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Erschienen in:
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2014 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

5. The Natural Gas Revolution and Central Asia

verfasst von : Robert W. Kolb

Erschienen in: Perspectives on Energy Risk

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

This article examines the ongoing natural gas revolution and assesses its impact on the energy industry and societies of Central Asia, conceived as the five “Stans”: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The natural gas revolution consists of three related technological developments—hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling, and the increasing build-out of the world liquid natural gas (LNG) infrastructure.
The article focuses on Turkmenistan and its rich reserves of natural gas and explores the conditions under which Turkmen gas currently reaches international markets through pipelines to China, Iran, and Russia. It also assesses Turkmenistan’s future prospects for reaching additional world markets and for sustaining the markets it presently serves. Finally, the article analyzes the difficulties that Turkmenistan’s gas industry, and other Central Asia energy industries, are likely to face.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Measuring Risk in Energy Markets
Nächstes Kapitel The Influence of Economic, Financial and Political Indicators in South East Asian Electricity Markets
Fußnoten
1
For a review of the current energy geopolitical situation, see Kolb (2011).
 
2
For example, a report by Citigroup speaks of the “shale gas revolution” and the death of the “peak oil hypothesis”: Citigroup (2012). See also: Forbes (2012), Gas Strategies (2010), Stevens (2010), Yergin (2011).
 
3
Of course, LNG can move by truck or rail as well, but those quantities are much more limited than seaborne transit. Also, in addition to being liquefied, natural gas can merely be compressed and shipped by rail, truck or ship. However, compression reduces the volume of natural gas by only about a factor of 100, while liquefaction allows reduction by a factor of 600.
 
4
Compressed natural gas does have an important role to play. If gas can be piped to a facility and compressed there, the compressed gas can be used as a fuel for vehicles. This is already being done. However, compressing gas and moving it by rail or truck as a substitute for pipeline gas or LNG is not feasible due to costs.
 
5
Also, most of the water used to fracture shale returns to the surface through the well and must face disposal. One longstanding means of disposal has been to inject the used water into old hydrocarbon reservoirs, and now evidence indicates that this too can cause minor earthquakes.
 
6
For example, see McGraw (2011). McGraw’s book features a personal perspective on the impact of the shale gas revolution on his home town in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania.
 
7
Russia is also promoting other avenues by which Turkmen gas could be directed north to its Gazprom pipeline network. Notably, Russia is pushing for the Pre-Caspian pipeline, which would originate in Turkmenbashi on the eastern shore of the Caspian, run north along the shore, transit Kazakhstan, and terminate in Russia. If Russia could capture Turkmen gas through this means, it would help to frustrate the development of the so-called “Southern Corridor” aimed at getting Central Asian gas to Europe and world markets without falling under Russian control. For a discussion of this Pre-Caspian project, see: Chow and Hendrix (2010), Gazprom (no date), and Simonov (2010).
 
8
The time from groundbreaking to completion was 28 months with the construction started in July 2008 and finishing in December 2009. See CNPC (2009). The second of the dual lines was completed in late 2010.
 
9
For a discussion of the Nabucco pipeline plan and the aspirations for a Southern Corridor, see: Bahgat (2009), Chow and Hendrix (2010), Pflüger (2012), Paillard (2010) and Terterov et al. (2010).
 
10
For a discussion of the putative environmental problems with a Trans-Caspian pipeline see Pflüger (2012). The following articles discuss the Blue Stream pipeline: Schaffer (2008), Tsereteli (2005) and Terterov et al. (2010). For analyses of the Nord Stream pipeline, see: Ghaleb (2011) and Lagutina (2011).
 
11
For three treatments of these issues see: Amineh and Houweling (2007), Ipek (2009) and Zeinolabedin et al. (2011).
 
12
U. S. Energy Information Administration (2012b). For further analyses of the prospect of the TAPI pipeline, see: Gawdat Bahgat (2009). Cohen et al. (2008), Foster (2010), Lall (2010) and Lin (2011).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
The Natural Gas Revolution and Central Asia
verfasst von
Robert W. Kolb
Copyright-Jahr
2014
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Buch
Perspectives on Energy Risk

Print ISBN: 978-3-642-41595-1

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-41596-8

Copyright-Jahr: 2014

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41596-8_5