Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11109-010-9113-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
A previous version of this paper was presented at the 2009 Midwest Political Science Association Annual National Conference.
Evidence for whether direct democracy positively affects turnout is mixed, which can be attributed to a theoretical ambiguity about the proper way to measure the institution. The most common measure, a count of the number of initiatives on the ballot, is incomplete, because it unrealistically assumes that all propositions have an equal impact on turnout and focuses exclusively on initiatives. These deficiencies are addressed by looking at the issue content of all ballot measures. I find that the number of social issues on the ballot, because they are highly salient, tap into existing social cleavages, help to overcome barriers to voting, and fit within a framework of expressive choice, had a positive impact on turnout for all midterm and some presidential elections since 1992. In contrast to previous findings, however, the total number of propositions on the ballot was rarely associated with an increase in turnout. I discuss the implications of these findings in the conclusion.
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten
Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:
(DOC 56 kb)11109_2010_9113_MOESM1_ESM.doc
Abramowitz, A. (2004). Terrorism, gay marriage, and incumbency: Explaining the republican victory in the 2004 presidential election. The Forum, 2, Article 3.
Barber, B. (1984). Strong democracy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Barclay, S., & Fisher, S. (2003). The states and differing impetus for divergent paths on same-sex marriage, 1990–2001. Policy Studies Journal, 31, 331–352. CrossRef
Bolce, L., & De Maio, G. (1999). The anti-Christian fundamentalist factor in contemporary politics. Public Opinion Quarterly, 63, 508–542. CrossRef
Bowler, S., & Donovan, T. (1998). Demanding choices. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Burden, B. C. (2004). An alternative account of the 2004 presidential election. The Forum, 2, Article 2.
Campbell, D. E. (2006). Religious “threat” in contemporary presidential elections. Journal of Politics, 68, 104–115.
Campbell, D. E., & Monson, J. Q. (2008). The religion card: Gay marriage and the 2004 presidential election. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72, 399–419. CrossRef
Carmines, E. G., & Stimson, J. A. (1980). The two faces of issue voting. American Political Science Review, 74, 78–91. CrossRef
Donovan, T., Bowler, S., McCuan, D., & Fernandez, K. (1998). Contending players and strategies: Opposition advantages in initiative campaigns. In S. Bowler, T. Donovan, & C. J. Tolbert (Eds.), Citizens as legislators: Direct democracy in the United States (pp. 80–107). Columbus: Ohio State University Press.
Donovan, T., Tolbert, C., Smith, D. A., & Parry, J. (2005). Did gay marriage elect George W. Bush? Paper presented at the 2005 state politics conference, East Lansing, MI.
Duff, B., Hanmer, M. J., Park, W.-H., & White, I. K. (2007). Good excuses: Understanding who votes with an improved turnout question. Public Opinion Quarterly, 71, 67–90. CrossRef
Dyck, J. J., & Seabrook, N. R. (2010). Mobilized by direct democracy: Short-term versus long-term effects and the geography of turnout in ballot measure elections. Social Science Quarterly, 91, 188–208. CrossRef
Gamble, B. S. (1997). Putting civil rights to a popular vote. American Journal of Political Science, 41, 245–269. CrossRef
Brennan, G., & Buchanan, J. (1984). Voter choice: Evaluating political alternatives. American Behavioral Scientist, 28, 185–201. CrossRef
Grummel, J. A. (2008). Morality politics, direct democracy, and turnout. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 8, 282–292. CrossRef
Haider-Markel, D. P., & Kaufman, M. S. (2006). Public opinion and policymaking in the culture wars: Is there a connection between opinion and state policy on gay and lesbian issues? In J. Cohen (Ed.), Public opinion in state politics (pp. 163–182). Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Haider-Markel, D. P., & Meier, K. J. (1996). The politics of gay and lesbian rights: Expanding the scope of the conflict. Journal of Politics, 58, 332–349. CrossRef
Hanmer, M. J. (2009). Discount voting: Registration reforms and their effects. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
Hanmer, M. J., & Kalkan, K. O. (2009). Behind the curve: Clarifying the best approach to calculating predicted probabilities and marginal effects from limited dependent variable models. Working paper.
Hanushek, E. A., & Jackson, J. E. (1977). Statistical methods for social scientists. New York: Academic Press.
Herron, M. C. (2000). Postestimation uncertainty in limited dependent variable models. Political Analysis, 8, 83–98.
Keele, L. (2009). An observational study of ballot initiatives and state outcomes. Working paper.
Lacey, R. J. (2005). The electoral allure of direct democracy: The effect of initiative salience on voting, 1990–96. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 5, 168–181. CrossRef
Layman, G. C. (2001). The great divide: Religious and cultural conflict in American party politics. New York: Columbia University Press.
Layman, G. C., & Carsey, T. M. (2002). Party polarization and “conflict extension” in the American electorate. American Journal of Political Science, 46, 786–802. CrossRef
March, J. G., & Olsen, J. P. (1984). The new institutionalism: Organizational factors in political life. American Political Science Review, 78, 734–749. CrossRef
Matsusaka, J. G. (2005). Direct democracy works. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19, 185–206. CrossRef
McDonald, M. P. (2004). Up, up, and away! Voter participation in the 2004 presidential election. The Forum, 2, Article 4.
Mooney, C. Z. (1999). The politics of morality policy: Symposium editor’s introduction. Policy Studies Journal, 27, 675–680. CrossRef
Mooney, C. Z. (2001). The public clash of private values: The politics of morality policy. New York: Chatham House.
Mooney, C. Z., & Lee, M.-H. (1995). Legislating morality in the American states: The case of pre-Roe abortion regulation reform. American Journal of Political Science, 39, 599–627. CrossRef
Nicholson, S. P. (2003). The political environment and ballot proposition awareness. American Journal of Political Science, 47, 403–410. CrossRef
Pateman, C. (1970). Participation and democratic theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Pelika, S. (2008). Knowing is half the battle: Political information sources and public awareness of California ballot propositions. Paper presented at the 2008 state politics and policy conference, Philadelphia, PA.
Primo, D. M., Jacobsmeier, M. L., & Milyo, J. (2007). Estimating the impact of state policies and institutions with mixed-level data. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 7, 446–459. CrossRef
Roh, J., & Haider-Markel, D. (2003). All politics is not local: National forces in state abortion initiatives. Social Science Quarterly, 84, 15–32. CrossRef
Rosenstone, S. J., & Hansen, J. M. (1993). Mobilization, participation, and democracy in America. New York: Longman.
Schlozman, D., & Yohai, I. (2008). How initiatives don’t always make citizens: Ballot initiatives in the American states, 1978–2004. Political Behavior, 30, 469–489. CrossRef
Schuessler, A. A. (2000). A logic of expressive choice. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Smith, M. A. (2001). The contingent effects of ballot initiatives and candidate races on turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 45, 700–706. CrossRef
Smith, D. A., DeSantis, M., & Kassel, J. (2006). Same-sex marriage ballot measures and the 2004 presidential election. State and Local Government Review, 38, 78–91. CrossRef
Smith, D. A., & Fridkin, D. (2008). Delegating direct democracy: Interparty legislative competition and the adoption of the initiative in the American states. American Political Science Review, 102, 333–350. CrossRef
Smith, D. A., & Tolbert, C. J. (2004). Educated by initiative: The effects of direct democracy on citizens and political organizations in the American states. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Smith, D. A., & Tolbert, C. J. (2007). The instrumental and educative effects of ballot measures: Research on direct democracy in the American states. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 7, 416–445. CrossRef
Squire, P., Wolfinger, R. E., & Glass, D. P. (1987). Residential mobility and voter turnout. American Political Science Review, 81, 45–65. CrossRef
Tatalovich, R., & Daynes, B. W. (1998). Moral controversies in American politics: Cases in social regulatory policy. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.
Tatalovich, R., Smith, A., & Bobic, M. P. (1994). Moral conflict in the policy process. Policy Currents, 4, 1–7.
Tolbert, C. J., Bowen, D. C., & Donovan, T. (2009). Initiative campaigns: Direct democracy and voter mobilization. American Politics Research, 37, 155–192. CrossRef
Tolbert, C. J., Grummel, J., & Smith, D. A. (2001). The effects of ballot initiatives on voter turnout in the American states. American Politics Research, 29, 625–648. CrossRef
Tolbert, C. J., McNeal, R. S., & Smith, D. A. (2003). Enhancing civic engagement: The effect of direct democracy on political participation and knowledge. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 3, 23–41. CrossRef
Tolbert, C. J., & Smith, D. A. (2005). The educative effects of ballot initiatives on voter turnout. American Politics Research, 33, 283–309. CrossRef
Traugott, M. W. (2004). Why election reform has failed: If you build it, will they come? In A. N. Crigler, M. R. Just, & E. J. McCaffery (Eds.), Rethinking the vote: The politics and prospects of American electoral reform (pp. 167–184). New York: Oxford University Press.
Verba, S., Schlozman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (1995). Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Wilcox, C., & Larson, C. (2006). Onward Christian soldiers? The religious right in American politics (3rd ed.). Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Witt, S. L., & McCorkle, S. (1997). Anti-gay rights: Assessing voter initiatives. Westport, CT: Praeger.
Wolfinger, R. E., & Rosenstone, S. J. (1980). Who votes?. New Haven: Yale University Press.
- When Ballot Issues Matter: Social Issue Ballot Measures and Their Impact on Turnout
Daniel R. Biggers
- Springer US
Neuer Inhalt/© Stellmach, Neuer Inhalt/© Maturus, Pluta Logo/© Pluta