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2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. The Attribution of Climate Change and Its Uncertainty

verfasst von : Guangyu Shi, Yong Luo, Xiaoye Zhang, Guirui Yu, Renhe Zhang, Xuejie Gao, Wenjie Dong

Erschienen in: Climate and Environmental Change in China: 1951–2012

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

Earth’s climate has undergone changes caused by both natural and human factors. The natural factors include solar variability, volcanic eruptions, and interactions within the climate system. The human factors affecting climate are the changes in the composition of the atmosphere (including increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols) caused by industrial and social activities, and changes in land use and coverage. For the past century, the effect of solar variability on climate (climatic forcing) has been 1 % less than that of human activities; the effect of energy within the Earth (geothermal flows) is currently 6 % of that of human factors. On interannual and interdecadal scales, internal climate system factors and their interactions, especially ocean–atmosphere interactions, may be moderately related to global temperature changes; however, it is difficult to determine their contribution to climate change on scales longer than 100 years. Most recent global warming can be essentially attributed to human activities, although uncertainties still exist because of the limitations in observational data, the gaps in our current understanding of the way physical processes affect climate systems, and the various scenarios of future changes.

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Titel: The Attribution of Climate Change and Its Uncertainty
verfasst von: Guangyu Shi
Yong Luo
Xiaoye Zhang
Guirui Yu
Renhe Zhang
Xuejie Gao
Wenjie Dong
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Buch: Climate and Environmental Change in China: 1951–2012
Print ISBN: 978-3-662-48480-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-662-48482-1

Copyright-Jahr: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-48482-1_3