Response to the planned public transport system in Ho Chi Minh City: analysis of latent classes

A public transport (PT) system that is a low-carbon transport option is vital for sustainable urban development. However, introducing this type of system in developing cities may be a challenge given residents’ common practice of using private vehicles, especially motorcycles, for transportation. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this study aims to enhance understanding of preferences for PT. A dataset of 591 motorcycle users about their responses to the planned PT system was analyzed, considering their heterogeneity. The usage frequencies of PT were treated as an indicator of preference. The potential customers were classified into latent classes based on the assumption that there are differences in the factors that influence specific groups. A latent class choice model including two components of class assignment and utility functions was estimated to explain the preferences. Two latent classes were identified: the “collectivistic” class (69.5% of sample) and the “individualistic” class (30.5% of sample). The correlation between preferences for the current bus system and the new PT was captured within each class. The positive roles of social interaction and agreement with PT projects were observed in the “collectivistic” class, while the positive role of distance to work and negative role of dissatisfaction with service were found in the “individualistic” class. Comfort significantly impacted both classes, but the “collectivistic” class responded in a more positive way. The results suggest that differential marketing strategies should be developed to encourage users with different characteristics to make the change to PT.