare for, absorb, recover, and adapt to disruptive events. The chapter concludes with proposing a matrix to relate resilience indicators with the main underlying characteristics of urban resilience that are namely, robustness, stability, flexibility, resourcefulness, redundancy, coordination capacity, diversity, foresight capacity, independence, connectivity, collaboration, agility, adaptability, self-organization, creativity, efficiency, and equity.
Ayyoob Sharifi, Yoshiki Yamagata

Future Challenges


Bringing People Back In: Crisis Planning and Response Embedded in Social Contexts

Urban resilience requires sophisticated technical expertise to anticipate problems and develop transformative solutions, yet these efforts alone are often insufficient. We argue that resilience work needs to acknowledge the social contexts in which these plans are situated to better identify potential pitfalls and negotiate challenges “on the ground.” Drawing on Zukin and DiMaggio’s (Structures of capital: the social organization of the economy. Cambridge University, Cambridge, pp 1–36, 1990) embeddedness framework, we explain how cognitive, cultural, structural, and political contexts can complicate resilience work. First, we describe the framework and draw on extant literature to show how the four dimensions relate to urban resilience. Then, we use case studies from two environmental disasters to illustrate how emergency response efforts fell short because they did not adequately account for social context. Our aim is to orient urban resilience experts and practitioners to embeddedness thinking and offer suggestions for ways to better negotiate obstacles to success and opportunities for improvement inherent in the social environment.
Kendra Thompson-Dyck, Brian Mayer, Kathryn Freeman Anderson, Joseph Galaskiewicz

From Resilience to Transformation Via a Regenerative Sustainability Development Path

Urban resilience frameworks and strategies currently taken up in cities around the globe fall short of adequately preparing urban communities for the scale of change that many will face in coming decades. For cities aiming to address the impacts of climate change in a proactive sense as well as post-disaster, urban resilience presents itself as a useful frame, grounded in both ecological systems theory and psychological theory. This chapter tackles the question of where the notion of resilience helps, and where it holds cities back, in terms of urban planning and policy. Resilience in the urban planning and policy context may hold cities back because it lacks normative value in social and political spheres. That is, while concepts such as social justice and sustainable development suggest a normative direction for planning toward the improvement of our communities, resilience thinking does not imply any value-based criteria by which communities might determine how best to “bounce back” or “bounce forward.” Additional tools for urban resilience planning are needed, and we suggest and elaborate here upon two: the development path and regenerative sustainability. The notion of the development path originated within the IPCC process and draws upon futures studies, scenario planning and backcasting, in order to understand the social and political change and decision making implications of responding to climate change. The second concept we offer, regenerative sustainability, can be considered as the work of increasing the capacity of the current generation to give back more than we receive. The contribution of these two concepts to the value of urban resilience thinking in political contexts is explained through a discussion of five possible scenarios of urban transformation, which vary in terms of the social and political intentions at work in the strategies needed to build resilience.
Meg Holden, John Robinson, Stephen Sheppard
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