5. Projections of Climate Change and Its Impacts

Results from multiple CMIP5 model ensembles projected a warmer climate in China with a general increase of precipitation in the future. Under the emission scenario of RCP8.5, a warming of 5.1 °C and 13.5 % increase of precipitation is projected in the end of the twenty-first century. However, spread areas with decreased precipitation are simulated by the higher resolution regional climate model. Climate change leads to the northward shift of the crop cultivation boundaries. The yield of wheat, maize, and paddy rice will decrease if the CO₂ fertilization is not considered. Northward shift of different types of forest and significant reduction of the tundra coverage over the Tibetan Plateau are expected. Although increases in the surface runoff depth are found in many areas, the shortage of water resources in the Haihe and Yellow River basins will be hard to be relieved. Sea-level rise due to the warming, plus the relative rise due to the over-extracting of ground water, will thread the local ecosystems as well as the social and economic society.