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Erschienen in:
2012 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
What Will Happen if We Fail?
verfasst von : Mats R. Larsson
Erschienen in: The Business of Global Energy Transformation
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK
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The consequences of a reduced supply of fuel for transportation are relatively straightforward and can be understood by laymen as well as experts. On a global level, economic development may seem somewhat mysterious and influenced by a number of unpredictable forces that are hard to identify and describe. In order to handle the complexity of large-scale economic environments economists have developed the method of changing one parameter at a time, keeping the others constant. The term used to describe this method is “ceteris paribus,” a Latin expression which means that everything else is kept constant. In order to understand the consequences of decreasing fuel supplies we need to develop a framework for analysis in which other factors are kept constant. Once we have understood the impact of the global peak in oil production we can estimate how large other factors might have to be in order to balance the risks of a reduced supply of oil.