Western Balkans and the Future of Europe

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

2. United Europe: Boundaries and Challenges

   Aleksandar Stojkov, Thierry Warin

   Abstract

   This work investigates the rapidly changing dynamics of European integration, highlighting some difficulties and opportunities linked to the process of EU enlargement. It serves to provide the historical background that has led to the development of the EU, focusing on major events such as the 2004–2007 Eastern enlargement, and explores the interplay among geography, politics, and economics in shaping the boundaries of the EU. It examines the twin challenges of enlargement fatigue in EU member states and commitment fatigue in candidate countries, specifically in the Western Balkans, while assessing critically economic implications of income convergence and growth dynamics, along with governance gaps in the post-communist economies. It also assesses the transformative power of European integration to deliver stability, prosperity, and cohesion to candidate countries while emphasizing that there are persistent and emerging challenges, such as democratic backsliding and geopolitical tensions. Guided by innovative methodological approaches, the paper concludes with policy recommendations for navigating future enlargement while safeguarding and reinforcing the foundational principles of solidarity and democracy that underpin the EU.

3. The European Integration and Western Balkans: What Now?

   Ivica Bocevski

   Abstract

   Is there a real perspective for the full integration of the Western Balkans Six in the European Union, or is the accession process already dead? “Something is rotten in the state of the European integration of the Western Balkans” is not just a poetic way to describe the state of affairs regarding full accession, but a reality. The European Union, and previously the European Economic Community, was quite efficient in previous cycles of European enlargement. Virtually all the accession processes were completed within the mandate of a single European Commission once the negotiation processes had been started with the respective countries. Furthermore, in the pre-accession period, the European Union invested heavily in the removal of the “non-acquis political criteria”, which were usually linked to the democratic insufficiencies of the candidate countries. The only notable exceptions to the “rule of a single European Commission” are the Turkish enlargement and the Western Balkans Six (WB6) accession process. Given the fact that most of the WB6 countries already have the necessary legal framework in place for cooperation with the EU and that the single market is by far the largest trading partner of the region, the only logical conclusion is that there is no political will for further enlargement of the European Union, and so the accession process has ground to a halt.

4. The European Integration of the Western Balkans and Its Impact on the EU as a Geopolitical Entity

   Aleksandar Spasov

   Abstract

   In an age of intensified geopolitical competition in the world, the European Union strives to constitute itself as a geopolitical entity having a role in international relations that is beyond a common market and customs union. EU’s strategy to achieve “strategic autonomy” and political declarations on “European sovereignty” as a strategic ambition are steps in that direction. Still, the EU’s development unlike the development of nation-states is connected to a process called “EU enlargement”. The EU enlargement had undergone several phases in the last decades and now is directed towards the eastern part of the continent and towards the remaining part of the southeastern part of the continent, known as the Western Balkans. The article analyses the European integration of the Western Balkan countries through geopolitical perspective and identifies the geopolitical consequences both for the EU and the region if the current stalemate in the process continues.

5. Stagnation in Western Balkans’ Security Regionalization: The Problem of Competing Regional Cultures of Anarchy

   Ana Bojinović Fenko, Marko Kovačević

   Abstract

   The problem in Western Balkans’ unstable and growingly challenged security provision is identified by scholars and practitioners in too many actors with diverse (regional) interests and lack of local states’ ownership in the regional security regime. This chapter’s aim is to offer a more comprehensive reading of the regionalization process—defining the Western Balkans as a regional complex advancing towards regional society. Focusing on the content of security regionalism, we answer “How can we explain the stagnation of security regionalisation in the Western Balkans?” Based on the conceptual linkage between levels of regionness and culture of anarchy, we make an empirical investigation of all 40 regional security institutions in operation mapped by MIND research project. The results show that that the Western Balkan countries are currently practicing divergent cultures of anarchy, moving from Hobbesian to Lockean culture of regional anarchy and at the same time being strongly incentivized to accelerate regional dynamics towards Kantian culture. The endogenous initiatives by Western Balkan states expose countries’ interest to functionally cooperate on the basis of interdependence needs (energy, environmental security, disaster prevention, and crisis management) (strengthening Lockean culture of anarchy) but lack willingness in cooperation in security areas that demand relaxed inward orientation of states and would lead to trust and collective identity-building (elements of Kantian culture of anarchy).

6. The Future Relations Between the European Union and Albania

   Erjon Luçi

   Abstract

   Albania’s path towards European Union (EU) membership has been a lengthy and arduous journey. Despite this, public support for joining EU remains strong. The EU integration process provides Albania with a unique opportunity for boosting economic growth and accelerating income convergence, as it pushes the country to undertake a series of challenging reforms. These reforms, although demanding, are essential for fostering long-term development, ultimately helping to bridge the gap between Albania and more developed EU nations.

7. The Future Relations Between the European Union and Kosovo

   Gazmend Qorraj

   Abstract

   This paper examines the European Union’s (EU) strategy towards the Western Balkan countries, with a particular focus on Kosovo’s relationship with the EU. The analysis begins with the inception of the regional integration process through the Stability Pact, followed by various EU instruments such as Free Trade Agreements, CEFTA 2006, the Regional Economic Area, and the Common Regional Market. Highlighting the significance of Albania and North Macedonia commencing EU accession negotiations in 2022, the paper addresses the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the EU enlargement process. It also evaluates the EU’s absorption capacity and the influence of regional initiatives like the Common Regional Market and the Stabilization and Association Agreement on Kosovo’s EU integration. The concluding sections explore future challenges in Kosovo-EU relations, emphasizing the need for reforms and regional cooperation to overcome political and economic hurdles.

8. Bosnia and Herzegovina on the Way to the European Union: Past, Present, and Future

   Snježana Brkić

   Abstract

   This chapter explores the past, present, and future of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in the context of its European path. For the last 20 years, BiH has been trying to reform its economic and political system with a view of becoming a member of the European Union (EU) one day. The country’s long journey towards the EU began within the so-called EU regional approach to the countries of Southeast Europe (SEE), continued through the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) and, after acquiring candidate status, finally reached the opening of negotiations with the EU in March 2024. Thus, BiH became the last SEE country that opened negotiations with the EU—after 25 years from the beginning of the process together with others in the region. However, the latest improvements in BiH’s relations with the largest economic integration of the modern world are more caused by the current geopolitical situation in Europe than by the country’s actual achievements in political and economic reforms. In the future, this should not be the case—the ultimate goal of BiH should not be only a formal membership in the EU but reaching a level of economic and institutional development that enables full use of advantages the EU membership can bring. The challenges, both economic and non-economic, for BiH but the EU as well, are numerous.

9. The Path of North Macedonia to the European Union Is the Only Way Forward

   Fatmir Besimi

   Abstract

   This paper rigorously examines the comprehensive benefits of European integration, focusing on its profound impact on economic and social spheres. The discussion begins by emphasizing the need to revisit the integration discourse through economic, social, and geostrategic perspectives. It underscores the European Union’s foundational role as a political peace project underpinned by economic union, illustrating the significant economic benefits such as enhanced GDP per capita, trade integration, economies of scale, and financial liberalization. Furthermore, the paper juxtaposes EU pre-accession assistance with cohesion funds, highlighting the substantial financial advantages conferred by full membership. The urgency of EU enlargement is discussed, particularly in the context of the geopolitical challenges precipitated by the conflict in Ukraine. The analysis concludes with a call for structural reforms in the Western Balkans to expedite convergence with the EU, emphasizing the importance of regional connectivity, economic resilience, and sustainable development. This integration is posited as a critical pathway to fostering a prosperous future within the European framework.

10. Montenegro 2.0: The European Vision of Montenegro

    Ivan Jovetić, Ivana Vojinović, Milica Vukotić, Sandra Tinaj

    Abstract

    Political stability is inevitable for economic growth and development regardless of the EU accession. It must be followed by the economic freedom concept in order to achieve the full potential. In case of Montenegro, the concepts of micro-state, its hybrid version as well as green transition based on economic freedom are the key pillars. It also enables quite efficient and effective institutional branding if executed properly. Future perspectives of Montenegro-EU relations must include full membership till 2030 (based primarily on the geopolitical changes) the latest, stable state institutions, applied rule of law, full structural funds access, investments’ attractiveness, full foreign policy compliance, full environmental protection compliance, positioning itself as the regional economy hub (including down thresholds for any joint interval or decision among member states or divided jurisdiction), SME’s access to the market and funding sources, diversification of the economy, and company’s ability to cope with the single market pressure. In order to achieve the aforementioned, the following has to be achieved: (1) political stability, (2) economic freedom, (3) secure country, (4) environment friendly design, (5) efficient educational system, (6) effective rule of law, (7) entrepreneurial culture, and (8) Montenegro as the EU member state. Existence of functional and efficient institutions based on market economy principles, functional education system, and implemented EU negotiation process criteria based on the vision of micro and green Montenegro are the (pre)condition for making the respective viable at all.

11. The Future of Serbia’s Relations with the European Union

    Stevan Gajić

    Abstract

    The prolonged EU accession process faced by Serbia has been primarily hindered by a significant misunderstanding of the European Union’s nature by the Serbian political elite. Many leaders failed to grasp that the EU project has always been a geopolitical extension of the United States, aimed at maintaining dominance over Europe. This misperception has influenced the EU’s political stance towards Serbia, mirroring Washington’s approach. The breakup of Yugoslavia, influenced heavily by Western intervention, left Serbia, seen as a geopolitical obstacle due to its Orthodox Christian identity and historical ties to Slavic and Byzantine civilizations, in a complex political position. This paper explores the historical context, the dynamics of Serbia’s EU relations post-Yugoslavia, and the future of Serbia–EU interactions, considering the changing geopolitical landscape. The analysis spans from the end of the Cold War to the present, highlighting the impact of EU policies, the influence of US geopolitics, and Serbia’s evolving stance towards European integration.

12. European Integration Prospects for Western Balkans

    Thierry Warin, Aleksandar Stojkov

    Abstract

    The further integration of the EU stands at a crossroads, characterized by increasing geopolitical complexity and internal challenges. While Western Balkan countries suffer from slow accession processes, the accelerated candidacy of Ukraine after 2022 shows how political priorities vary. Frustration mounts as leaders such as Vučić of Serbia express their frustration over delays across issues, including the resolution of Serbia-Kosovo relations. Meanwhile, the EU’s target enlargement date of 2030, advanced by the European Council President Charles Michel, reflects new impetus. The Growth Plan, based on four pillars, points out economic integration, fundamental reforms, and financial aid, thus offering a strategic opportunity to the region. On the other hand, geopolitical fragmentation—epitomized by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia—makes things difficult. The integration of the Western Balkans is vital for regional stability, a decrease in emigration, and socioeconomic disparities. While EU membership offers mutual benefits, its realization requires bold reforms, enhanced governance, and adherence to democratic values. Ultimately, EU enlargement is a means and not an end—a journey to prosperity and unity.