Skip to main content
Fachgebiete
Automobil + Motoren Bauwesen + Immobilien Business IT + Informatik Elektrotechnik + Elektronik Energie + Nachhaltigkeit Finance + Banking Management + Führung Marketing + Vertrieb Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe Versicherung + Risiko
DE
EN
Themenseiten
Organisationspsychologie Projektmanagement Marketing Smart Manufacturing
Bücher
Zeitschriften
Weitere Formate
Podcasts Webinare Technik Webinare Wirtschaft Kongresse Veranstaltungskalender Awards
Jetzt Einzelzugang starten
Zugang für Unternehmen
Referenzkunden
ATZ-Fachkongress

Chassis.tech plus 2024


4 Kongresse in einer Veranstaltung

Treffen Sie in München die Fachleute von Chassis, Lenkung, Bremsen sowie Reifen/Räder.
Erweiterte Suche
Anmelden
nach oben
Erschienen in:
Buchtitelbild

2023 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

1. Impact of Covid-19 on Macroeconomic Developments: Recession, Recovery and Assessment

verfasst von : Manoj Panda

Erschienen in: Contextualizing the COVID Pandemic in India

Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This chapter examines the macroeconomic developments covering the recession and recovery in India during Covid-19. It begins with a brief introduction of the global environment since the outbreak of Covid-19 and the spread of the pandemic during March 2020 to March 2023. It discusses the closure of production units following the lockdown and the government’s policy response to ameliorate the adverse effects. It examines the macroeconomic developments during fiscal 2020–21, the year of recession when GDP witnessed an absolute fall by 5.7%. It documents the impact of recession on sectoral value added, unemployment, consumption, investment, fiscal and trade parameters during the recession. It also briefly describes the movements of these variables during 2021–22, the year of recovery and 2022–23, the year of global conflict. Next, the chapter makes an assessment of the policy measures and the likely impact of recession on different income groups and incidence of poverty. It hints at reorienting certain macroeconomic and human development policies to equip the economy and the people to meet a pandemic like situation in future.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren
Nächstes Kapitel Primary Health Care and Resilience of Health Systems
Fußnoten
1
The global numbers here are from International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, October, 2022 and April, 2023.
 
2
According to an estimate made by WHO, excess mortality during the Covid period was at least 3.3 million as against 1.8 million reported Covid mortality in 2020. It indicates total number of deaths during the pandemic compared to those expected under normal conditions and thus includes deaths directly due to the virus and indirectly due to disruptions in essential health services, travel restrictions, reduced affordability etc. (https://​www.​who.​int/​data/​stories/​the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality).
 
3
The Oxford–AstraZeneca developed Covishield vaccine was produced by the Serum Institute of India (SII) that is credited with production of the world’s largest number of doses of different vaccines used in 170 countries.
 
4
Covaxin was indigenously developed by an Indian firm Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research and the National Institute of Virology.
 
5
Fiscal year 2020–21 refers to April 2020–March 2021 in India and so on.
 
6
See, for example, Report on Currency and Finance (RBI, 2022).
 
7
During the pandemic, the phrase Atmanirbhar has been used in a wider sense of referring to policies to offset the economic impact of Covid by food distribution, production and distribution of vaccines and personal protection equipment (PPE) for health care workers. It was also used at times for new initiatives in areas like industry, education and defence.
 
8
Dev and Sengupta (2022) describe the policy measures in greater details.
 
9
NFSA was enacted in 2013 with a target to cover 62% of India’s population. In 2020, 80 crore ration card holders constituted 58% of total population.
 
10
These major states account for 98% of the total income.
 
11
See, RBI annual Report 2020–21 for more details.
 
12
RBI (2022): Handbook of Statistics on Economies of States.
 
13
Second Advanced Estimate for 2023–24 by the National Statistical Office released in February 2023.
 
14
RBI Annual Report 2020–21.
 
15
Various simulation exercises using CGE models indicate that the Keynesian fiscal multiplier varies between 0.7 and 1.5 depending on the environment and instrument used (Kumar & Panda, 2009). Since government used various income generating means such as food distribution, employment generation, direct transfer, and infrastructure investment during Covid pandemic, an average fiscal multiplier of 1.2 may be used. It will be interesting to carry out a detailed study on the GDP impact of the stimulus instruments used in India with relevant closure for the specific environment of 2020–21.
 
16
An early attempt by RBI (2002) placed the sacrifice ratio at +2.0; other estimates are: Kapur and Patra (2003) between 0.5 and 4.7 depending on alternative measures of inflation, specifications and time period, Dholakia (2014) between 1.7 and 2.1 for disinflation period and 2.8 for inflation period, Mitra and Sanyal (2015) got 2.8 for expansionary phase and 2.3 for contractionary phase, Goyal and Goyal (2019) obtained 6.7 during 2011–17.
 
17
CRISIL (2023) estimates GDP growth of 6.8% during FY24 to FY28.
 
18
The very poor were entitled to 35 kg of grains per month per household.
 
19
Economic Survey 2021–22, p. 371.
 
Literatur
CRISIL. (2023). Rider in the storm: Tracing India’s growth in a volatile world. Market intelligence and analytics, CRISIL, Mumbai.
Dasgupta, P., Panda, M., Bansal, R., & Sahay, S. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on India: Alternative scenarios for economic and social development. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 26(2).
Dev, M. S., & Sengupta, R. (2022). Covid-19 Pandemic: Impact, Recovery, and the Road Ahead for the Indian Economy. WP-2022-016. Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai.
Dholakia, R. H. (2014). Sacrifice ratio and cost of inflation for the Indian economy. IIMA Working Papers WP 2014-02-04. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
Ghatak, A., Sarkar, K. (2023). Legal protection for domestic workers in COVID-19 pandemic times in India: Employers’ perspectives. The Indian Journal of Industrial Relations, 58(3), January 2023.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). World Economic Outlook. Washington DC, October 2022.
Kapur, M., & Patra, M. D. (2003). The Price of Low Inflation. RBI Occasional Papers, 21 (2 and 3, 2000).
Kumar, A. G., & Panda, M. (2009). Global economic shocks and Indian policy response: An analysis using a CGE model. In SP Kirit (Ed.), Macro-modelling for the eleventh five year plan of India. New Delhi, Planning Commission, Government of India and Academic Foundation.
Panda, M. (2020). Growth Scenarios during COVID-19 Pandemic. Chapter in Fighting Covid-19–Assessments and Reflections, IEG Insights 2020, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi.
Planning Commission. (2009). Report of the expert group to review the methodology for estimation of poverty. Government of India, New Delhi.
Planning Commission. (2014). Report of the expert group to review the methodology for estimation of poverty. Government of India, New Delhi.
Reserve Bank of India. (2002). Report on Currency and Finance 2000. RBI, Mumbai
Reserve Bank of India. (2021). Report on Currency and Finance 2020–21. RBI, Mumbai
Reserve Bank of India. (2022). Annual Report 2021–22. RBI, Mumbai.
Metadaten
Titel
Impact of Covid-19 on Macroeconomic Developments: Recession, Recovery and Assessment
verfasst von
Manoj Panda
Copyright-Jahr
2023
Verlag
Springer Nature Singapore
Buch
Contextualizing the COVID Pandemic in India

Print ISBN: 978-981-9949-05-2

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-9949-06-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2023

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-4906-9_1

Premium Partner

    Bildnachweise