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2018 | Buch

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Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting

A Numerical Approach for Complex Terrain

herausgegeben von: Dr. Richard Perez

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Green Energy and Technology

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

In addition to describing core concepts and principles, this book reveals professional methodologies and tools used by national agencies and private corporations to predict sites’ potential for wind and solar power generation. Each chapter focuses on a different issue, showing readers the corresponding methodology, as well as examples of how to apply the techniques described. These techniques are explained with step-by-step guides that demonstrate how environmental variables in complex terrains can be characterized and forecasted.The authors present an adaptive finite element mass-consistent model, which computes a diagnostic wind field in the three-dimensional area of interest using observed wind data from measurement stations – data which is then interpolated using a physical model of the wind field in the boundary layer. An ensemble method is presented based on the perturbation of the numerical weather prediction models’ results.
The book goes on to explain solar radiation characterization and forecasting. Solar radiation and electrical power generation temporal and spatial variability are discussed and modelled. Different statistical methods are presented in order to improve solar radiation forecasting using ground measurement, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) and satellite-derived data. This book is focused on both probabilistic and point forecast explaining different models and methodologies to improve the forecasting. The results obtained from various simulations around the world are presented in tables. Finally, the book explains a possible methodology to develop a Solar Map taking into account solar radiation, terrain surface conditions and cast shadows.
As such, the book provides an overview of the concepts, principles and practices involved in the treatment of environmental variables related to solar radiation or wind fields, especially when complex terrains are involved, offering useful resources for students and researchers alike. It also equips professionals with the methodologies and tools needed to construct environmental variable maps and conduct forecasting for solar radiation and wind fields.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Analysis and Characterization of Geographical and Meteorological Data

Frontmatter

Acquisition and Analysis of Meteorological Data

Abstract

Wind and solar radiation observations are required for renewable energy modeling and forecasting. High-quality ground measurements are essential for renewable energy studies. Ideal wind measurement devices should respond to slightest breezes, be strong enough to stand up high winds, give a fast and accurate answer for turbulent fluctuations, and have a linear output and a simple dynamic performance. The solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface contains several components, beam, diffuse, and reflected (albedo) radiation, as a consequence of the interaction with atmospheric particles. The instruments for measuring solar radiation are classified according to the working principle (mainly thermoelectric or photoelectric sensors) and to the component of solar radiation to be measured. Ground measurements give information about solar radiation or wind fields in a specific location. On the other hand, in many applications for the modeling and prediction of natural resources, meteorological data with a greater spatial distribution are needed. Satellite models offer meteorological data estimated from satellite images with a high spatial and temporary resolution. In the same way, Numerical Weather Predictions models give information about several meteorological variables with a great spatial resolution.

Javier Calvo Sánchez, Gema Morales Martín, Jesús Polo

Characterization of Geographical and Meteorological Parameters

Abstract

This chapter is devoted to the introduction of some geographical and meteorological information involved in the numerical modeling of wind fields and solar radiation. First, a brief description of the topographical data given by a Digital Elevation Model and Land Cover databases is provided. In particular, the Information System of Land Cover of Spain (SIOSE) is considered. The study is focused on the roughness length and the displacement height parameters that appear in the logarithmic wind profile, as well as in the albedo related to solar radiation computation. An extended literature review and characterization of both parameters are reported. Next, the concept of atmospheric stability is introduced from the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to the recent revision of Zilitinkevich of the Neutral and Stable Boundary Layers (SBL). The latter considers the effect of the free-flow static stability and baroclinicity on the turbulent transport of momentum and of the Convective Boundary Layers (CBL), more precisely, the scalars in the boundary layer, as well as the model of turbulent entrainment.

Gustavo Montero, Eduardo Rodríguez, Albert Oliver

Discretization of the Region of Interest

Abstract

The meccano method was recently introduced to construct simultaneously tetrahedral meshes and volumetric parameterizations of solids. The method requires the information of the solid geometry that is defined by its surface, a meccano, i.e., an outline of the solid defined by connected polyhedral pieces, and a tolerance that fixes the desired approximation of the solid surface. The method builds an adaptive tetrahedral mesh of the solid (physical domain) as a deformation of an appropriate tetrahedral mesh of the meccano (parametric domain). The main stages of the procedure involve an admissible mapping between the meccano and the solid boundaries, the nested Kossaczký’s refinement, and our simultaneous untangling and smoothing algorithm. In this chapter, we focus on the application of the method to build tetrahedral meshes over complex terrain, that is interesting for simulation of environmental processes. A digital elevation map of the terrain, the height of the domain, and the required orography approximation are given as input data. In addition, the geometry of buildings or stacks can be considered. In these applications, we have considered a simple cuboid as meccano.

J. Manuel Cascón , José María Escobar, Rafael Montenegro

Wind Field Diagnostic and Forecasting

Frontmatter

Wind Field Diagnostic Model

Abstract

This chapter describes Wind3D, a mass-consistent diagnostic model with an updated vertical wind profile and atmospheric parameterization. First, a description of Wind3D is provided, along with their governing equations. Next, the finite element formulation of the model and the description of the solver of the corresponding linear system are presented. The model requires an initial wind field, interpolated from data obtained in a few points of the domain. It is constructed using a logarithmic wind profile that considers the effect of both stable boundary layer (SBL) and the convective boundary layer (CBL). One important aspect of mass-consistent models is that they are quite sensitive to the values of some of their parameters. To deal with this problem, a strategy for parameter estimation based on a memetic algorithm is presented. Finally, a numerical experiment over complex terrain is presented along with some concluding remarks.

Eduardo Rodríguez, Gustavo Montero, Albert Oliver

Wind Field Deterministic Forecasting

Abstract

Regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are nowadays integrated at resolutions between 1 and 3 km. They are non-hydrostatic models, generally run with explicit deep convection. These models have achieved a significant improvement on high-impact weather simulation comparing with synoptic scale models. Modeling at these scales needs big computer resources. Wind simulations are very sensitive to different features of the model: space resolution, orography representation, surface physiography, and flux exchanges between the surface and the atmosphere. Different formulations and parameterizations are followed to take into account all these topics depending on the stability and the surface properties. This chapter offers a snapshot of how HARMONIE-AROME model deals with these issues to derive a formulation for the 10 m wind.

Javier Calvo Sánchez, Gema Morales Martín

Wind Field Probabilistic Forecasting

Abstract

Probabilistic wind forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models (NWP). In this chapter, we describe the need for ensemble forecasting, the different techniques used to generate the different initial conditions, and the operational ensemble models that are used nowadays in meteorological agencies. Then, we develop an ensemble method designed for the downscaling wind model described in Chap. 4 coupled with the AROME–HARMONIE mesoscale model, a non-hydrostatic dynamic forecast model described in Chap. 5. As we have explained in Chap. 4, some parameters need to be estimated since we do not know its exact value. These parameters are, basically, the roughness length and the zero plane displacement (explained in Chap. 2), as well as the Gauss moduli parameter (\(\alpha \)) used in the diagnostic wind model. This estimation is the main source of uncertainties in the model; therefore we will estimate some of these parameters using different forecast values of the AROME–HARMONIE. Finally, an example of the approach is applied in Gran Canaria island with a comparison of the ensemble results with experimental data from AEMET meteorological stations.

Albert Oliver, Eduardo Rodríguez, Luis Mazorra-Aguiar

Solar Radiation Diagnostic and Forecasting

Frontmatter

Solar Resource Variability

Abstract

This chapter aims at characterizing and modeling solar resource variability. It is shown that understanding solar energy variability requires a definition of the temporal and spatial context for which variability is assessed. This research describes a predictable, quantifiable variability-smoothing space–time continuum from a single point to thousands of kilometers and from seconds to days. Implications for solar penetration on the power grid and variability mitigation strategies are also discussed. Models for predicting intra-day or intra-hourly variability as a function of insolation conditions are also depicted.

Richard Perez, Philippe Lauret, Marc Perez, Mathieu David, Thomas E. Hoff, Sergey Kivalov

Solar Radiation Forecasting with Statistical Models

Abstract

Renewable energy electrical generation has experienced significant growth in the recent years. Renewable energies generate electrical energy using different natural resources, such as solar radiation and wind fields. These resources present an unstable behavior because they depend on different meteorological conditions. In order to maintain the balance between input and output electrical energy into the power system, grid operators need to control and predict these fluctuating events. Indeed, forecasting methods are completely necessary to increase the proportion of renewable energies into the system (Heinemann et al. in Forecasting of solar radiation: solar energy resource management for electricity generation from local level to global scale. Nova Science Publishers, New York, 2006 [17], Wittmann et al. in IEEE J Sel Top Appl Earth Obs Remote Sens 1:18–27, 2008 [46]). Reducing the uncertainty of natural resources, operators could reduce maintenance costs, improve the interventions in the intra-day market and optimize management decisions with nonrenewable energies supply. Many forecasting methods are used to obtain solar radiation forecasting for different time horizons. In this chapter, we will focus on several solar radiation forecasting statistical methods for intra-day time horizons using ground and exogenous data as inputs.

Luis Mazorra-Aguiar, Felipe Díaz

Solar Radiation Probabilistic Forecasting

Abstract

In contrast to deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts give additional information about the inherent uncertainty embodied in weather predictions. In the realm of solar forecasting, prediction intervals are especially important to assess risks in grid operations and to optimize the energy storages needed to ensure the supply–demand balance. Even if the development of probabilistic solar forecasts is relatively recent, the main available methods come from other fields of meteorology, particularly from the wind domain. This chapter reviews some of the methods used to generate probabilistic solar forecasts. A special emphasis is put on short term (from several hours to several days) and very short term (from several minutes to several hours) forecasts. As the verification of the quality of the probabilistic forecasts is of major interest, graphical tools like reliability diagram and rank histogram are depicted. These diagnostic tools are relevant for assessing the good calibration of the probabilistic forecasts. In addition, a quantitative score, the CRPS, is also proposed. The CRPS takes into account the different sources of uncertainties and as a proper score, the CRPS is useful to rank competing forecasting methods.

Mathieu David, Philippe Lauret

Solar Radiation Maps

Abstract

Solar maps are very interesting tools to describe the characteristics of a region from the solar radiation point of view, and can be applied in atmospheric sciences and for energy engineering. To make them possible, a solar radiation numerical model is proposed. This one allows us to estimate radiation values on any point on earth. The model takes into account the terrain surface conditions and the cast shadows. The procedure uses 2-D adaptive triangles meshes built refining according to surface and albedo characteristics. Solar irradiance values are obtained for clear sky conditions. Using clear sky index as a conversion factor, real sky values are computed in terms of irradiance or irradiation with a desired time step. Finally, the solar radiation maps are obtained for all the domain.

Felipe Díaz, Gustavo Montero, Luis Mazorra-Aguiar

Titel: Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting
herausgegeben von: Dr. Richard Perez
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-76876-2
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-76875-5
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76876-2