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Erschienen in:
The Chinese Birdcage Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

12. What Lies Ahead?

verfasst von : Heleen Mees

Erschienen in: The Chinese Birdcage

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan US

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Abstract

The birdcage economy that Zhao Ziyang so abhorred has served China well. By ignoring much of the Washington consensus, China has been able to avoid the pitfalls that other communist countries encountered after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Deng Xiaoping’s call to let some people get rich first has created an economic growth model that can feed on itself. China went through the industrial revolution in the time it takes to change a light bulb and it may master the robot revolution just as quickly. For rich countries, the redistribution of income from capital to labor is most urgent. Rather than the infinite concentration of wealth in the hands of a few, the Western world seems to teeter on the brink of a revolution.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Piketty Piketty Thomas Reconsidered
Fußnoten
1
Gustav Ranis, “Arthur Lewis’ Contribution to Development Thinking and Policy,” 2004.
 
2
In order to reflect China’s transition from a Soviet-style planned economy to a socialist market economy, the name of the 11th Five-Year Plan was changed to ‘guideline.’
 
3
Sebastian Heilmann, Policy Experimentation in China’s Economic Rise, 2007.
 
4
Gavyn Davies, “Is China the new Japan? Financial Times blog, November 16, 2015.
 
5
International Monetary Fund, WEO Database, October 2015.
 
6
Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin, “Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle Income Trap, NBER Working Paper No. 18673, 2013.
 
7
“China migration: Delivering the Jack Ma economy,” The Financial Times, September 16, 2015.
 
8
Schell, 1984.
 
9
“9 in 10 families own their homes,” Xinhuanet, July 20, 2013.
 
10
After Apple CFO Luca Maestri assured investors in a conference call on July 21, 2015, that looking at the macro conditions in China, they couldn’t be more positive, Apple shares lost 10 percent of their market value.
 
11
In the USA, 55 percent of households are invested in the stock market according to a Gallup poll in April 2015.
 
12
“Myth of China’s retail investors understates large players’ role,” The Financial Times, July 13, 2015.
 
13
Schell, 1984.
 
14
In 2014, after an absence of 18 months, I told Louis Kuijs that it felt as if the Chinese had taken over Beijing, meaning they were much frequenting places where normally mostly foreigners would go. He agreed that the Chinese spend much more money on services, and hence, were much more visible.
 
15
China National Bureau of Statistics.
 
16
China’s box office receipts jumped nearly 50 percent between 2014 and 2015.
 
17
There is a lot of anxiety, though, among the Chinese upper middle class that they may lose it all. This is not surprising in light of China’s recent history.
 
18
In the second half of the nineties, labor’s share of GDP did stage a notable, albeit short-lived, comeback in spite of the policy changes and the rise in the female labor participation rate.
 
19
“Live for ever: Scientists say they’ll soon extend life ‘well beyond 120,’” The Guardian, January 11, 2015.
 
20
Claudio Borio, Enisse Kharroubi, Christian Upper and Fabrizio Zampolli, “Labor reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences,” BIS Working Papers No 534, 2015.
 
21
Obtaining the capitalist surplus of foreign, resource-rich nations will no doubt run into insurmountable diplomatic obstacles.
 
22
Paul Krugman, “Destructive Long-Termism,” The New York Times blog, December 28, 2015.
 
23
Paul Krugman, “Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation,” The New York Times blog, September 25, 2013.
 
24
The drop in the labor force participation rate may be an indication of that.
 
25
“An Elder Challenges Outsourcing’s Orthodoxy,” The New York Times, September 9, 2004
 
26
To most Europeans, these kinds of measures seem obvious, but in the USA, there is no federal paid maternity leave or sick leave. European countries may use the taxes collected from corporations and high-earners to lower the tax burden on labor.
 
27
Martin Wolf, “Corporate surpluses are contributing to the savings glut,” The Financial Times, November 17, 2015.
 
28
Gabriel Zucman, “Taxing across Borders: Tracking Personal Wealth and Corporate Profits,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 28, Number 4, Pages 121–148, 2014.
 
29
The rollback of the Bush tax cuts, which raised the top income tax rate from 35 to 39 percent, was sufficient reason for some Americans to rescind their US passport.
 
30
Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, and Emmanuel Saez, “The Top 1 Percent in International and Historical Perspective,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(3): 3–20, 2013.
 
31
The interest rate convergence associated with the introduction of the euro, which sparked the housing bubbles in the euro area’s periphery, is in principle a one-time event.
 
Metadaten
Titel
What Lies Ahead?
verfasst von
Heleen Mees
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Buch
The Chinese Birdcage

Print ISBN: 978-1-137-58888-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-1-137-58886-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58886-9_12