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1996 | Buch

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments

An International Handbook

herausgegeben von: Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee

Verlag: Springer Netherlands

Buchreihe : Environmental Science and Technology Library

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Über dieses Buch

The possible impacts of global climate change on different countries has led to the development and ratification of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and has a strong bearing on the future sustainable development of developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The preparation of analytical methodologies and tools for carrying out assessments of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change is therefore of prime importance to these countries. Such assessments are needed to both fulfill the reporting requirements of the countries under the FCCC as well as to prepare their own climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. The vulnerability and adaptation assessment guidelines prepared by the U.S. Country Studies Program bring together all the latest knowledge and experience from around the world on both vulnerability analysis as well as adaptation methodologies. It is currently being applied successfully by scientists in over fifty countries from all the regions of the globe. This guidance is being published to share it with the wider scientific community interested in global climate change issues. This guidance document has two primary purposes: • To assist countries in making decisions about the scope and methods for their vulnerability and adaptation assessments, • To provide countries with guidance and step-by-step instructions on each of the basic elements of vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
1. U.S. Country Studies Program
Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
Abstract
The Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on parties to the Convention to inventory national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and to develop plans for responding to climate change. To assist developing countries and countries with economies in transition to meet this obligation, the U.S. government committed $35 million to support climate change country studies. The technical and financial assistance is provided through the U.S. Country Studies Program.
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
2. Overview of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Process
Abstract
An assessment of a country’s vulnerability to climate change is an evaluation of how changes in climate may affect segments of the natural environment, elements of the national economy, and human health and welfare. Key natural resource sectors that might be susceptible to changes in climate include agricultural crops, livestock, forests, water resources, coastal resources, fisheries, and wildlife. Other sectors potentially affected include human health, energy, infrastructure, and human settlements. A vulnerability assessment consists of an analysis of the scope and severity of the potential effects of climate change. For example, a rise in temperature and an increase in rainfall may effectively lower (or raise) the yield of a country’s agricultural crops, which, in turn, may reduce (or increase) a country’s gross national product (GNP) and its economic well-being.
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
3. Defining the Scope of an Assessment
Abstract
The first step in conducting a vulnerability and adaptation assessment is to define the scope of the proposed assessment, including the problems of interest and the assessment process to be used (Figure 2.1). The objective of this scoping effort is to focus on important questions and issues and to use limited resources efficiently. The IPCC has outlined a general approach for scoping and problem definition (IPCC 1992). The IPCC outline and Carter and de Rozan (1993) make it possible to describe the steps that can be taken to determine the proper scope of an assessment. The steps are as follows:
  • Identify assessment goals,
  • Define sectors to be studied,
  • Select the study region,
  • Select the time frame,
  • Determine data needs,
  • Develop the context for assessment, and
  • Develop a schedule.
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
4. Defining and Applying Scenarios and Using GCM Data for Vulnerability Assessments
Abstract
As shown in Figure 2.1, step 2 of the vulnerability and adaptation analysis is the selection of scenarios to be used in assessing the effects of climate change. Selecting scenarios is one of the most important steps in assessing a country’s vulnerability to climate change because it affects the magnitude and the direction of results. An “extreme” scenario can yield extreme results, whereas a “mild” scenario can yield mild results. Thus, selection of scenarios should be a balanced, carefully planned decision.
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
5. Conducting Biophysical Impact and Technical Adaptation Assessments
Abstract
As shown on the vulnerability and adaptation assessment flow diagram (Figure 2.1), after the scenarios have been selected, the next step in the process is to conduct the biophysical impact and technical adaptation assessments. These assessments focus on the specific biological and physical effects that climate change may have on various sectors of the economy and the natural environment. This section describes procedures for conducting assessments on five sectors:
  • Crops,
  • Grasslands and livestock,
  • Forests,
  • Water resources, and
  • Coastal resources.
Other sectors can also be affected by climate change. Countries should feel free to expand on this list in the country study as time and resources allow.
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
6. Integration of Impact Assessment Results
Abstract
Upon completion of the biophysical impact assessments in each of the sectors, as described in Section 5, it is recommended that countries combine the results of their work into an integrated assessment of these impacts. The integration process is one of the most difficult of the analytical steps, but it is one which best provides critical context for decision makers.
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
7. Assessment of Adaptation Policy Options
Abstract
Nations participating in the Country Studies Program need to assess options for adapting to climate change because it is unlikely that climate change can be completely averted. Although measures are being taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which will probably reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change, it is unlikely that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced enough to stabilize climate. Therefore, adaptation will be necessary (IPCC 1990).
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
8. Documentation and Presentation of Results
Abstract
Many considerations will go into the documentation and presentation of the results of the vulnerability and adaptation assessments. It is not possible to prescribe a single process that will fit the needs of all countries participating in the program. Only general guidelines can be given.
Ron Benioff, Sandra Guill, Jeffrey Lee
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
herausgegeben von
Ron Benioff
Sandra Guill
Jeffrey Lee
Copyright-Jahr
1996
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Electronic ISBN
978-94-009-0303-6
Print ISBN
978-94-010-6621-1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0303-6