Climate Change Adaptation in Developed Nations

It is widely accepted that the climate is changing, with implications for human systems already documented (Fussel 2009; Smith et al. 2009; Stott et al. 2010). Climate models indicate continued and accelerated climate change in the future (Solomon et al. 2007). Research is only beginning to examine the potential implications of climate change for human systems and indicates significant vulnerabilities (Hulme 2008). Society will not be static as the climate changes, however, undergoing social, cultural, economic, and political changes that will affect how human systems experience climate change and determine adaptive capacity to respond. Some of these developments will moderate vulnerability: poverty, for instance, is a major determinant of climate vulnerability the world-over, and decreasing poverty rates with economic development offers considerable opportunity to reduce sensitivity to climatic risks and enhance adaptability. Aging populations, population growth in high-risk locations (e.g., coastal zones), increasing inequality, and weakening of social networks are trends that are likely to exacerbate vulnerability.

Research on the impacts of climate change suggests that developed countries are not immune to the effects of a changing climate. The assumption that because of their high adaptive capacity, developed countries will adapt effectively is beginning to be dispelled by empirical evidence. While advancements in projections have facilitated a move from the study of impacts to concrete adaptation strategies, research that focuses on the social process of adaptation has been relatively neglected. Yet, when viewed as a social process, the psychological, social, and cultural aspects of adaptation are exposed, which brings into focus the effects that values and power dimensions have on actual adjustments and their outcomes for adaptation. This chapter demonstrates that some of the critical barriers to adaptation in developed countries arise from perceptions and values. It argues that these barriers are hindering adaptation now and will continue to do so unless the intricacies of the social processes underpinning adaptation are taken into explicit consideration in research and policy. Drawing on recent theoretical and empirical studies, the examples highlighted here show that narratives of immunity to the impacts of climate change in developed countries, confidence in technology, and perceived lack of immediacy about climate change impacts have resulted in an unwarranted complacency about adaptation. Effective adaptation strategies should be informed by a deeper understanding of the social process of adaptation and need to address a wide range of barriers.

Since the early years of the twenty-first century, the United States has been awakening rapidly to the fact that climate change is underway and that adaptation to the unavoidable impacts of climate change is needed and must be begun now. This chapter provides an historical overview of the public, political, and scientific concern with adaptation in America. It begins by describing the shift from the early concerns with climate change and adaptation to the more recent awakening to the need for a comprehensive approach to managing the risks from climate change, as reflected in the news media. This shift is evident from the recent debates and drafting of adaptation-related bills in Congress; to the rapidly expanding activities at the state and local government levels; to the increasing engagement of nongovernmental organizations, professional associations, scientists, and consultants. This policy rush is not underlain, however, by widespread public engagement and mobilization, nor does it rest on a solid research foundation. To help the United States prepare adequately for the impacts of climate change, funding for vulnerability and adaptation research must be significantly increased. This will facilitate establishing adequate decision support mechanisms; effective communication and public involvement; and building the necessary capacity in science, the consulting world, and in government agencies.

Many regions in Europe are vulnerable to climate change impacts and these have already been observed in many human and natural systems. There is therefore a need for all European countries to adapt to climate change. However, climate change does not pose a threat at all levels of change, nor in a similar way across all economic sectors and regions. Impacts of climate change vary by region, with the Mediterranean basin, north western and central-eastern Europe, and the Arctic, together with many coastal zones and other areas prone to river floods, mountains, and cities being particularly vulnerable. Consequently, adaptation options have to be tailor-made to local geographic conditions in terms of vulnerable landscape types and sectors involved. This is why European and national adaptation strategies must be complemented by regional approaches that address implementation issues at this scale. The European Union (EU) Adaptation White Paper together with national and regional adaptation strategies provide key steps toward European frameworks for adaptation measures and policies to strengthen resilience to climate change impacts. Monitoring and evaluation methods must be further developed, so that adaptation practices can be assessed across time and space. A preliminary set of success factors and barriers to adaptation is also important to identify and assess the determinants of good practices and assist stakeholders in developing robust adaptation strategies that can make Europe more resilient to climate change. Potential conflicts, synergies, and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation have also to be identified early in the decision-making process, and adaptation and mitigation efforts should be coordinated.

The past focus of climate change action in Australia was dominated by mitigation initiatives and these remain a critical and urgent issue. However, the global imperative for planning and action to adapt to likely climate change impacts articulated by the scientific community has now been adopted as a key imperative for governments, industries, and communities alike. While it is often difficult to separate climate change adaptation initiatives from existing risk management or sustainability initiatives, over recent years there has been clear identification of new climate change adaptation policies and programs. These initiatives range from local-scale planning to reduce vulnerability, to national research programs such as the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Climate Adaptation Flagship. The Australian Government has also created a Department of Climate Change to coordinate and support activities at the national level. One of the key challenges that remains is mainstreaming the understanding of vulnerability to climate change impacts and associated adaptation initiatives, across and within sectors. For example, the emphasis of research and action has been based on assessments of exposure, with only a limited number of past research projects focused on the understanding of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Furthermore, climate change adaptation is usually framed within an economic rationalist paradigm, rather than a quality of life paradigm, and consequently there are challenges and potential paradoxes associated with achieving overriding goals such as short-term economic growth. Nevertheless, Australia continues to build upon existing mitigation and risk management initiatives and has now embraced a range of policies, strategies, and promising actions to enhance climate change adaptation.

This chapter is a review of the landscape of adaptation science and policy stakeholders and networks in the United Kingdom. The aim is to broadly map the key stakeholders and the activities in the science and policy sectors, and across regions and the Devolved Administrations. This is done to gain a better understanding of the range and scope of adaptation actions in the United Kingdom to date. The chapter makes advances in understanding the evolution of the UK adaptation landscape and demonstrates how adaptation policy and science are building adaptive capacity across institutions and networks. We conclude that adaptation policy and actions represent a change to living with climate change futures. The chapter also highlights that there remain significant challenges ahead, in particular in the realm of science.

The necessity for adaptation is now widely recognized in Canada. However, the developing pattern of response is an expanding mosaic. Individual pieces – i.e., initiatives at the provincial, territorial, and municipal levels – are visible, but the overall strategic design is lacking clarity and cohesion. This is likely due, in part, to Canada’s federalism, and to the conceptualization of adaptation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The negotiations leading to the UNFCCC conceived of adaptation as largely a place-based and local matter; of concern only to those most vulnerable communities and countries. In consequence, a bottom-up approach was viewed as the preferred option. Over the life of the UNFCCC, adaptation has grown in significance and has come to be seen as requiring top-down strategic approaches. A major challenge now facing Canada – and indeed all Parties to the Convention – will be the effective and simultaneous management and coordination of both top-down and bottom-up approaches. Currently, in Canada, the blend has been allowed to evolve almost unguided, with modest encouragement from the federal government. Leadership has emerged at both provincial and municipal levels across the country. But it is not clear what the consequences of such an approach will be.

Climate change is expected to increase health risks in all countries. Although public health agencies and organizations have impressive records of controlling the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes, current and planned programs and activities may need to be modified to address the additional risks of climate change. Programs and activities need to take an iterative risk management approach if they are to maintain current levels of health burdens as diseases change their geographic range and incidence in response to changing temperature and precipitation patterns and as the risks of adverse health outcomes from extreme weather events increase. Public health can learn from the experiences in ecosystem management with adaptive management, a structured and iterative process of decision-making in the face of imperfect information, with an aim of reducing uncertainty through monitoring and evaluation. Although many of the steps in adaptive management are familiar to public health, key differences include: a stronger emphasis on stakeholder engagement; taking a systems-based approach; developing interventions based on models of future impacts; and a strong and explicit focus on iterative management that can facilitate the capacity for further adaptation. Incorporating these elements into public health programs and activities will increase their effectiveness to address the health risks of climate change.

This chapter examines the relationship between people’s general sense of psychosocial well-being and their capacity to respond to climate change and extreme weather events. Many people, while aware and concerned about climate change, are preoccupied with more immediate worries such as financial and health concerns as well as crime and other neighborhood conditions. Should environmental and emergency preparedness programming be effective in promoting adaptive behavior, it is important that these programs take into account how people’s daily needs, priorities, attitudes, and values influence their motivation to prepare for climate change impacts. As such, there must be flexibility in the delivery of information and programming. This cannot be effectively achieved without greater emphasis on a participatory and consultative approach aimed at identifying those individual and community needs and priorities that shape people’s responsiveness to public messaging and programs. This in turn increases the likelihood that people will not only perceive greater relevance in community activities aimed at enhancing climate change awareness and personal emergency preparedness, but will allow people to see themselves as part of the solution to climate change and other risks.

The unpredictable nature of climate change poses considerable challenges to public health because it acts as a multiplier on existing exposure pathways and thus exacerbates existing vulnerabilities. Urban settings are particularly susceptible to the impacts of extreme weather events due to high population densities with shared exposure pathways. Moreover, metropolitan areas tend to be at increased risk from heat waves because urban climates are often warmer than un-built surroundings. Three aspects of urban adaptation to climate change are addressed here: (1) social interventions that advance bonding, bridging, and linking social capital in order to enhance community capacity and resilience; (2) interventions that attenuate the negative consequences of climatic events by physically improving the built environment; and (3) social services interventions that integrate multiple sectors through emergency plans for risk reduction of vulnerable populations.

These adaptation strategies in urban environments illustrate the concept of lateral public health based on transdisciplinary cooperation and community-based participation. In order to mount an effective response, public health practitioners need to transcend the traditional disciplinary boundaries and embrace lateral public health. This framework farms out public health action to other sectors of society, as well as community members of at-risk populations, in order to promote sustainable adaptation.

Climate change is expected to increase the health risks for Canadians from infectious diseases from our environment, including vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne diseases. Adaptation efforts will be important to reduce the impact of these risks. Public health systems are in place in Canada to control many disease risks but there are still knowledge gaps on, and modifications needed to, existing approaches to protecting the population from endemic diseases and new or emerging pathogens. This chapter addresses five key questions on whether public health is on track to helping communities adapt to changing risks. The questions address adaptation to disease risk of climate change by exploring the following: assessments of disease risks, methods for adaptation, responsibility, resources, and public action and societal will. Overall, with these increasing risks to the health of Canadians, all sectors of society will need to participate in the adaptive response, while federal, provincial, and community public health bodies will need to work together to identify and communicate risk and promote and coordinate adaptation responses.

The Swedish Government’s Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (2005–2007) assessed local vulnerability to climate change and adaptation needs within the main sectors of society for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. The workgroup on Health (human and animal) worked closely with that on water. This chapter presents the main findings of the section on water-related health consequences from climate change. Heavy rain, floods, landslides, and increases in water flows may directly or indirectly impact infrastructure, buildings, public services, water sources, etc., which could cause health consequences ranging from deaths, injuries, and outbreaks of infectious diseases, to exposure to toxic compounds, and allergic reactions.

The Commission’s recommendations to different governmental authorities on issues connected to water-related health consequences are presented, together with additional adaptive measures that were suggested by the Health and Water workgroups. The value of incorporating the added risks of climate change into existing programs and planning was emphasized. In response to the recommendations, the government has now created new funding opportunities for climate change-related scientific research, and for knowledge building within its agencies. At the local level, some county and municipality boards have themselves initiated vulnerability and adaptation assessments focusing on local conditions, as bases for further planning and responses.

High ambient temperatures are a cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in Japan. First, we describe the health impacts of heat waves, which include not only heatstroke, but also mortality and morbidity due to indirect effects of high temperatures. Older adults, young children, and persons with chronic medical conditions are particularly susceptible. Second, we discuss public health adaptation to projected increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves due to climate change in Japan. These adaptation measures include those taken by the Ministry of Environment, and various local governments in response to local factors. Third, we discuss key challenges to adapting to high temperatures and minimizing heat-related health impacts. We finish by discussing the adaptation measures used by the government of Japan and some local cities to increase population resilience to heat waves. Critical issues include that measures should be suitable for the target populations (the vulnerable subgroups) and comprehensive.

Climate change poses increasing risks to the health of Canadians, particularly those most vulnerable to the impacts. Effective adaptations are needed to help people safeguard their health and well-being. Governments and communities have an important role to play in protecting citizens from climate-related health risks. Individuals also have a central role in adapting to climate change. Information about the perceptions of climate-related health risks and current vulnerability to the impacts is limited, but this information is needed by public health and emergency management authorities to inform education and outreach programs to promote greater adaptation actions among Canadians. This case study reports on the results of a national survey that was conducted in spring 2008 to better understand how Canadians perceive risks to health from climate change. Canadians generally accept that the climate is changing and many are concerned about its impacts – 72% view climate change as at least a moderate risk to health, with 32% rating it as a major risk. However, few Canadians have knowledge of specific risks to health posed by climate change, and many are not responding to health messages encouraging them to take protective measures to reduce impacts from current climate-related hazards. Results of this case study suggest that greater efforts are needed to inform Canadians about specific health risks related to climate change and tailor messages to populations most vulnerable to the impacts, in order to facilitate the adoption of adaptive actions.

The success of private industry has long been sensitive to weather conditions. Accordingly, companies regularly adjust their business practices with change in the weather and the climate. Accelerating climate change increases the importance for industry to manage weather risks, and it adds to the difficulty of this process. Case studies presented in this book from the electricity, construction, insurance, and forestry industries identify current barriers and constraints to adaptation, and showcase potential adaptive actions for companies seeking to manage climate risks.

Research on adaptation by industry to climate change is typically addressed within a decision-making framework where complex issues are mainstreamed into a comprehensive risk management system. The specific consideration of any one issue, like climate change, to an overall business decision may be impossible to measure, yet there is a framework for decision-making using well-established tools that can address all potential risks within the broad context that supports action.

Four industry case studies identify a number of challenges evident for private decision-makers and other interested stakeholders seeking to support better decision-making by industry with respect to adaptation to climate change. There are significant differences in climate sensitivity between industries and between companies within an industry, so support mechanisms ideally must be customized for the specific circumstance of each business. Businesses need detailed local projections for many climate variables beyond temperature and precipitation. The importance of climate change for industry decision-making is highly dependent on the planning horizon and climate sensitivity evident in each industry. Also the relative absence of research into anticipatory and reactive adaptation by private industry provides a challenge for private and public decision-makers seeking to understand industry best practices.

The topic of this chapter is climate change adaptation options for the electricity sector in Germany and France. The impacts of weather and climate change on this sector are described first. Based on this, practical adaptation options are then specified for the better use of opportunities and minimizing the preventable risks in the energy industry. Since the impacts and possible adaptation measures need to be considered in regional and company-specific scales, the German energy company Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) and the French company Electricité de France (EDF) are focused upon.

The options for adaptation are distinguished between short- and medium-term measures on one hand, and long-term measures on the other. One short-term option for action is load management. By recognizing the changing consumer behaviors, both quantitatively and qualitatively, loads can be adjusted to the momentarily optimized generation of energy. An important medium-term option for action is research into impacts and adaptation. Identifying the impacts of climate change on the sector is essential, because even two companies’ susceptibility in the same industry can differ considerably.

A long-term measure for adaptation is to produce a diverse range and design of power plants. While this strategy should be initiated for several reasons, the risks of climate change can be dispersed better, because every type of power generation is affected by climate change in its own specific way.

Society has developed numerous mechanisms for mitigating risks associated with the potential failure or underperformance of built infrastructure. An important subset are the codes, standards, and related instruments (CSRI) that establish tenets of reasonable practice with respect to the planning, engineering, construction, and management of built infrastructure. After introducing CSRI as fundamental risk management tools for society, this chapter identifies some of the ways in which climate change could begin to undermine these same critical functions of CSRI in the future. It investigates how CSRI and the processes involved in their development must change in order to properly account for climate change, and thereby allow CSRI to play a proactive role in facilitating adaptation on the part of planners, engineers, builders, and managers of built infrastructure. The chapter concludes by offering a number of recommendations for future work in the area of climate change and CSRI. Canada is the region of focus for this chapter, but the issues discussed are relevant for developed nations generally, since all developed nations rely upon CSRI to help set levels of safety and performance in relation to built infrastructure.

Insurance is a prominent, well-established mechanism for risk transfer in developed countries. While North American governments have stalled on both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, the insurance industry (globally and in North America) is already viewing recent catastrophic events as being partially climate change related and exploring new adaptation initiatives. In general, the intent of these initiatives is to assure the prosperity of the insurance sector, not to prevent damage to life and property. Reliance by insurers on predictive risk modeling continues to be limited, as new initiatives are prompted by extreme events rather than modeled projections of damage. As another example of reactive behavior, insurers rely on legal judgments to determine the extent of their liabilities. This pattern of learning and response has two implications. First, opportunities for anticipatory adaptation prompted by insurer initiatives are very limited, which guarantees continued large losses from extreme events into the future. Second, proactive risk mitigation will have to be pursued and implemented on behalf of public welfare by the relevant branches of government and cannot be left to market forces.

The degree to which Canadian forest management policies, institutions, and other factors either support or hinder the development of climate change adaptive capacity is discussed. The analysis is based on discussions with government and industry forest managers across Canada. Managers feel that they have the tools and the technical capability to successfully adapt. However, while these tools and abilities are available to forest managers, they are not always utilized due to policy barriers or lack of resources. Also, the adaptive capacity requirements of forest managers may be increasing as a result of global warming, as well as broader social, economic, and market trends. A model of “embedded science,” in which scientists closely interact with forest managers in planning exercises leads to increased adaptive capacity. Some institutions, such as forest certification, have the potential for providing a framework for determining adaptation and adaptive capacity requirements. However, they will need to be modified in order to realize that potential. Forest management policy generally supports adaptation, but may limit the implementation of adaptation options in cases where the required innovation lies far outside of business-as-usual activities. Forest management policy needs to become more flexible and forward-looking, focusing on expected future outcomes under potentially different conditions, while at the same time acknowledging the uncertainty in expected outcomes. Reforming existing forest tenure arrangements and providing forest managers with more flexibility and local autonomy will allow more timely adaptation to climate change as well as other sources of change.

This overview chapter considers five questions that cut across the four case studies in the section to follow: Why are urban environments of particular interest? What does an “urban environment” mean as a focus for adaptation actions? What do we know about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials in urban areas? What can we expect in the future with adaptation in urban areas? And what is happening with climate change adaptation in urban areas?

As evidence of climate change has increased, attention has shifted from “is it happening?” toward “what should be the response?” There is increasing focus on assessing climate change impacts at the local scale, and on developing practical responses. This chapter summarizes lessons for assessment methodologies and practical adaptive responses for small- to medium-sized urban settlements, drawing on integrated assessment (IA) of five Australia settlements. The chapter describes the IA methodology developed, the nature of detailed investigations into specific impacts, and insights regarding local assessment and adaptation.

Local government plays an important role in facilitating adaptation to climate change at the community and regional level. Experiences and lessons from New Zealand suggest that the following elements together contribute to an enabling environment for local government: (1) raising community awareness of climate change; (2) engaging and developing the local expertise of professionals and decision-makers by presenting climate change science, scenarios and their uncertainties in locally relevant contexts and through interactive workshops; (3) adoption of a sequential approach to assess risks and identify vulnerabilities in the context of other socioeconomic and location-specific pressures; and (4) support from central government through regulation and guidance material. We outline the measures undertaken in each of those areas and discuss remaining barriers and uncertainties.

This study analyzes processes of adaptation to climate change through participatory research in Sweden’s two largest cities, Stockholm and Gothenburg. Perceptions of climate risks and constraints to adaptation are discussed. Practitioners from the public and private sector have identified stakeholders who are, and who should be, giving attention to adaptation, including the risks and threats facing the regions and how and which factors hinder the implementation of adaptation. In this study, it is found that those issues where adaptation is considered most difficult are mainly related to response capacity.

King County, Washington, is a North American leader in the development and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This chapter describes the early experiences of King County in developing and implementing a climate change adaptation program under the leadership of King County Executive Ron Sims, during the years 2005–2009. Basic review of the King County example suggests that the county can serve as a useful model for other governments in launching and maintaining a successful climate change adaptation program. The King County experience also provides insights about types of external support a local government would need when establishing such a program.

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change but has considerable adaptation potential. The sector will be significantly transformed over the next few decades as it incorporates new technology and management and organization, that are in part a response to changing demands from growing population, changing incomes, other competition for land, resource and environmental protection, and the effects of environmental change, including climate change, on agriculture. Adaptation research to date has largely been about educating the sector about potential risks and possible adaptation strategies. As we move to more “client-based” research, these recommendations will need to be more precise and tailored to individual decision-makers. Given the likely changes in the sector, much adaptation information may be delivered to farmers through recommendations on crops, pest management, and other inputs and products delivered by input manufactures and suppliers, and so these organizations will be as, if not more important clients for adaptation research. Research also needs to focus on where markets may fail in being adequately prepared, such as from the risk of abrupt climate change. The challenge ahead for adaptation research is how to come up with concrete, tested, and robust strategies that are responsive to the decision time frames in agriculture (10–20 years), given the significant variability and noise in climate.

The production of grain is common to many developed countries. This industry therefore provides numerous opportunities to compare the responses of developed countries, in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This chapter focuses on Canada and Australia. These countries are representative of developed countries because of their geographical locations, and wheat is a major industry in each. This chapter identifies (1) research efforts in each country that are focused on developing new adaptive technologies, strategies, and plans; and (2) current practices that encourage the implementation of adaptive strategies. This chapter compares the adaptation research and policy approaches taken by Canada and Australia, and identifies strengths, weaknesses, and best practices that can be shared among developed countries.

Adaptation is gaining attention as an inevitable answer to the challenges posed by climate change. The increasingly uncertain climatic conditions to which actors are exposed are becoming a constraint for their well-being. This chapter looks at diversification of agricultural land use as a key factor in reducing risk and as a means of coping with an uncertain climate. Borrowing from economic theory, this chapter illustrates how cropping patterns influence the expected revenue and risk. The standard deviation of the land use revenue is used as a proxy for climate risk.

Agricultural land use is associated with two competing land use and water management strategies in the Hungarian Tisza River Basin: intensive agriculture protected by flood levees, and water retention areas with extensive cattle breeding and orchards. To cope with flood risk, the Hungarian government supports water retention and land use change to replace or complement the prevailing intensive agriculture dependent on flood levees and drainage. Our analysis shows that revenues from agriculture are well adjusted to the current climate variability. Considering recent revenues, a shift from intensive agriculture to extensive cattle breeding and orchards increases both the expected revenue from agriculture and the risk.

Agricultural land covers over 70% of England and provides a wide range of important benefits to the society. These benefits are vulnerable to both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Successful adaptation by the agriculture and land management sector is therefore vital, and this adaptation must be sustainable.

This chapter introduces the concept of sustainable adaptation and discusses the United Kingdom government’s approach to adaptation by the agriculture and land management sectors in England. We explain the importance of agriculture in England and the multiple benefits provided by agricultural systems, and briefly outline the pressures from climate change. We then outline a set of principles and a framework for decision making we have developed to help achieve sustainable adaptation. We describe how this framework is being applied to the development of adaptation policy for agriculture, and summarize some initial adaptation priorities that have been identified.

We discuss how sustainable adaptation by farmers and land managers can be encouraged, focusing on the role government can play, including the likely contribution that existing agricultural policies will make to adaptation. Significant challenges exist, not least uncertainty about the future. Nevertheless, the adaptation measures that we have identified as initial priorities correspond closely to existing agricultural and environmental good practice, providing a clear starting point for action.

Agriculture policy and adaptation policy are largely devolved to the national assemblies of the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Therefore this chapter will largely focus on England. However, in some cases policy or research (for example, the Climate Change Risk Assessment required by the Climate Change Act) is undertaken on a UK-wide basis, some statistics are collected for the UK as a whole, and many of the issues discussed are applicable across all administrations.

Anthropogenic climate change will create a new decision environment for governments, both national and regional. In rural regions and small towns, which are already facing a wide range of social, economic, and environmental pressures, this challenge will be especially difficult because of lower capacities to adapt. There are, however, encouraging examples of rural regions and small communities that are finding innovative ways to create shared learning partnerships that could empower them to create their own response paths. While researchers offer new knowledge on future climate change impacts, local-based practitioners and knowledge holders provide insights on local systems and the importance of attachment to place. As rural regions and small towns begin to take on leadership roles in adaptation planning, researchers and higher levels of government can use their capacities to enable local adaptation as part of long-term development planning. Examples are provided from the literature, followed by five cases contributed to this volume.

The Hamilton region in Victoria, Australia is a rural farming community consisting of several small towns and the regional center of Hamilton. The region is already experiencing climate change, with a steady decline in annual rainfall and available groundwater, and increased frequency of droughts. A prolonged drought has necessitated ongoing water restrictions and forced farmers to alter cropping and stocking practices. Rainfall patterns are predicted to shift further toward the dry, which will affect farm viability, as will increased transport costs due to rising oil prices. The challenges the community face have led to a high local interest in understanding and responding to climate change. When the authors organized a public meeting in April 2007, over 70 people attended. They wanted to take immediate action on climate change, not wait for new national policies.

A scenario thinking workshop was held in February 2008. Forty-one representatives of different sectors within the community participated. They developed four different stories of the future and undertook an initial analysis to identify implications and adaptation strategies. This revealed that climate change could have far more complex impacts on the region than first imagined. Possible impacts included higher levels of financial pressures, stress, mental illness, and addictive behaviors, affecting community cohesion and quality of life, plus possible farm closures, high unemployment, and associated population losses, affecting the viability of small towns. Strategies identified to reduce the vulnerability of the region included altering farming practices, ensuring water security, building social cohesion, attracting new residents, and diversifying employment opportunities. The local shire council, regional health service, and others have used the workshop outcomes to rethink their strategic plans.

Resource-dependent communities are likely to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Yet, natural resource management policies continue to be developed and implemented without considering climate change adaptation. We highlight that this lack of coordination is potentially harmful to natural resources and resource-dependent communities with an example from the Tibetan Plateau, a region where climate is changing rapidly. Tibetan pastoralists inhabit rangelands that are the focus of recent development and management policies that promote fencing, sedentarization, individual rangeland use rights, and the elimination of grazing in some areas. These policies may have a negative effect on herders’ ability to adapt to climate change. China’s National Climate Change Programme lists controlling or eliminating grazing in some areas as key for adaptation to climate change, but experimental results indicate that grazing may buffer the rangelands from the negative effects of warming. These findings indicate that policies that support the well-developed strategies of resource-dependent communities for living in uncertain and variable environments can also enhance adaptation of these social and ecological systems to climate change. We conclude that management and environmental protection policies developed separately from climate change policy face increased failure potential and may decrease the ability of natural resources and the communities that depend upon them to successfully adapt to climate change.

Climate change will create numerous challenges for water managers. In Ontario, many parts of the province will experience decreased runoff and groundwater recharge, reduced lake levels, and more extreme precipitation events. Shift in patterns of precipitation also are expected, with more falling as rain rather than snow in winter, and with summers being drier. For water managers, the implications are serious. At the most basic level, long-term plans and investments that assume that future hydrological conditions in future will be the same as those of the past simply are not sensible. How can water managers at the local level, who already face considerable challenges in dealing with current climatic variability, adjust to this new reality? This chapter argues for adaptation through

mainstreaming

, in other words, building adaptation to climate change into existing decision-making and planning processes. Ongoing efforts to protect drinking water sources across Ontario currently afford the best opportunity to mainstream climate change into an existing water-related planning process. The chapter identifies challenges and opportunities for accomplishing this goal.

This chapter describes various forces that influence the ability of decision-making and institutional structures in Canadian rural and resource-dependent communities to manage, plan for, and respond to future risks and uncertainties resulting from climate change. The context within which such communities make decisions related to capacity building is the outcome of historical development trajectories, interactions with higher levels of government, and macro-level economic structures and processes. The success of future capacity building and planning will be strongly influenced by such factors as improved coordination across different levels of government, the provision of locally geared information about environmental and climate change, economic diversification and the ability to adjust to and take advantage of rapidly changing demographic patterns in such communities.

The majority of anticipatory adaptation frameworks applied in developed countries tend to idealize the institutional and cultural readiness for their successful deployment. We explore the validity of these assumptions for Arctic Canada, where marginalized communities are experiencing extreme climate change, as well as contending with many other external and internal stresses. Collaborations with communities in Nunavut revealed that they lack the resources, institutional capacity, and expertise to employ long-term strategic planning processes and conventional analytical decision methods. More importantly, their priorities and cultural perspective are inconsistent with underlying Western theory and its implicit assumptions. In light of these challenges, we recommend that efforts to mainstream climate change adaptation rely on frameworks that can (1) respect community priorities and introduce resilience to climate change as one part of meeting other critical development goals and (2) accommodate key cultural differences in decision-making, values, and the use of information.

This chapter places the book in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and describes how the developing countries were the leaders in recognizing the need for greater attention to adaptation. The developed countries are now beginning to move rapidly into adaptation and an explosion of interest is bringing to the fore a long list of unresolved questions about adaptation to climate change and its relation to development, and its appropriate management from the local to the national level and for different socioeconomic sectors and a wide variety of climate-related risks. This book is at the leading edge of a rapidly expanding literature with many questions remaining to be addressed.