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Erschienen in: The Review of International Organizations 2/2015

01.06.2015

When do international economic agreements allow countries to pay to breach?

Erschienen in: The Review of International Organizations | Ausgabe 2/2015

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Abstract

What explains how some international agreements allow countries to buy their way out of violations? In some regimes, offering to compensate affected parties renders a violation permissible; in others, compensation serves at most a provisional function, with full compliance the only satisfactory outcome. While allowing for breach-and-pay in instances where it leaves all parties better off appears optimal, institutions vary a great deal in the extent to which they tolerate such “efficient breach.” To account for this variation, we consider how the design of the agreement affects the odds of mobilization of domestic groups. We argue that when the benefits from violations accrue mainly to government itself, efficient breach does leave governments better off. Yet when governments benefit only indirectly, through the political support offered by interest groups who are the direct beneficiaries of violations, the possibility of efficient breach increases the payoffs from mobilization. In those cases, allowing for efficient breach strengthens the domestic opposition to the very liberalization pursued by the treaty. Our model predicts that international trade agreements should spurn efficient breach, while investment agreements should favor it. We test these implications by considering dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms in both regimes.

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Fußnoten
1
See, among others, Calabresi and Melamed (1972), Rosendorff and Milner (2001), Herzing (2005), Schwartz and Sykes (2002), Bello (1996), Schropp (2008).
 
2
We distinguish such provisions from renegotiation clauses, which remain seldom used.
 
3
See NAFTA Article 20.
 
4
See, e.g., the 2009 World Trade Report, the flagship publication of the WTO, titled “Trade Policy Commitments and Contingency Measures”, dedicated to reviewing the catalogue of flexibility measures in the trade regime.
 
5
An entirely rigid economic agreement, where compliance is always required, is improbable. Owing to the essentially voluntary aspect of international law, and to the “incomplete contract” nature of international agreements, no non-trivial economic agreements fall under this category.
 
6
We recognize that a full treatment of the issue would require a repeated game. The choice of efficient breach would influence the enforceability of the treaty, as in Rosendorff (2005). For simplicity, we refrain from complicating the model with an additional endogenous component.
 
7
This view is echoed by Trachtman (2003, 191), who observes that “there seems to be less political pressure in host countries to construct barriers to investment than there is to construct barriers to imports of goods and services.” These claims pertain only to the external political pressures faced by governments to breach, rather than the overall odds of observing violations.
 
8
We assume the industry cannot mobilize to affect the government’s decision over institutional design. This assumption implies that the government is sufficiently insulated during the design phase to freely use the agreement as a political instrument, a plausible assumption insofar as we believe that such insulation is the very objective of international institutions.
 
9
For simplicity, we assume the government makes the decision to breach or not only once. A more realistic formulation would allow multiple choices over compliance in a dynamic game with changing circumstances, so that the government might violate the treaty sometimes, but not in every period (Rosendorff 2005).
 
10
One counterfactual to compensated violation is a fully rigid agreement, as in Rosendorff (2005).
 
11
This assumption is not essential to the results; we could equally well assume the industry gains nothing without mobilization, as the lack of bargaining power without mobilization allows the government to expropriate all gains.
 
12
Notably, this assumption is not a feature of standard models of lobbying by special interests: conventional theories are based on the assumption that the government always benefits from political interactions with lobbies (Grossman and Helpman 1994; Maggi and Rodríguez-Clare 1998). Our model allows the industry to mobilize against the incumbent.
 
13
See Grossman and Helpman (1994), Krasner (1991), and Maggi and Rodríguez-Clare (1998).
 
14
See Staiger and Tabellini (1987), Grossman and Helpman (1994), and Maggi and Rodríguez- Clare (1998).
 
15
Minutes of Meeting held in the Centre William Rappard on 26 May 1999, WTO Document WT/DSB/M/62.
 
16
Pelc (2009) shows that compensation steadily declined, until less than 5% of safeguard invocations were compensated by the 1970s.
 
17
Agreement on Safeguards, Article 7:1. An extension may be sought, however, in which case the safeguard measure, in principle, may be in place for up to 8 years (WTO AS, Article 7:1-3). The average length, however, is two years, and thus does not enter the potential compensation period.
 
18
Contribution of Ecuador to the Improvement of the Dispute Settlement System of the WTO, 2002, TN/DS/W/9. The dispute being referred to is EC—Bananas, WTO/DS27. In the same series of talks, the EC made a similar pronouncement: “the use of suspension of trade concessions involves a cost not only for the defending party, but also for the economy of the complaining Member.” (TN/DS/W/1)
 
19
A dispute remains on the agenda of every meeting of the Dispute Settlement Body until “the issue is resolved” (Pauwelyn 2006), meaning the offensive measure is removed. For the duration of retaliation by Canada and the US against the EU over Hormone Beef, following Europe’s defiance of a 1999 WTO ruling, the EU remained in violation, despite facing $125 million in retaliatory tariffs a year. The existence of these additional duties in no way absolved it of its violation, one of the requirements of efficient breach schemes.
 
20
There is some indication that other cotton producers are also getting a share of the American transfers.
 
21
See, among others, the Proposal by Least Developing Countries Group (TN/DS/W/17, 4), and the Contribution of Ecuador to the Improvement of the Dispute Settlement System of the WTO, 2002, TN/DS/W/9.
 
22
WTO 2003 TN/DS/M/6.
 
23
See the WTO Proposal by Least Developing Countries Group (TN/DS/W/ 17, 4).
 
24
The reference case for unlawful expropriation, which in the absence of any lex specialis under a BIT, points to common law over treaty provisions as a source of law (Ripinsky and Williams 2008, 84), is the Chorzow Factory case ruled on by the PCIJ in 1928, from which the above cited classic definition of “full restitution” is taken.
 
25
The case of ICSID is not unique among investment courts, though the confidentiality of non-ICSID proceedings tends to be even more closely guarded, to a point where the very existence of a claim is often unknown. Nonetheless, the cases that do come to light support the existence of de jure and de facto efficient breach, where awards are routinely rendered, and almost always complied with. Consider the case of Telekom Malaysia against the government of Ghana. After the privatization of Ghana Telecom in 1997, Telekom Malaysia’s management of the firm became a “thorny issue” domestically, and rose in importance as an electoral issue. When President Kufuor came to power in 2001, he showed a new hostility towards Telekom Malaysia.26 Ghana eventually defaulted on a contract to sell a further 15 percent stake in Ghana Telecom to the Malaysian firm, leading to a dispute at the Hague under UNCITRAL arbitration rules. Because Ghana’s behavior during the proceedings made headlines in the Netherlands, the final settlement was disclosed, an otherwise unusual event. Ghana paid a reported $50 million to Telekom Malaysia over a two-year period, and the case was closed.
 
26
“Ghana Battles with Telekom Malaysia”, BBC report, 6 January, 2003.
 
27
Investment treaties’ recent inclusion of “stabilization clauses” may be an example of a shift in this direction. These provisions require that the host country refrain from changes in regulatory policy in investment treaties (Cotula 2008; Tienhaara 2006). The price of a regulatory shift is no longer mere compensation; the treaty now requires nothing short of compliance.
 
28
See NAFTA Article 1110(a).
 
29
As witnessed by the evolving jurisprudence on the GATT’s General Exceptions (Article XX). See for instance, Charnovitz (1991).
 
30
S.D. Myers, Inc. v. Canada, 40 I.L.M. 1408 (NAFTA/UNCITRAL 2000), cited in Salazar (2010).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
When do international economic agreements allow countries to pay to breach?
Publikationsdatum
01.06.2015
Erschienen in
The Review of International Organizations / Ausgabe 2/2015
Print ISSN: 1559-7431
Elektronische ISSN: 1559-744X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-015-9214-z

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