Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Public Choice 1-2/2020

20.08.2019

Who seeks reelection: local fiscal restraints and political selection

verfasst von: Susana Peralta, João Pereira dos Santos

Erschienen in: Public Choice | Ausgabe 1-2/2020

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This paper analyzes the consequences of local fiscal autonomy with respect to political selection. We propose a model of political careers wherein the decisions to become candidates and to seek reelection are both endogenous. Private-sector aptitude and political ability are private information; the latter is revealed to the incumbent during her first period in office. We show that, following an unanticipated reduction in the returns from holding office, incumbents with high market ability are more likely to refrain from running for office again than their lower-ability counterparts. We test that prediction using an unexpected reduction in the upper bound of the municipal property tax rate, announced by Portugal’s prime minister in July 2008, just 15 months before the local elections. We rely on a comprehensive data set for all Portuguese mainland municipalities for the 2005 and 2009 elections, including the characteristics of the municipalities and individual mayors. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy to show that affected mayors—those who were forced to reduce the property tax rate, and thus faced a sharp tax revenue decline—are less likely to seek reelection. This effect is driven by high-professional-status incumbents.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Fußnoten
2
When it comes to local political careers, a number of papers examine the determinants of mayors’ reelection decisions, emphasizing economic drivers such as unemployment and fiscal variables, including the countries of Brazil (Sakurai and Menezes-Filho 2008), Portugal (Castro and Martins 2013a, b), France (Cassette and Farvaque 2014), Spain (Balaguer-Coll et al. 2015), and Greece (Chortareas et al. 2016).
 
3
Interestingly, papers by Ferraz and Finan (2009), Beath et al. (2016), Grossman and Baldassarri (2012), and Fisman et al. (2016) examine political selection in developing countries. Since educated people are relatively scarce in those countries, educational attainment is more likely to be a determinant of good governance. Beath et al. (2016) report that only 9% of male council members in Afghanistan have finished high school and only 17% have finished middle school, in sharp contrast to the evidence in Dal Bó et al. (2017) that the average Swedish politician spends between 12.8 and 14.5 years on formal education.
 
4
Actually, the author finds no statistical difference between the treated and comparison municipalities for all but one proxy of politician valence considered, namely, “high professional status”.
 
5
The seminal papers on seeking reelection focus on the retirement decisions of members of the US Congress, which is related to a small expected margin of victory, a fractionalized legislative process, shrill constituents and abrasive single-issue interest groups, lack of privacy, the large amount of fundraising required to conduct modern campaigns, the desire to acquire committee power, and the demise of seniority systems (Hibbing 1982; Moore and Hibbing 1992).
 
6
For a discussion of the appropriateness of using education as a proxy for a politician’s leadership qualities, see Carnes and Lupu (2016).
 
7
Our model thus reverses the assumptions in Mattozzi and Merlo (2008), where market ability has discrete support and is not known, and political ability has continuous support and is known to the individual.
 
8
A recent empirical paper uses within-party variation in close elections in the Finnish open-list proportional system to show that public employees have an information advantage over other politicians and are better able to increase spending (Hyytinen et al. 2018). Although the learning agents in that paper are public employees and not politicians per se, the evidence supports our assumption that political jobs require learning.
 
9
Mattozzi and Merlo (2008) assume that the probability of high market returns, conditional on political ability, is \(\alpha +\lambda p\).
 
10
Introducing a constant political salary does not change the qualitative nature of the results.
 
11
In a related reference, Mattozzi and Merlo (2015) discuss the role of political parties in recruiting mediocre individuals into the political market. In the decision to seek reelection, as anecdotical evidence discussed in Sect. 3 clarifies, we contend that the party’s role is limited.
 
12
Details in the “Appendix”.
 
13
Details in the “Appendix”.
 
14
A related model prediction is that the average level of education is higher in the pool of first-term mayoral candidates than in that of incumbents who seek reelection in the treated group of municipalities. However, we cannot test that prediction because of lack of data on the overall pool of candidates.
 
15
The political spectrum in municipalities is dominated by the local branches of the parties that are represented in the national parliament. From right to left, Portuguese national parties are the Popular Party (CDS-PP), the center-right Social-Democrats (PSD), the Socialists (PS), the Communist Party (PCP), and the Left Bloc (BE). In addition, lists of organized independent citizens may contest the elections.
 
16
The candidates were Isaltino Morais from Oeiras, Valentim Loureiro from Gondomar, Fátima Felgueiras from Felgueiras, and Avelino Ferreira Torres from Marco de Canavezes.
 
17
Law no. 159/99 September 1999.
 
18
The previous property tax was the Contribuição Autárquica, implemented in 1989.
 
19
The minimum (unchanged) tax is 0.4 and 0.2, respectively (cf. Law 64/2008, December).
 
21
In 2005, the Portuguese parliament issued a law limiting the number of consecutive terms to three. However, as this was not implemented retroactively, terms counts began in the 2005 local elections for all incumbents, such that the restriction became binding in 2013.
 
22
The 30 municipalities constituting the autonomous regions of Azores and Madeira are excluded owing to their different institutional backgrounds.
 
23
The official data contain missing observations for some mayoral characteristics, which we supplemented with information from the websites of several municipalities.
 
24
Bosch and Solé-Ollé (2007) find that property tax increases have a negative impact on incumbent vote share in Spanish municipalities.
 
25
This controls for potential reelection opportunism by Portuguese mayors as found by Aidt et al. (2011). Similar results were found for Germany (Galli and Rossi 2002), Russia (Akhmedov and Zhuravskaya 2004), Brazil (Sakurai and Menezes-Filho 2008), and Italy (Padovano 2012). Brender (2003) and Drazen and Eslava (2010) show that local government debt reduces reelection chances, while Cassette and Farvaque (2014) find that pre-election debt favors incumbents.
 
26
See Martins and Veiga (2014) for the impact of voter turnout on the incumbent mayor’s vote share.
 
27
Fox and Lawless (2004) find that women who share the same personal characteristics and professional credentials as men express significantly weaker levels of political ambition for holding elective office.
 
28
Some models predict that higher salaries attract better-quality individuals (with college education as proxy) to run for office (Besley 2004; Caselli and Morelli 2004), while others predict the opposite outcome (Messner and Polborn 2004; Mattozzi and Merlo 2008).
 
29
Akhmedov and Zhuravskaya (2004), in their study of opportunistic business cycles in Russian regions, measure voter awareness using education and urbanization. For Portugal, Martins and Veiga (2013) find that national and subnational economic conditions have an impact on municipal electoral outcomes.
 
30
A change in the local tax range (in their case, an increase in the lower bound) was used as a quasi-experimental setup by Lyytikäinen (2012).
 
31
Revelli (2016) also defines the treated municipalities as those facing a local tax freeze by the central government.
 
32
There are minor differences in the following observables: local corporate tax surcharge (“derrama”), abstention rate, and age dependency ratio, and rate of property tax increase. The last is a direct consequence of the treatment.
 
33
NUTS 2 areas comprise five regions in mainland Portugal (North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo, and Algarve), while the NUTS 3 level comprises 28 smaller groups of local authorities.
 
34
Bordignon et al. (2017) studies a similar reform in Italy.
 
35
It could be that mayors are discouraged from seeking reelection because they are forced to enact an unpopular measure. This is not the case in our setting, where the tax is set to decrease. For evidence that higher taxes reduce reelection prospects, see Bosch and Solé-Ollé (2007).
 
36
While the heterogeneous effect along previous occupation is motivated by the theoretical model and is the main focus of our paper, we include in the “Appendix” results of heterogeneous effects along ideology (left vs. right—Tables 12, 13) and mayor age (above and below the median age—Tables 14, 15). Neither yields significant results, which reinforces the mechanism of the outside option that our theoretical model puts forward.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Aidt, T. S., Veiga, F. J., & Veiga, L. G. (2011). Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model. Public Choice, 148(1–2), 21–44.CrossRef Aidt, T. S., Veiga, F. J., & Veiga, L. G. (2011). Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model. Public Choice, 148(1–2), 21–44.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Akhmedov, A., & Zhuravskaya, E. (2004). Opportunistic political cycles: Test in a young democracy setting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(4), 1301–1338.CrossRef Akhmedov, A., & Zhuravskaya, E. (2004). Opportunistic political cycles: Test in a young democracy setting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(4), 1301–1338.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Altonji, J. G., Elder, T. E., & Taber, C. R. (2005). Selection on observed and unobserved variables: Assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools. Journal of Political Economy, 113(1), 151–184.CrossRef Altonji, J. G., Elder, T. E., & Taber, C. R. (2005). Selection on observed and unobserved variables: Assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools. Journal of Political Economy, 113(1), 151–184.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Balaguer-Coll, M. T., Brun-Martos, M. I., Forte, A., & Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2015). Local governments’ re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach. European Journal of Political Economy, 39, 94–108.CrossRef Balaguer-Coll, M. T., Brun-Martos, M. I., Forte, A., & Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2015). Local governments’ re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach. European Journal of Political Economy, 39, 94–108.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Baltrunaite, A., Bello, P., Casarico, A., & Profeta, P. (2014). Gender quotas and the quality of politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 118, 62–74.CrossRef Baltrunaite, A., Bello, P., Casarico, A., & Profeta, P. (2014). Gender quotas and the quality of politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 118, 62–74.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Baskaran, T. (2014). Identifying local tax mimicking with administrative borders and a policy reform. Journal of Public Economics, 118, 41–51.CrossRef Baskaran, T. (2014). Identifying local tax mimicking with administrative borders and a policy reform. Journal of Public Economics, 118, 41–51.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Beath, A., Christia, F., Egorov, G., & Enikolopov, R. (2016). Electoral rules and political selection: Theory and evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan. The Review of Economic Studies, 83(3), 932–968.CrossRef Beath, A., Christia, F., Egorov, G., & Enikolopov, R. (2016). Electoral rules and political selection: Theory and evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan. The Review of Economic Studies, 83(3), 932–968.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249–275.CrossRef Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249–275.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Besley, T. (2004). Paying politicians: Theory and evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2(2–3), 193–215.CrossRef Besley, T. (2004). Paying politicians: Theory and evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2(2–3), 193–215.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Besley, T., Folke, O., Persson, T., & Rickne, J. (2017). Gender quotas and the crisis of the mediocre man: Theory and evidence from Sweden. American Economic Review, 107(8), 2204–42.CrossRef Besley, T., Folke, O., Persson, T., & Rickne, J. (2017). Gender quotas and the crisis of the mediocre man: Theory and evidence from Sweden. American Economic Review, 107(8), 2204–42.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Besley, T., Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M. (2011). Do educated leaders matter? The Economic Journal, 121(554), F205–227.CrossRef Besley, T., Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M. (2011). Do educated leaders matter? The Economic Journal, 121(554), F205–227.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bordignon, M., Gamalerio, M., & Turati, G. (2017). Manager or politician? The effect of local fiscal autonomy on political selection. New York: Mimeo.CrossRef Bordignon, M., Gamalerio, M., & Turati, G. (2017). Manager or politician? The effect of local fiscal autonomy on political selection. New York: Mimeo.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bordignon, M., Grembi, V., & Piazza, S. (2017). Who do you blame in local finance? An analysis of municipal financing in Italy. European Journal of Political Economy, 49, 146–163.CrossRef Bordignon, M., Grembi, V., & Piazza, S. (2017). Who do you blame in local finance? An analysis of municipal financing in Italy. European Journal of Political Economy, 49, 146–163.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bosch, N., & Solé-Ollé, A. (2007). Yardstick competition and the political costs of raising taxes: An empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities. International Tax and Public Finance, 14(1), 71–92.CrossRef Bosch, N., & Solé-Ollé, A. (2007). Yardstick competition and the political costs of raising taxes: An empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities. International Tax and Public Finance, 14(1), 71–92.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Brender, A. (2003). The effect of fiscal performance on local government election results in Israel: 1989–1998. Journal of Public Economics, 87(9), 2187–2205.CrossRef Brender, A. (2003). The effect of fiscal performance on local government election results in Israel: 1989–1998. Journal of Public Economics, 87(9), 2187–2205.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Brollo, F., Nannicini, T., Perotti, R., & Tabellini, G. (2013). The political resource curse. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1759–96.CrossRef Brollo, F., Nannicini, T., Perotti, R., & Tabellini, G. (2013). The political resource curse. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1759–96.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Card, D. (1999). The causal effect of education on earnings. Handbook of Labor Economics, 3, 1801–1863.CrossRef Card, D. (1999). The causal effect of education on earnings. Handbook of Labor Economics, 3, 1801–1863.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Carnes, N., & Lupu, N. (2016). What good is a college degree? Education and leader quality reconsidered. The Journal of Politics, 78(1), 35–49.CrossRef Carnes, N., & Lupu, N. (2016). What good is a college degree? Education and leader quality reconsidered. The Journal of Politics, 78(1), 35–49.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Caselli, F., & Morelli, M. (2004). Bad politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 88(3), 759–782.CrossRef Caselli, F., & Morelli, M. (2004). Bad politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 88(3), 759–782.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cassette, A., & Farvaque, E. (2014). Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities. Economics Letters, 122(2), 314–316.CrossRef Cassette, A., & Farvaque, E. (2014). Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities. Economics Letters, 122(2), 314–316.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2013a). Is there duration dependence in Portuguese local governments’ tenure? European Journal of Political Economy, 31, 26–39.CrossRef Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2013a). Is there duration dependence in Portuguese local governments’ tenure? European Journal of Political Economy, 31, 26–39.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2013b). Running for office again: Evidence from Portuguese municipal elections. Public Choice, 156(3–4), 677–702.CrossRef Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2013b). Running for office again: Evidence from Portuguese municipal elections. Public Choice, 156(3–4), 677–702.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Chortareas, G., Logothetis, V., & Papandreou, A. A. (2016). Political budget cycles and reelection prospects in Greece’s municipalities. European Journal of Political Economy, 43, 1–13.CrossRef Chortareas, G., Logothetis, V., & Papandreou, A. A. (2016). Political budget cycles and reelection prospects in Greece’s municipalities. European Journal of Political Economy, 43, 1–13.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Dal Bó, E., Finan, F., Folke, O., Persson, T., & Rickne, J. (2017). Who becomes a politician? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4), 1877–1914.CrossRef Dal Bó, E., Finan, F., Folke, O., Persson, T., & Rickne, J. (2017). Who becomes a politician? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4), 1877–1914.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Dal Bó, E., Finan, F., & Rossi, M. A. (2013). Strengthening state capabilities: The role of financial incentives in the call to public service. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(3), 1169–1218.CrossRef Dal Bó, E., Finan, F., & Rossi, M. A. (2013). Strengthening state capabilities: The role of financial incentives in the call to public service. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(3), 1169–1218.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Daniele, G. (2017). Strike one to educate one hundred: Organized crime, political selection and politicians’ ability. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 159, 650–662.CrossRef Daniele, G. (2017). Strike one to educate one hundred: Organized crime, political selection and politicians’ ability. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 159, 650–662.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Daniele, G., & Geys, B. (2015). Organised crime, institutions and political quality: Empirical evidence from Italian municipalities. The Economic Journal, 125(586), F233–F255.CrossRef Daniele, G., & Geys, B. (2015). Organised crime, institutions and political quality: Empirical evidence from Italian municipalities. The Economic Journal, 125(586), F233–F255.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Drazen, A., & Eslava, M. (2010). Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 92(1), 39–52.CrossRef Drazen, A., & Eslava, M. (2010). Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 92(1), 39–52.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ferraz, C., & Finan, F. (2009). Motivating politicians: The impacts of monetary incentives on quality and performance. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research. Ferraz, C., & Finan, F. (2009). Motivating politicians: The impacts of monetary incentives on quality and performance. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Zurück zum Zitat Fisman, R., Harmon, N. A., Kamenica, E., & Munk, I. (2015). Labor supply of politicians. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(5), 871–905.CrossRef Fisman, R., Harmon, N. A., Kamenica, E., & Munk, I. (2015). Labor supply of politicians. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(5), 871–905.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Fisman, R., Schulz, F., & Vig, V. (2016). Financial disclosure and political selection: Evidence from India. New York: Mimeo. Fisman, R., Schulz, F., & Vig, V. (2016). Financial disclosure and political selection: Evidence from India. New York: Mimeo.
Zurück zum Zitat Fonseca, M. L. D. (2016). Candid lame ducks. Technical report, CESifo Group Munich. Fonseca, M. L. D. (2016). Candid lame ducks. Technical report, CESifo Group Munich.
Zurück zum Zitat Fox, R. L., & Lawless, J. L. (2004). Entering the arena? Gender and the decision to run for office. American Journal of Political Science, 48(2), 264–280.CrossRef Fox, R. L., & Lawless, J. L. (2004). Entering the arena? Gender and the decision to run for office. American Journal of Political Science, 48(2), 264–280.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gagliarducci, S., & Nannicini, T. (2013). Do better paid politicians perform better? Disentangling incentives from selection. Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(2), 369–398.CrossRef Gagliarducci, S., & Nannicini, T. (2013). Do better paid politicians perform better? Disentangling incentives from selection. Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(2), 369–398.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gagliarducci, S., Nannicini, T., & Naticchioni, P. (2010). Moonlighting politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 94(9), 688–699.CrossRef Gagliarducci, S., Nannicini, T., & Naticchioni, P. (2010). Moonlighting politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 94(9), 688–699.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Galasso, V., & Nannicini, T. (2011). Competing on good politicians. American Political Science Review, 105(01), 79–99.CrossRef Galasso, V., & Nannicini, T. (2011). Competing on good politicians. American Political Science Review, 105(01), 79–99.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Galasso, V., & Nannicini, T. (2017). Political selection under alternative electoral rules. Public Choice, 171(3–4), 257–281.CrossRef Galasso, V., & Nannicini, T. (2017). Political selection under alternative electoral rules. Public Choice, 171(3–4), 257–281.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Galli, E., & Rossi, S. P. (2002). Political budget cycles: The case of the Western German Länder. Public Choice, 110(3–4), 283–303.CrossRef Galli, E., & Rossi, S. P. (2002). Political budget cycles: The case of the Western German Länder. Public Choice, 110(3–4), 283–303.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gamalerio, M. (2017). Fiscal rules and the selection of politicians: Evidence from Italian municipalities. New York: Mimeo. Gamalerio, M. (2017). Fiscal rules and the selection of politicians: Evidence from Italian municipalities. New York: Mimeo.
Zurück zum Zitat Grossman, G., & Baldassarri, D. (2012). The impact of elections on cooperation: Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment in Uganda. American Journal of Political Science, 56(4), 964–985.CrossRef Grossman, G., & Baldassarri, D. (2012). The impact of elections on cooperation: Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment in Uganda. American Journal of Political Science, 56(4), 964–985.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hessami, Z. (2018). Accountability and incentives of appointed and elected public officials. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(1), 51–64.CrossRef Hessami, Z. (2018). Accountability and incentives of appointed and elected public officials. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(1), 51–64.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hibbing, J. R. (1982). Voluntary retirement from the us house of representatives: Who quits? American Journal of Political Science, 26(3), 467–484.CrossRef Hibbing, J. R. (1982). Voluntary retirement from the us house of representatives: Who quits? American Journal of Political Science, 26(3), 467–484.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hyytinen, A., Meriläinen, J., Saarimaa, T., Toivanen, O., & Tukiainen, J. (2018). Public employees as politicians: Evidence from close elections. American Political Science Review, 112(1), 68–81.CrossRef Hyytinen, A., Meriläinen, J., Saarimaa, T., Toivanen, O., & Tukiainen, J. (2018). Public employees as politicians: Evidence from close elections. American Political Science Review, 112(1), 68–81.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2005). Do leaders matter? National leadership and growth since World War II. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(3), 835–864. Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2005). Do leaders matter? National leadership and growth since World War II. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(3), 835–864.
Zurück zum Zitat Kotakorpi, K., & Poutvaara, P. (2011). Pay for politicians and candidate selection: An empirical analysis. Journal of Public Economics, 95(7), 877–885.CrossRef Kotakorpi, K., & Poutvaara, P. (2011). Pay for politicians and candidate selection: An empirical analysis. Journal of Public Economics, 95(7), 877–885.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lyytikäinen, T. (2012). Tax competition among local governments: Evidence from a property tax reform in Finland. Journal of Public Economics, 96(7), 584–595.CrossRef Lyytikäinen, T. (2012). Tax competition among local governments: Evidence from a property tax reform in Finland. Journal of Public Economics, 96(7), 584–595.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Martins, R., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections. Public Choice, 155(3–4), 1–18. Martins, R., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections. Public Choice, 155(3–4), 1–18.
Zurück zum Zitat Martins, R., & Veiga, F. J. (2014). Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government? European Journal of Political Economy, 36, 274–286.CrossRef Martins, R., & Veiga, F. J. (2014). Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government? European Journal of Political Economy, 36, 274–286.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mattozzi, A., & Merlo, A. (2008). Political careers or career politicians? Journal of Public Economics, 92(3), 597–608.CrossRef Mattozzi, A., & Merlo, A. (2008). Political careers or career politicians? Journal of Public Economics, 92(3), 597–608.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mattozzi, A., & Merlo, A. (2015). Mediocracy. Journal of Public Economics, 130, 32–44.CrossRef Mattozzi, A., & Merlo, A. (2015). Mediocracy. Journal of Public Economics, 130, 32–44.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mazumder, B. (2005). Fortunate sons: New estimates of intergenerational mobility in the united states using social security earnings data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(2), 235–255.CrossRef Mazumder, B. (2005). Fortunate sons: New estimates of intergenerational mobility in the united states using social security earnings data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(2), 235–255.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Messner, M., & Polborn, M. K. (2004). Paying politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 88(12), 2423–2445.CrossRef Messner, M., & Polborn, M. K. (2004). Paying politicians. Journal of Public Economics, 88(12), 2423–2445.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Moore, M. K., & Hibbing, J. R. (1992). Is serving in congress fun again? Voluntary retirements from the house since the 1970s. American Journal of Political Science, 56, 824–828.CrossRef Moore, M. K., & Hibbing, J. R. (1992). Is serving in congress fun again? Voluntary retirements from the house since the 1970s. American Journal of Political Science, 56, 824–828.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(01), 18–34.CrossRef Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(01), 18–34.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Padovano, F. (2012). The drivers of interregional policy choices: Evidence from Italy. European Journal of Political Economy, 28(3), 324–340.CrossRef Padovano, F. (2012). The drivers of interregional policy choices: Evidence from Italy. European Journal of Political Economy, 28(3), 324–340.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Revelli, F. (2016). Tax limits and local elections. Public Choice, 166(1–2), 53–68.CrossRef Revelli, F. (2016). Tax limits and local elections. Public Choice, 166(1–2), 53–68.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sakurai, S. N., & Menezes-Filho, N. A. (2008). Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities. Public Choice, 137(1–2), 301–314.CrossRef Sakurai, S. N., & Menezes-Filho, N. A. (2008). Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities. Public Choice, 137(1–2), 301–314.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Veiga, F. J., & Veiga, L. G. (2017). Term limits and voter turnout. NIPE Working Paper Series 6 (pp. 1–37). Veiga, F. J., & Veiga, L. G. (2017). Term limits and voter turnout. NIPE Working Paper Series 6 (pp. 1–37).
Zurück zum Zitat Veiga, L. G. (2012). Determinants of the assignment of EU funds to Portuguese municipalities. Public Choice, 153(1–2), 215–233.CrossRef Veiga, L. G. (2012). Determinants of the assignment of EU funds to Portuguese municipalities. Public Choice, 153(1–2), 215–233.CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Who seeks reelection: local fiscal restraints and political selection
verfasst von
Susana Peralta
João Pereira dos Santos
Publikationsdatum
20.08.2019
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Public Choice / Ausgabe 1-2/2020
Print ISSN: 0048-5829
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7101
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00702-7

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1-2/2020

Public Choice 1-2/2020 Zur Ausgabe