Skip to main content

2013 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. What if a Laki-Style Eruption were to Happen Tomorrow?

verfasst von : Anja Schmidt

Erschienen in: Modelling Tropospheric Volcanic Aerosol

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Historical records show that the 1783-1784 AD Laki eruption caused severe environmental stress and posed a health hazard far beyond the borders of Iceland. Given the reasonable likelihood of a recurrence of such a ‘low-probability, high-impact’ event it is important to assess the scale on which a future eruption could impact society. For this chapter, GLOMAP-mode has been used to explore the potential impact of a future Laki-style eruption on air pollution and mortality in Europe.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Baxter P (2000) Impacts of eruptions on human health. In: Stix J, Sigurdsson BF, Houghton SR (ed). Academic Press, Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, McNutt H Rymer, pp 1035–1043 Baxter P (2000) Impacts of eruptions on human health. In: Stix J, Sigurdsson BF, Houghton SR (ed). Academic Press, Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, McNutt H Rymer, pp 1035–1043
Zurück zum Zitat Brook RD, Rajagopalan S, Pope I CA, Brook JR, Bhatnagar A, Diezroux AV, Holguin F, Hong Y, Luepker RV, Mittleman MA, Peters A, Siscovick D, Smith J, Sidney C, Whitsel L, Kaufman JD. On Behalf of the American Heart Association Council on Epidemiology, Prevention, C.O.T.K.I.C.D., Council on Nutrition, P.A. & Metabolism (2010) Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the american heart association. Circulation 121:2331–2378 Brook RD, Rajagopalan S, Pope I CA, Brook JR, Bhatnagar A, Diezroux AV, Holguin F, Hong Y, Luepker RV, Mittleman MA, Peters A, Siscovick D, Smith J, Sidney C, Whitsel L, Kaufman JD. On Behalf of the American Heart Association Council on Epidemiology, Prevention, C.O.T.K.I.C.D., Council on Nutrition, P.A. & Metabolism (2010) Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the american heart association. Circulation 121:2331–2378
Zurück zum Zitat Barrie LA, Yi Y, Leaitch WR, Lohmann U, Kasibhatla P, Roelofs GJ, Wilson J, McGovern F, Benkovitz C, MalliaRes MA, Law K, Prospero J, Kritz M, Bergmann D, Bridgeman C, Chin M, Christensen J, Easter R, Feichter J, Land C, Jeuken A, Kjellstrãüm E, Koch D & Rasch P (2001) A comparison of large-scale atmospheric sulphate aerosol models (COSAM): overview and highlights. Tellus B 53:615–645, ISSN: 1600–0889 Barrie LA, Yi Y, Leaitch WR, Lohmann U, Kasibhatla P, Roelofs GJ, Wilson J, McGovern F, Benkovitz C, MalliaRes MA, Law K, Prospero J, Kritz M, Bergmann D, Bridgeman C, Chin M, Christensen J, Easter R, Feichter J, Land C, Jeuken A, Kjellstrãüm E, Koch D & Rasch P (2001) A comparison of large-scale atmospheric sulphate aerosol models (COSAM): overview and highlights. Tellus B 53:615–645, ISSN: 1600–0889
Zurück zum Zitat Cohen AJ, Anderson HR, Ostro B, Pandey KD, Krzyzanowski M, Künzli N, Gutschmidt K, Pope III AC, Romieu I, Samet JM & Smith KR (2004) Urban air pollution. In M. Ezzati, A.D. Lopez, A. Rodgers & C.J.L. Murray, eds., Comparative Quantification of Health Risks, Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors, vol. 2, Chap. 17. World Health Organization, Geneva Cohen AJ, Anderson HR, Ostro B, Pandey KD, Krzyzanowski M, Künzli N, Gutschmidt K, Pope III AC, Romieu I, Samet JM & Smith KR (2004) Urban air pollution. In M. Ezzati, A.D. Lopez, A. Rodgers & C.J.L. Murray, eds., Comparative Quantification of Health Risks, Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors, vol. 2, Chap. 17. World Health Organization, Geneva
Zurück zum Zitat Delmelle P, Stix J, Baxter P, Garcia-Alvarez J, Barquero J (2002) Atmospheric dispersion, environmental effects and potential health hazard associated with the low-altitude gas plume of Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. Bull Volcanol 64:423–434. doi:10.1007/s00445-002-0221-6 CrossRef Delmelle P, Stix J, Baxter P, Garcia-Alvarez J, Barquero J (2002) Atmospheric dispersion, environmental effects and potential health hazard associated with the low-altitude gas plume of Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. Bull Volcanol 64:423–434. doi:10.​1007/​s00445-002-0221-6 CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Durand M, Grattan J (1999) Extensive respiratory health effects of volcanogenic dry fog in 1783 inferred from european documentary sources. Environ Geochem Health 21:371–376. doi:10.1023/A:1006700921208 Durand M, Grattan J (1999) Extensive respiratory health effects of volcanogenic dry fog in 1783 inferred from european documentary sources. Environ Geochem Health 21:371–376. doi:10.​1023/​A:​1006700921208
Zurück zum Zitat Durand M, Grattan J (2001) Effects of volcanic air pollution on health. Lancet 357:164–164 Durand M, Grattan J (2001) Effects of volcanic air pollution on health. Lancet 357:164–164
Zurück zum Zitat EM-DAT (2010). The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. www.emdat.be. Accessed 13 Dec 2010 EM-DAT (2010). The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. www.emdat.be. Accessed 13 Dec 2010
Zurück zum Zitat Franklin M, Zeka A, Schwartz J (2007) Association between PM2.5 and all-cause and specific-cause mortality in 27 US communities. J Expos Sci Environ Epidemiol 17:279–287CrossRef Franklin M, Zeka A, Schwartz J (2007) Association between PM2.5 and all-cause and specific-cause mortality in 27 US communities. J Expos Sci Environ Epidemiol 17:279–287CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Grattan J (2005) Pollution and paradigms: lessons from Icelandic volcanism for continental flood basalt studies. Lithos 79:343–353CrossRef Grattan J (2005) Pollution and paradigms: lessons from Icelandic volcanism for continental flood basalt studies. Lithos 79:343–353CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Grattan JP, Pyatt FB (1994) Acid damage to vegetation following the Laki Fissure Eruption in 1783—an historical review. Sci Total Environ 151:241–247 Grattan JP, Pyatt FB (1994) Acid damage to vegetation following the Laki Fissure Eruption in 1783—an historical review. Sci Total Environ 151:241–247
Zurück zum Zitat Grattan J (1998) The distal impact of Icelandic volcanic gases and aerosols in Europe: a review of the 1783 Laki Fissure eruption and environmental vulnerability in the late 20th century. Engineering Geology Special Publications, vol 15. Geological Society, London, pp 97–103 Grattan J (1998) The distal impact of Icelandic volcanic gases and aerosols in Europe: a review of the 1783 Laki Fissure eruption and environmental vulnerability in the late 20th century. Engineering Geology Special Publications, vol 15. Geological Society, London, pp 97–103
Zurück zum Zitat Grattan J, Durand M, Taylor S (2003) Illness and elevated human mortality in Europe coincident with the Laki Fissure eruption. Volcanic Degassing. In: Oppenheimer C, Pyle DM, Barclay J (eds) Special Publications, vol 213. Geological Society, London, pp 401–414 Grattan J, Durand M, Taylor S (2003) Illness and elevated human mortality in Europe coincident with the Laki Fissure eruption. Volcanic Degassing. In: Oppenheimer C, Pyle DM, Barclay J (eds) Special Publications, vol 213. Geological Society, London, pp 401–414
Zurück zum Zitat Hansell A, Oppenheimer C (2004) Health hazards from volcanic gases: a systematic literature review. Arch Environ Health 59:628–639 Hansell A, Oppenheimer C (2004) Health hazards from volcanic gases: a systematic literature review. Arch Environ Health 59:628–639
Zurück zum Zitat Klein Goldewijk K, Beusen A, Janssen P (2010) Long term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way, HYDE 3.1. The Holocene 20:565–573 Klein Goldewijk K, Beusen A, Janssen P (2010) Long term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way, HYDE 3.1. The Holocene 20:565–573
Zurück zum Zitat Klemm R, Mason R (2003) Replication of reanalysis of Harvard six-city mortality study. In Revised Analyses of Time-Series of Air Pollution and Health, Health Effects Institute, Boston, Massachusetts Klemm R, Mason R (2003) Replication of reanalysis of Harvard six-city mortality study. In Revised Analyses of Time-Series of Air Pollution and Health, Health Effects Institute, Boston, Massachusetts
Zurück zum Zitat Mann GW, Carslaw KS, Spracklen DV, Ridley DA, Manktelow PT, Chipperfield MP, Pickering SJ, Johnson CE (2010) Description and evaluation of GLOMAP-mode: a modal global aerosol microphysics model for the UKCA composition-climate model. Geosci Model Dev 3:519–551CrossRef Mann GW, Carslaw KS, Spracklen DV, Ridley DA, Manktelow PT, Chipperfield MP, Pickering SJ, Johnson CE (2010) Description and evaluation of GLOMAP-mode: a modal global aerosol microphysics model for the UKCA composition-climate model. Geosci Model Dev 3:519–551CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mathers C, Fat DM, Boerma JT, Organization WH (eds) (2008) The global burden of disease: 2004 update. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Mathers C, Fat DM, Boerma JT, Organization WH (eds) (2008) The global burden of disease: 2004 update. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Zurück zum Zitat Molinari NAM, Ortega-Sanchez IR, Messonnier ML, Thompson WW, Wortley PM, Weintraub E, Bridges CB (2007) The annual impact of seasonal influenza in the US: Measuring disease burden and costs. Vaccine 25:5086–5096. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.03.046 Molinari NAM, Ortega-Sanchez IR, Messonnier ML, Thompson WW, Wortley PM, Weintraub E, Bridges CB (2007) The annual impact of seasonal influenza in the US: Measuring disease burden and costs. Vaccine 25:5086–5096. doi:10.​1016/​j.​vaccine.​2007.​03.​046
Zurück zum Zitat Ostro B (1984) A search for a threshold in the relationship of air-pollution to mortality—a reanalysis of data on London winters. Environ Health Perspect 58:397–399 Ostro B (1984) A search for a threshold in the relationship of air-pollution to mortality—a reanalysis of data on London winters. Environ Health Perspect 58:397–399
Zurück zum Zitat Ostro B (2004) Outdoor air pollution: assessing the environmental burden of disease at national and local levels. World Health Organization, Geneva, WHO Environmental Burden of Disease Series, No 5 Ostro B (2004) Outdoor air pollution: assessing the environmental burden of disease at national and local levels. World Health Organization, Geneva, WHO Environmental Burden of Disease Series, No 5
Zurück zum Zitat Ostro B, Broadwin R, Green S, Feng WY, & Lipsett M (2006). Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality in Nine California Counties: Results from CALFINE. Environ Health Perspect 114:29–33 Ostro B, Broadwin R, Green S, Feng WY, & Lipsett M (2006). Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality in Nine California Counties: Results from CALFINE. Environ Health Perspect 114:29–33
Zurück zum Zitat Puett RC, Schwartz J, Hart JE, Yanosky JD, Speizer FE, Suh H, Paciorek CJ, Neas LM, Laden F (2008) Chronic particulate exposure, mortality, and coronary heart disease in the Nurses’ health study. Am J Epidemiol 168:1161–1168 Puett RC, Schwartz J, Hart JE, Yanosky JD, Speizer FE, Suh H, Paciorek CJ, Neas LM, Laden F (2008) Chronic particulate exposure, mortality, and coronary heart disease in the Nurses’ health study. Am J Epidemiol 168:1161–1168
Zurück zum Zitat Pope I, Arden C (2006) Ischemic heart disease events triggered by short-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. Circulation 114:2443–2448 Pope I, Arden C (2006) Ischemic heart disease events triggered by short-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. Circulation 114:2443–2448
Zurück zum Zitat Pope CA, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K, Thurston GD (2002) Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. Jama-J Am Med Assoc 287:1132–1141 Pope CA, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K, Thurston GD (2002) Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. Jama-J Am Med Assoc 287:1132–1141
Zurück zum Zitat Schmidt A, Ostro B, Carslaw KS, Wilson M, Thordarson T, Mann GW, Simmons AJ (2011) Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption. Proc Nat Acad Sci 108:15710–15715 Schmidt A, Ostro B, Carslaw KS, Wilson M, Thordarson T, Mann GW, Simmons AJ (2011) Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption. Proc Nat Acad Sci 108:15710–15715
Zurück zum Zitat Thordarson T, Self S (2003) Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment. J Geophys Res-Atmospheres 108(D1):4011. doi:10.1029/2001JD002042 Thordarson T, Self S (2003) Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment. J Geophys Res-Atmospheres 108(D1):4011. doi:10.​1029/​2001JD002042
Zurück zum Zitat Thordarson T, Larsen G (2007) Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types, eruption styles and eruptive history. J Geodyn 43:118–152 Thordarson T, Larsen G (2007) Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types, eruption styles and eruptive history. J Geodyn 43:118–152
Zurück zum Zitat Thordarson T, Self S (1993) The Laki (Skaftar Fires) and Grimsvatn eruptions in 1783–1785. Bull Volcanol 55:233–263 Thordarson T, Self S (1993) The Laki (Skaftar Fires) and Grimsvatn eruptions in 1783–1785. Bull Volcanol 55:233–263
Zurück zum Zitat Thordarson T, Self S, Oskarsson N, Hulsebosch T (1996) Sulfur, chlorine, and fluorine degassing and atmospheric loading by the 1783–1784 ad Laki (Skaftar fires) eruption in Iceland. Bull Volcanol 58:205–225 Thordarson T, Self S, Oskarsson N, Hulsebosch T (1996) Sulfur, chlorine, and fluorine degassing and atmospheric loading by the 1783–1784 ad Laki (Skaftar fires) eruption in Iceland. Bull Volcanol 58:205–225
Zurück zum Zitat U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides—Health Criteria (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/047F U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides—Health Criteria (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/047F
Zurück zum Zitat Wrigley EA, Schofield RS (1989) The population history of England 1541–1871: a reconstruction. Cambridge Univ. Press, p 794 Wrigley EA, Schofield RS (1989) The population history of England 1541–1871: a reconstruction. Cambridge Univ. Press, p 794
Zurück zum Zitat Wong CM, Vichit-Vadakan N, Kan H, Qian Z, Teams TPP (2008) Public health and air pollution in Asia (PAPA): a multicity study of short-term effects of air pollution on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 116:1195–1202 Wong CM, Vichit-Vadakan N, Kan H, Qian Z, Teams TPP (2008) Public health and air pollution in Asia (PAPA): a multicity study of short-term effects of air pollution on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 116:1195–1202
Zurück zum Zitat Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2009) The effect of fine and coarse particulate air pollution on mortality: A national analysis. Environ Health Perspect, p 117 Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2009) The effect of fine and coarse particulate air pollution on mortality: A national analysis. Environ Health Perspect, p 117
Metadaten
Titel
What if a Laki-Style Eruption were to Happen Tomorrow?
verfasst von
Anja Schmidt
Copyright-Jahr
2013
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34839-6_6