Predicting trending messages and diffusion participants in microblogging network

Microblogging services have emerged as an essential way to strengthen the communications among individuals. One of the most important features of microblog over traditional social networks is the extensive proliferation in information diffusion. As the outbreak of information diffusion often brings in valuable opportunities or devastating effects, it will be beneficial if a mechanism can be provided to predict whether a piece of information will become viral, and which part of the network will participate in propagating this information. In this work, we define three types of influences, namely, interest-oriented influence, social-oriented influence, and epidemic-oriented influence, that will affect a user's decision on whether to perform a diffusion action. We propose a diffusion-targeted influence model to differentiate and quantify various types of influence. Further we model the problem of diffusion prediction by factorizing a user's intention to transmit a microblog into these influences. The learned prediction model is then used to predict the future diffusion state of any new microblog. We conduct experiments on a real-world microblogging dataset to evaluate our method, and the results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed framework as compared to the state-of-the-art approaches.