1 Introduction
2 Estimation strategy and data
2.1 Methodology
2.2 Data and constitutional variables
BG | PT | ||
---|---|---|---|
Presidential | Parliamentary | Not included | |
Presidential | Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Ghana, Guatemala, Honduras, Malawi, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Paraguay, El Salvador, Switzerland, Uganda, Uruguay, United States of America, Venezuela | Benin, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Cuba, Indonesia, Kenya, Liberia, Maldives, Micronesia, Nigeria, Palau, Panama, Sierra Leone, Suriname | |
Semi-presidential | Sri Lanka | Austria, Bulgaria, Comoros, Finland, France, Ireland, Iceland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Senegal, Slovak Republic, Taiwan, Ukraine | Armenia, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Croatia, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Madagascar, Macedonia, Mali, Mongolia, Mauritania, Niger, Serbia, Sao Tome and Principe, Slovenia, South Korea, Timor-Leste |
Parliamentary | Australia, Belgium, The Bahamas, Bangladesh, Belize, Barbados, Canada, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Fiji, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Mauritius, Netherlands, Norway, Nepal, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, United Kingdom | Andorra, Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Bhutan, Czechoslovakia, Dominica, Grenada, Kiribati, St. Kitts and Nevis, Lao PDR, Lebanon, St. Lucia, Liechtenstein, Marshall Islands, Moldova, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sudan, Solomon Islands, San Marino, Somalia, Tuvalu, Vanuatu | |
Not included | The Gambia, Belarus, Namibia, Russia, Zambia, Zimbabwe | Botswana, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa |
2.3 Descriptive statistics
BG | PT | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pres | Parl | Diff | Pres | Parl | Diff | |
Annual GDP growth | 1.680 | 2.342 | 0.662** | 1.782 | 2.527 | 0.745*** |
(1.131) | (1.437) | (0.012) | (1.182) | (1.284) | (0.009) | |
33 | 56 | 32 | 51 | |||
Growth volatility | 4.523 | 4.359 | − 0.164 | 3.973 | 3.668 | − 0.305 |
(2.764) | (2.351) | (0.773) | (1.465) | (1.451) | (0.358) | |
33 | 56 | 32 | 51 | |||
Inflation | 0.108 | 0.065 | − 0.044*** | 0.142 | 0.070 | − 0.072*** |
(0.076) | (0.056) | (0.004) | (0.096) | (0.054) | (0.000) | |
33 | 56 | 32 | 51 | |||
Inflation volatility | 0.106 | 0.060 | − 0.046*** | 0.133 | 0.065 | − 0.068*** |
(0.078) | (0.069) | (0.003) | (0.088) | (0.057) | (0.000) | |
33 | 56 | 32 | 51 | |||
Gini coefficient | 45.333 | 36.789 | − 8.543*** | 48.208 | 37.265 | − 10.943*** |
(7.312) | (7.410) | (0.000) | (7.523) | (5.974) | (0.000) | |
22 | 37 | 32 | 51 |
3 Forms of government and macroeconomic outcomes
3.1 Endogeneity concerns
3.1.1 Instrumental variables
PT | Rockey promulgated | Rockey elections | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BGs | BGd | PT | BGs | BGd | PT | BGs | BGd | PT | |
con81 | 0.313*** | 0.178** | 0.136** | 0.053 | 0.040 | 0.064 | − 0.123 | − 0.309*** | − 0.335*** |
(0.000) | (0.014) | (0.043) | (0.498) | (0.625) | (0.407) | (0.111) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
con5081 | − 0.055 | − 0.138** | − 0.258*** | 0.032 | 0.009 | − 0.115 | − 0.072 | − 0.205*** | − 0.237*** |
(0.420) | (0.048) | (0.000) | (0.702) | (0.918) | (0.164) | (0.354) | (0.009) | (0.002) | |
con2150 | − 0.020 | − 0.155** | − 0.127** | 0.400*** | 0.331*** | 0.325*** | 0.200 | − 0.025 | − 0.061 |
(0.763) | (0.025) | (0.050) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.017) | (0.767) | (0.479) | |
EurFrac | 0.549*** | 0.503*** | 0.472*** | 0.568*** | 0.524*** | 0.480*** | 0.531*** | 0.490*** | 0.488*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
EngFrac | − 0.770*** | − 0.806*** | − 0.799*** | − 0.767*** | − 0.766*** | − 0.739*** | − 0.774*** | − 0.813*** | − 0.835*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
Latitude | − 0.953*** | − 1.363*** | − 1.616*** | − 0.792*** | − 1.179*** | − 1.342*** | − 0.792*** | − 1.324*** | − 1.383*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
DemAge | 0.005*** | 0.005*** | 0.005*** | 0.005*** | 0.006*** | 0.005*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
FrankRom | 0.014 | 0.000 | − 0.013 | 0.034 | 0.028 | 0.007 | 0.000 | − 0.004 | − 0.036 |
(0.607) | (0.987) | (0.608) | (0.210) | (0.328) | (0.792) | (0.993) | (0.888) | (0.200) | |
R
2
| 0.580 | 0.598 | 0.660 | 0.603 | 0.612 | 0.667 | 0.562 | 0.598 | 0.618 |
F- test all | 36.289 | 39.038 | 48.537 | 38.888 | 40.422 | 50.183 | 32.840 | 38.119 | 40.407 |
F- test gov | 13.931 | 11.658 | 14.543 | 11.694 | 9.790 | 23.261 | 9.690 | 6.266 | 13.142 |
3.1.2 Heckman correction estimation
3.2 Economic growth and volatility
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pres | − 0.814*** | − 0.868*** | − 0.916*** | − 1.173*** | − 1.153*** | − 1.198*** | − 0.593** | − 0.622** | − 0.691** |
(0.001) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.037) | (0.033) | (0.042) | |
Semi-pres | 0.236 | − 0.017 | 0.151 | ||||||
(0.581) | (0.959) | (0.623) | |||||||
Maj | − 0.562* | − 0.502* | − 0.380 | − 0.094 | − 0.066 | − 0.134 | |||
(0.070) | (0.090) | (0.215) | (0.734) | (0.814) | (0.657) | ||||
InitialGDP | − 0.818*** | − 0.794*** | − 0.800*** | − 1.371*** | − 1.375*** | − 1.375*** | |||
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||||
Education | 3.850*** | 3.863*** | 2.518*** | 0.420 | 0.622 | 0.827 | |||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.015) | (0.666) | (0.536) | (0.446) | ||||
Fertility | − 0.697*** | − 0.644*** | − 0.509** | ||||||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.021) | |||||||
LifeExp | 0.055* | 0.062* | 0.046 | ||||||
(0.090) | (0.055) | (0.338) | |||||||
Openness | 0.006** | 0.006** | 0.008*** | ||||||
(0.010) | (0.015) | (0.007) | |||||||
GovtSize | − 2.653 | − 2.927 | − 4.094*** | ||||||
(0.170) | (0.144) | (0.025) | |||||||
ExRateVol | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | ||||||
(0.568) | (0.435) | (0.175) | |||||||
R
2
| 0.176 | 0.178 | 0.210 | 0.294 | 0.292 | 0.339 | 0.390 | 0.389 | 0.429 |
N
| 263 | 263 | 210 | 205 | 205 | 169 | 204 | 204 | 169 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Instrumental variables
| |||||||||
Pres | − 1.168*** | − 1.197*** | − 1.217*** | − 2.333*** | − 2.139*** | − 2.076*** | − 1.432*** | − 1.365*** | − 1.505*** |
(0.001) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.001) | |
Semi-pres | 0.305 | − 0.151 | 0.124 | ||||||
(0.330) | (0.708) | (0.676) | |||||||
Sargan-Hansen | 0.140 | 0.240 | 0.171 | 0.385 | 0.527 | 0.529 | 0.296 | 0.625 | 0.435 |
Heckman correction
| |||||||||
Pres | − 1.010*** | − 1.041*** | − 1.343*** | − 1.217*** | − 1.243*** | − 1.234*** | − 0.640*** | − 0.701*** | − 0.806*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.017) | (0.010) | (0.003) | |
Semi-pres | 0.236 | 0.093 | 0.070 | ||||||
(0.476) | (0.771) | (0.816) |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pres | 0.294 | 0.252 | 0.165 | − 0.079 | − 0.052 | − 0.246 | − 0.079 | − 0.059 | − 0.359 |
(0.409) | (0.475) | (0.584) | (0.837) | (0.893) | (0.498) | (0.823) | (0.868) | (0.318) | |
Semi-pres | 0.724* | 0.415 | 0.475 | ||||||
(0.076) | (0.354) | (0.239) | |||||||
Maj | − 0.307 | − 0.245 | − 0.568** | − 0.302 | − 0.236 | − 0.614** | |||
(0.433) | (0.520) | (0.015) | (0.413) | (0.519) | (0.010) | ||||
InitialGDP | − 0.137 | − 0.103 | − 0.196 | − 0.037 | − 0.001 | − 0.172 | |||
(0.356) | (0.467) | (0.211) | (0.830) | (0.996) | (0.329) | ||||
Openness | 0.013** | 0.013* | 0.008** | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | |||
(0.047) | (0.057) | (0.033) | (0.875) | (0.964) | (0.715) | ||||
Polity | − 0.145*** | − 0.144*** | − 0.105*** | − 0.129*** | − 0.127*** | − 0.105*** | |||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||||
OpenVol | 0.086*** | 0.088*** | 0.046* | ||||||
(0.003) | (0.002) | (0.089) | |||||||
GovtSize | 2.369 | 2.139 | − 0.411 | ||||||
(0.312) | (0.345) | (0.847) | |||||||
ExRateVol | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||||||
(0.679) | (0.644) | (0.752) | |||||||
R
2
| 0.096 | 0.096 | 0.055 | 0.161 | 0.159 | 0.145 | 0.168 | 0.170 | 0.173 |
n
| 281 | 281 | 251 | 246 | 246 | 194 | 246 | 246 | 194 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pres | 0.065*** | 0.065*** | 0.077*** | 0.029* | 0.029 | 0.034* | 0.051** | 0.052** | 0.050** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.100) | (0.102) | (0.096) | (0.017) | (0.018) | (0.028) | |
Semi-pres | 0.032** | 0.003 | 0.020 | ||||||
(0.040) | (0.858) | (0.285) | |||||||
Maj | − 0.031** | − 0.033** | − 0.050*** | − 0.054*** | − 0.055*** | − 0.078*** | |||
(0.039) | (0.031) | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.000) | ||||
InitialGDP | − 0.014** | − 0.015** | − 0.022** | − 0.024*** | − 0.024*** | − 0.027*** | |||
(0.028) | (0.022) | (0.025) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.009) | ||||
Openness | − 0.001*** | − 0.001*** | 0.000** | − 0.001** | − 0.001** | − 0.001** | |||
(0.003) | (0.003) | (0.020) | (0.026) | (0.028) | (0.025) | ||||
ExRateVol | 0.000** | 0.000* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||
(0.030) | (0.052) | (0.909) | (0.611) | (0.580) | (0.413) | ||||
CBI | − 0.095* | − 0.094* | − 0.120** | ||||||
(0.085) | (0.092) | (0.033) | |||||||
R
2
| 0.178 | 0.177 | 0.211 | 0.189 | 0.188 | 0.217 | 0.238 | 0.238 | 0.258 |
N
| 262 | 262 | 210 | 234 | 234 | 148 | 174 | 174 | 145 |
3.3 Inflation and its volatility
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Instrumental variables
| |||||||||
Pres | 0.132*** | 0.131*** | 0.090*** | 0.043 | 0.041 | 0.041 | 0.075** | 0.071** | 0.063** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.130) | (0.158) | (0.164) | (0.026) | (0.037) | (0.031) | |
Semi-pres | 0.062* | 0.011 | 0.024 | ||||||
(0.055) | (0.701) | (0.392) | |||||||
Sargan-Hansen | 0.508 | 0.501 | 0.254 | 0.107 | 0.101 | 0.121 | 0.248 | 0.276 | 0.106 |
Heckman correction
| |||||||||
Pres | 0.050*** | 0.053*** | 0.055*** | 0.029*** | 0.030* | 0.022* | 0.054*** | 0.057*** | 0.031** |
(0.002) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.070) | (0.051) | (0.064) | (0.006) | (0.001) | (0.034) | |
Semi-pres | 0.017*** | 0.000 | 0.008 | ||||||
(0.007) | (0.987) | (0.381) |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pres | 0.039*** | 0.038*** | 0.044*** | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.023* | 0.022* | 0.013 |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.198) | (0.175) | (0.369) | (0.066) | (0.075) | (0.353) | |
Semi-pres | 0.039*** | 0.019 | 0.029* | ||||||
(0.004) | (0.157) | (0.067) | |||||||
Maj | − 0.023** | − 0.020** | − 0.030*** | − 0.024** | − 0.021* | − 0.039*** | |||
(0.011) | (0.033) | (0.007) | (0.034) | (0.06) | (0.002) | ||||
InitialGDP | − 0.016*** | − 0.015*** | − 0.017** | − 0.021*** | − 0.020*** | − 0.019** | |||
(0.000) | (0.001) | (0.012) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.015) | ||||
Openness | − 0.038*** | − 0.039*** | − 0.023 | − 0.023 | − 0.027 | − 0.025 | |||
(0.002) | (0.001) | (0.100) | (0.217) | (0.142) | (0.178) | ||||
OpenVol | 0.240*** | 0.246*** | 0.106 | 0.192* | 0.207* | 0.136 | |||
(0.003) | (0.003) | (0.227) | (0.066) | (0.050) | (0.175) | ||||
ExRateVol | 0.001 | 0.001 | − 0.002 | − 0.001 | − 0.001 | − 0.002 | |||
(0.193) | (0.153) | (0.166) | (0.339) | (0.465) | (0.128) | ||||
CBI | − 0.050* | − 0.051* | − 0.072** | ||||||
(0.093) | (0.081) | (0.016) | |||||||
R
2
| 0.122 | 0.128 | 0.149 | 0.142 | 0.145 | 0.148 | 0.231 | 0.222 | 0.212 |
N
| 262 | 262 | 210 | 234 | 234 | 173 | 174 | 174 | 145 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Instrumental variables
| |||||||||
Pres | 0.072*** | 0.073*** | 0.048*** | 0.043** | 0.047*** | 0.026 | 0.056*** | 0.056*** | 0.028* |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.017) | (0.006) | (0.133) | (0.008) | (0.005) | (0.100) | |
Semi-pres | 0.043* | 0.039* | 0.037* | ||||||
(0.066) | (0.080) | (0.070) | |||||||
Sargan-Hansen | 0.134 | 0.138 | 0.150 | 0.376 | 0.407 | 0.141 | 0.345 | 0.364 | 0.137 |
Heckman correction
| |||||||||
Pres | 0.037*** | 0.038*** | 0.033*** | 0.028*** | 0.029*** | 0.021** | 0.050*** | 0.048*** | 0.025*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.012) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
Semi-pres | 0.012** | 0.013*** | 0.021** | ||||||
(0.130) | (0.000) | (0.034) |
3.4 Income inequality
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pres | 0.124*** | 0.130*** | 0.238*** | 0.164*** | 0.160*** | 0.208*** | 0.185*** | 0.182*** | 0.211*** |
(0.004) | (0.002) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
Semi-pres | − 0.011 | − 0.012 | − 0.007 | ||||||
(0.835) | (0.796) | (0.873) | |||||||
Maj | 0.077** | 0.061 | 0.023 | 0.067* | 0.056 | 0.014 | |||
(0.037) | (0.103) | (0.593) | (0.076) | (0.126) | (0.747) | ||||
GovtSize | 0.040 | 0.048 | 0.002 | 0.133 | 0.175 | 0.152 | |||
(0.200) | (0.134) | (0.960) | (0.309) | (0.188) | (0.272) | ||||
Openness | − 0.003 | 0.001 | − 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||
(0.939) | (0.971) | (0.594) | (0.995) | (0.916) | (0.275) | ||||
InitialGDP | − 0.022 | − 0.029 | 0.034 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.083* | |||
(0.560) | (0.453) | (0.408) | (0.737) | (0.788) | (0.060) | ||||
InitialGDP2 | − 0.001 | − 0.001 | − 0.004*** | − 0.002 | − 0.002 | − 0.005*** | |||
(0.437) | (0.422) | (0.008) | (0.312) | (0.300) | (0.001) | ||||
HumanCap | − 0.071* | − 0.074* | − 0.087* | ||||||
(0.081) | (0.072) | (0.091) | |||||||
Inflation | 0.007 | 0.004 | − 0.002 | ||||||
(0.942) | (0.972) | (0.978) | |||||||
R
2
| 0.125 | 0.119 | 0.182 | 0.197 | 0.200 | 0.143 | 0.302 | 0.304 | 0.182 |
N
| 269 | 269 | 246 | 209 | 209 | 167 | 192 | 192 | 164 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Instrumental variables
| |||||||||
Pres | 0.409*** | 0.402*** | 0.351*** | 0.582*** | 0.564*** | 0.420*** | 0.478*** | 0.461*** | 0.391*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
Semi-pres | 0.015 | 0.220 | 0.144 | ||||||
(0.886) | (0.112) | (0.158) | |||||||
Sargan-Hansen | 0.009 | 0.082 | 0.049 | 0.634 | 0.721 | 0.307 | 0.582 | 0.629 | 0.242 |
Heckman correction
| |||||||||
Pres | 0.191*** | 0.191*** | 0.157*** | 0.144*** | 0.204*** | 0.205*** | 0.213*** | 0.226*** | 0.214*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
Semi-pres | − 0.017 | − 0.032 | − 0.030 | ||||||
(0.726) | (0.414) | (0.431) |