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Über dieses Buch

During 1978-1982 the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) was responsible for a research project on Environmental Quality Control and Management. The project was begun under the direction of Professor O. F. Vasiliev (from the Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences) and was subsequently led by myself. This review is very much a re'fiection of that IIASA project. The major themes of the IIASA project were: (i) research into the methodological aspects of modeling river and lake sys­ tems [some of the principal results of this research appear in M. B. Beck and G. van Straten (eds. ) (1983), Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality (Springer, Berlin (West)), and in K. Fedra (1983), Environmental Modeling Under Uncertainty: Monte Carlo Simulation (IIASA Research Report RR-83-28)]; (ii) case studies in the application of mathematical models to lake eutrophi­ cation control [results of which are summarized in L. Somlyody, S. Hero­ dek, and J. Fischer (eds. ) (1983), Eutrophication of Shallow Lakes: Model­ ing and Management (The Lake Balaton Case Study) (IIASA Collaborative Proceedings CP-83-S3), and in K. Fedra (1983), A Modular Approach to Comprehensive System Simulation: A Case Study of Lakes and Watersheds (in W. K. Lauenroth, G. V. Skogerboe, and M. Flug (eds. ), Analysis of Ecological Systems: State-of-the-Art in Ecological Modelling, pp. 195-204. Elsevier, Amsterdam)]; iv (iii) a policy study of operational water qua,lity management [M. B. Beck (1981), Operational Water Quality Management: Beyond Planning and Design (IIASA Executive Report ER-7)].

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

1. Introduction

Abstract
As for many other subjects, the 1960s and early 1970s were a period in which mathematical modeling became firmly associated with studies in the science and management of water quality. It was (presumably) an exhilarating time when the boundaries of what was possible, in terms of computer simulation, advanced with the ever increasing capacity and speed of the digital computer. This period of accelerating development was also characterized by the generalization and amalgamation of previously particular models for specific case studies into what might be called “all-purpose, off-the-shelf” models intended to be adaptable and applicable to any water body (e.g. Water Resources Engineers, Inc., 1973, 1975; Hydrologic Engineering Center, 1974; Park et al., 1975). The papers collected by Russell (1975) are representative of the most advanced studies conducted up to that date. But already by the late 1970s the concentration of effort on the development of large, complex simulation models — models not necessarily intended for management — had passed its zenith. Serious questions had been raised about the problem of “verifying” the models against field data (e.g. Thomann and Winfield, 1976). It was clear that what could be simulated in principle was quite incompatible with what could be observed in practice in the field. The lack of adequate field data was, and still is, a major constraint on progress in water quality modeling.
M. B. Beck

2. Approaches, Methods, and Making Predictions

Abstract
Before reviewing the development and application of water quality models it is helpful to describe their context by classifying the historical development of water pollution problems themselves.
M. B. Beck

3. Pollution Problems and the Application of Models for Management

Abstract
It is all very well for the purist to talk in rigorous scientific terms about uncertainty and the limits to the predictive capabilities of current water quality models. But he who has little confidence in the predictions of his model may jeopardize his case in providing advice for the resolution of issues of management. Does it not merely confuse the issues to give advice couched in the hesitancy of uncertainty? Perhaps in this instance the distinction of the two trains of development in modeling and management and the smoothing effects of their delayed interactions work to the advantage of modeling. In spite of uncertainty, broad strategies for action do emerge; indeed, there are those who would argue that these strategies are all the more robust and adaptable for having considered uncertainty (Honing, 1978).
M. B. Beck

4. An Agenda of Problems for the Future

Abstract
Past trends having been examined, there are two traditional aspects of prediction that will help define an agenda, albeit speculative, of problems for the future. For example, interpolation is a conventional way of specifying what is needed to cover any outstanding gaps in past achievements, and extrapolation suggests what would follow from the trends already established. These represent essentially “smooth” developments in a subject. For instance, the growth of interest in the problems of impounded river sections, which represent a convergence of river-like and lake-like problems, is a fairly predictable development. It is obvious that new pollution problems will emerge, but this does not mean that modeling for the purposes of solving these problems will be conducted in any radically different fashion. That is to say, the pollution problems may have different physical, chemical, and biolog­ical attributes, but it is hard to imagine that the procedure of model develop­ment would be radically different from that of Figures 6 and 7 or that the models developed would be essentially different from that of Table 1. Indeed, as with all matters of prediction, it is just as difficult (if not impossible) to speculate about significantly abrupt changes in the development of a subject as it is to predict abrupt changes in the behavior of a system.
M. B. Beck

5. Conclusions

Abstract
This review has cut across the field of water quality modeling and management in two directions: from the perspective of methodological developments (Section 2); and from the perspective of the issues of management and the evolving succession and interaction of these issues (Sections 3 and 4).
M. B. Beck

Backmatter

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