Attempts to quantitatively evaluate the level of risk associated with nuclear power plants have led to an increasing desire to assign probabilities to rare precipitation events. Because it was felt that purely statistical estimates of events with return periods greatly in excess of the period of record susceptible to potentially unacceptable levels of uncertainty, an approach that combined statistical analysis with meteorological interpretation was taken to determine a 24-hr point precipitation amount judged to be associated with a 0.001 annual exceedance probability of occurrence (1000-yr event). The paper also considers the possibility of using joint probabilities associated storm centering, depth-area reduction and storm intensity to determine the probability of average depths of precipitation over larger areas.
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- Very Low Probability Precipitation-Frequency Estimates — A Perspective
Rex G. Wescott
- Springer Netherlands