Capacity expansion of power plants using dynamic energy analysis

The growing electricity demand impels the expansion of generation capacity. For an effective and detailed planning, it is vital to know the supply capacity and the growth potential of a power plant technology. For the growth of a power generation technology, the electricity generated from it needs reinvestment for the construction of newer power plants, other than just meeting the demand. This paper proposes a framework employing dynamic energy analysis to examine the capacity expansion, growth potential and energy dynamics of six different technologies (solar PV, wind, hydro, nuclear, coal and gas). The power plant characteristics include lifetime, construction time, energy payback time and energy reinvestment factor. Energy payback time, relative to the lifetime of a power plant, is the primary constraint in capacity expansion. We analyze energy reinvestment strategies, affecting the growth rate, and determine its optimal value. The solar PV power plant has the least maximum growth potential of 15%, while gas power plant has the highest maximum growth potential of 124%. Relationships are developed to find the minimum time frame required to follow a self-sustainable path with optimal reinvestment for any technology. A case study is presented to reach the global demand capacity target for the year 2030 following a low-carbon-emission path.