World Market Price of Oil

Impacting Factors and Forecasting

verfasst von: Adalat Muradov, Yadulla Hasanli, Nazim Hajiyev

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : SpringerBriefs in Economics

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" , Springer Professional "Technik"

Einloggen, um Zugang zu erhalten

Über dieses Buch

This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Theoretical–Methodological Principles of the Problem

Abstract

The roles that hydrocarbon resources, including oil products as energy carriers, play in the economy and in the life of people are undeniable. Thus, a demand arises for oil and oil products as energy carriers. Oil has been extracted for many years, and it is already produced in more than 100 countries that contribute to the supply of oil and oil products. The changes in supply and demand for oil continuously maintain the volatility of the oil price, increasing the interest of producers and consumers in oil prices.

Adalat Muradov, Yadulla Hasanli, Nazim Hajiyev

Chapter 2. Creating Econometric Models: Evaluation and Analysis

Abstract

The data provided in Appendixes A–C was used in conducting the analysis and realization of the models. More precisely, data on the daily price of Brent crude oil in world oil, covering the period from January 2, 1986, to December 29, 2017 (US Energy Information Administration 2018a, b) (Appendix B); average annual oil prices in 1986–2017 (Appendix C) and 1861–2016 (Table 2.4); and the Wolf number information characterizing solar activity during the period 1700–2017 are included as inputs into the models.

Adalat Muradov, Yadulla Hasanli, Nazim Hajiyev

Chapter 3. Forecasting of the World Market Price of Oil

Abstract

To provide a forecast of oil prices, the time series (TS) covering the average prices of the Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oils in the months between January 1960 and 2017 is reviewed (see Appendix F). As Azeri Light oil from Azerbaijan has only a small time series, its prices are not included in the model. However, since the prices of Azeri Light oil in the world market are heavily dependent on the prices of other oils, its forecast prices have been predicted to build regression models that are dependent on the prices of other oils. It should be noted that the prices of Azeri Light oil in the world market are slightly higher than the prices of other oils.

Adalat Muradov, Yadulla Hasanli, Nazim Hajiyev

Backmatter

Titel: World Market Price of Oil
verfasst von: Adalat Muradov
Yadulla Hasanli
Nazim Hajiyev
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-11494-7
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-11493-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11494-7