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11.12.2023

What factors drive house prices in the USA? Sign restricted VAR approach

verfasst von: Jinwoong Lee

Erschienen in: Empirical Economics | Ausgabe 6/2024

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Abstract

This study explores house price fluctuations in the USA and shed light on which factor is the main contributor driving house prices. In order to decompose the changes in house prices, structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions for the US housing market is applied. In addition to including housing market-based fundamental variables such as the number of housing permits, housing rent prices, house prices, a measure of credit conditions, and the housing sentiment index are also included to distinguish four different shocks, namely housing supply shocks, shocks to the housing service demand, credit shocks, and speculative demand shocks. Empirical findings show that the main contributors to house price fluctuations are credit shocks and housing supply shocks in the long-run. In addition, while housing supply and credit conditions are the most important contributors during the boom, the contributions of credit conditions and speculative demand become larger after the boom. In fact, credit conditions are the largest contributor during the post-boom period.

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Fußnoten
1
There are several countries with higher house prices, including the UK, US, France, Australia, Canada and Sweden. House price movements in the UK have had a similar pattern to the US since the 2000s. In fact, UK real house price index showed a higher level than those of the USA. However, as the US housing market have had a distinguished cycle that increased sharply and largely dropped, this paper attempts to focus on the US housing market in terms of representativeness of the boom-bust cycle to investigate the key drivers of house price fluctuations.
 
2
There are few studies that find the key drivers of house price fluctuations in the USA by employing structural VAR with sign restrictions, except for Jarociński and Smets (2008); Towbin and Weber (2015) and Gupta et al. (2023).
 
3
Lambertini et al. (2013) use the fraction of the respondents who expect future house prices to rise as a measure of housing sentiment from the Survey of Consumer. Similarly, Ling et al. (2015) use the percentage of respondents who think it is good time to buy a house due to an increase in future house prices.
 
4
There are approximately 141,241,000 units of houses in the USA based on the end of 2020.
 
5
Kishor (2023) emphasizes the ability of housing supply indicators to explain house price movements in the USA after the financial crisis, showing that there is significant improvement of forecasting performance of house price fluctuations. In contrast, many previous studies use the residential investment as a proxy for housing supply (Musso et al. 2011; Lambertini et al. 2013; Ling et al. 2015; Towbin and Weber 2015).
 
6
The data are available at https://​www.​census.​gov/​construction/​nrc/​index.​html. In later, I examine whether the results are robust to the choice of the number of housing permits as a measure of housing supply.
 
7
The data for an index for owners’ equivalent rent can be found at https://​www.​bls.​gov/​cpi/​data.​htm/​.
 
8
There are no significant differences in trend between the two indices. Case and Shiller US National Home Price Index is available at https://​www.​spglobal.​com/​spdji/​en/​indices/​indicators/​sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/​.
 
9
Weekly data for the 30-Year fixed rate mortgage are provided at https://​www.​freddiemac.​com/​pmms.
 
10
A total index of industrial production that is sourced from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is used. The data can be found at https://​www.​federalreserve.​gov/​releases/​g17/​.
 
11
For more detail, see Bork et al. (2020).
 
12
All responses in the contents of Table 42 from Survey of Consumers are used to compute housing sentiment index. Table 42 contains the 15 responses of the “Reasons for Opinions About House Buying Conditions.” Among them, 11 responses used in this study are following: “Good time to buy: prices are low,” “Good time to buy: Prices will increase,” “Good time to buy: Interest rate are low,” “Good time to buy: Borrow in advance of rising interest rate,” “Good time to buy: Good investment,” “Good time to buy: Times are good,” “Bad time to buy: Prices are high,” “Bad time to buy: Interest rate are high,” “Bad time to buy: Can’t afford,” “Bad time to buy: Uncertain future,” “Bad time to buy: Bad investment.”
 
13
The estimated index of housing sentiment can be available upon request.
 
14
Note that the definition of speculative demand for housing in this context is that buying properties depends on expected future prices of housing.
 
15
Towbin and Weber (2015) find the main drivers of house price changes in the USA by employing structural VAR with a set of identifying restrictions to disentangle four different shocks.
 
16
In this study, I do not restrict on what overall economic condition responds to four different shocks.
 
17
Let \(B, \Sigma _{u}\) denote be reduced-form coefficient matrix and variance-covariance, respectively. With diffuse prior, \(B \sim N(B_\mathrm{{{OLS}}}, \Sigma _\mathrm{{{OLS}}})\) and \(\Sigma _{u} \sim IW(\Sigma _\mathrm{{{OLS}}}, T)\) where T is the number of observations.
 
18
For more detail, See Rubio-Ramírez et al. (2010); Kilian and Murphy (2014).
 
19
I found no significant difference even with more simulations than mentioned above.
 
20
As discussed in the literature (Fry and Pagan 2011; Inoue and Kilian 2013; Baumeister and Hamilton 2015), it could be insufficient to use impulse responses with pointwise median of posterior distribution for the set-identified VAR model, and there is a limitation that the estimation results have identification problem. Nevertheless, I use pointwise posterior median of the impulse responses, which is commonly used as a measure of Bayesian VAR estimation. As a result of comparing with the posterior mean of the impulse responses to see how different the median responses are, there are no significant difference between the two measures.
 
21
Note that there also exists shares of residuals which cannot be explained by the model.
 
22
Case-Shiller Home Price Index peaked in 2006M3 and hit a low in 2012M2 (refer to Fig. 1).
 
23
Because of home building cost including lands and regulatory cost, housing supply shortage is considered as one of the main factors affecting the changes in house prices since the 2010s (Khater et al. 2018, 2021).
 
24
As shown in Fig. 6, the net percentage of US banks easing standards for mortgage fell dramatically since 2006, which means the dampening in credit supply and credit demand.
 
25
In Fig. 5, supply of houses, which is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold, soared sharply from the mid-2000s.
 
26
The data are also available at US Census Bureau.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
What factors drive house prices in the USA? Sign restricted VAR approach
verfasst von
Jinwoong Lee
Publikationsdatum
11.12.2023
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Empirical Economics / Ausgabe 6/2024
Print ISSN: 0377-7332
Elektronische ISSN: 1435-8921
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02533-4

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