Carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) for emissions reduction and energy planning in Canada

Canada has made a commitment in the Paris Agreement to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 40–45% from 2005 levels by year 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by year 2050. An enhanced target has been established for the electricity sector, aiming to achieve a reduction of 88% from 2005 levels by 2030. Achieving these ambitious targets requires the implementation of new CO₂ reduction measures and policies. In this work, carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) is used for planning energy resources in the electricity sector while aiming to achieve both country and regional targets. Different scenarios are proposed for years 2030 and 2050 based on current policies and extension of some realistic assumptions, including the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities, negative emissions technologies (NETs), and increased capacity for renewable energy sources. In year 2030, the proposed solution indicates that the reduction of CO₂ emissions of 3.1 Mt CO₂-eq. is achievable, which is lower than the country target of 14 Mt CO₂-eq. This solution can serve as the benchmark for each stakeholders at provincial level to reach their regional target. Results also show that electricity and CO₂ trading are required to meet the energy requirement and to achieve the year 2030 CO₂ emissions reduction goal at the provincial level which is the novelty of this paper. Although none of the cases has met net-zero emissions in year 2050, they do demonstrate that net zero is not far from materialisation.