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2009 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

The Transformation of China from an Emerging Economy to a Global Powerhouse

verfasst von : James R. Barth, Gerard Caprio Jr, Triphon Phumiwasana

Erschienen in: China’s Emerging Financial Markets

Verlag: Springer US

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Abstract

Throughout the past three decades of fast growth, China has undergone tremendous structural changes in its economy and financial system. This chapter examines China's evolving financial landscape so as to assess whether it can catch up with or even drive economic growth. China has achieved remarkable growth over the past quarter of a century despite a relatively inefficient financial system. Just as the public sector around the world has not proved to be an efficient manager of enterprises, it also has not been an efficient manager of banks. A solution that would seem to work in theory would be to grow the private sector’s role in the banking system, using banks that operate on market principles as a way to continually starve inefficient enterprises of credit, while supplying credit to the productive enterprises. Finding a way to make this work in practice will require both finesse and good fortune on a scale commensurate with China’s growing importance in the world economy.

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Vorheriges Kapitel A Review of China’s Financial System and Initiatives for the Future

Nächstes Kapitel China’s Financial Sector: Contributions to Growth and Downside Risks

Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich

China ranks fourth when GDP is measured on the basis of exchange rates but second on a purchasing-power basis.

The Big Four refers to the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), the Bank of China (BOC), and the China Construction Bank (CCB). In 2007, China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) began including the Bank of Communications (BOCOM), the fifth largest bank, among state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) in their statistical reports.

China adopted a one-child policy in 1979, which has contributed to the more than eight-fold increase in GDP per capita in just less than 30 years.

GDP doubles every decade at a growth rate of 7%.

Dekle and Vandenbroucke (2006) project GDP growth at about 5.8% a year between now and 2040.

This excludes Romania and Bulgaria which became member countries in early 2007, which enlarged the EU to 27 members.

See Levine (1997, 2005).

See Appendix 1 for a comparison of China’s and India's financial systems to several other countries’.

As of this writing, China’s GDP components in 2007 still have not been released. The issue of reliability of China’s national account data is an ongoing concern. In December 2005, China substantially revised its historical GDP data upward, showing that real growth in 2004 was 10.1% instead of 9.5%. The 2004 nominal GDP was revised upward by 2.3 trillion yuan to 15.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%.

Many attribute the high household saving rate to the lack of adequate health and pension plans. According to China Money (November 7–13, 2005), only 15% of the population is covered by the country's pension system. More generally, see Kuijs (2005) for more detailed information on investment and saving in China.

Liang (2006, p. 22), however, considers investment spending to be overstated and consumption understated. He therefore considers “China's investment cycle [to be] … profitable and sustainable.”

The eastern coastal areas account for about two-thirds of GDP and have a GDP per capita that is about twice the national average, according to the China Statistical Yearbook. For more information on these disparities, see Catin et al. (2005).

For purposes of comparison, India ranks 18.

The total US trade deficit, however, was $854 billion. The Chinese government reported that trade surpluses with the US and the world are $167 billion and $270 billion in 2007, respectively.

In addition, the United States filed a compliant with the WTO in early February 2007 charging China with unfairly subsidizing exports by Chinese companies.

World Investment Report 2007, UNCTAD.

China’s Ministry of Commerce.

The QFIIs are allowed to invest in A shares (shares denominated in renminbi). There are also B shares (shares denominated in US or HK dollars) that are available to domestic (since 2002) and foreign (since 1992) investors in China's two stock exchanges. H shares, N shares, and S shares are shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, New York, or Singapore, respectively.

See US Treasury Department (2006).

World Investment Report, 2007, shows that China ranks 58th out of 141 countries in terms of outward FDI over 2004–2006. This situation may change if China redeploys its huge foreign exchange reserves away from its substantial holdings of US securities.

China allowed fully convertibility on the current account in 1996.

This is more than ten times the amount in 2000, which was $168 billion. Interestingly, Frankel (2006, p. 658), in a comment on a paper by Dooley et al. (2003), points out that in their view: “China is piling up dollars…as part of an export-led development strategy that is rational given China's need to import workable systems of finance and corporate governance.”

China's current foreign exchange reserves are 160% of its annual imports in 2007.

See Dollar and Kraay (2005) for an analysis of this issue with respect to China. Also, see Appendix 2 for a comparison China and India's international investment positions.

The PBOC also increased reserve requirements for banks several times in recent years to help curtail growth in money and credit. In the mid-2008, the reserve requirement was 17.5%.

Ye Xie, “Chinese central bank seen making a profit,” International Herald Tribune, January 7, 2007.

For example, it was the rebellion by Japanese banks against the practice of forcing them to take up government debt with below-market interest rates that helped set off the deregulation of the Japanese banking system in the early 1980s.

Unlike banks in the United States, Chinese banks earn relatively little of their total income from non-interest revenue. This trend, however, is changing rapidly; in the case of China Construction Bank, the increase was only 14.2% in 2007, from 8.95% in 2006.

For current and detailed information on the laws and regulations pertaining to the financial restructuring and reform that has taken place in China, see Barth et al. (2007).

Of course, in most countries, including in the United States, small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) typically encounter problems when trying to obtain external funding. Venture capital funds can provide the same, albeit limited, assistance in this regard.

Financial Stability Report 2007, People’s Bank of China.

See Institute of International Finance (2006).

In 2007, there were roughly 8,877 financial institutions in China, with about 8,348 being rural credit cooperatives. There were 5 state-owned commercial banks (Big Four), 3 policy-development banks, 12 joint-stock commercial banks, 124 city commercial banks, and 42 urban credit cooperatives, among other financial institutions.

Prior to China becoming a member of the WTO, foreign banks were allowed to set up representative offices in China since 1979, and foreign banks were approved to establish branches in 1981. In December 1996 and August 1998, qualified branches of foreign banks were allowed to offer RMB products. Zhu Xinqing, “Development of China Banking Industry and Restructuring Practices of BOC,” PowerPoint presentation, Chicago, IL November 4–5, 2004.

Also, beginning in 1994, the government was precluded from borrowing from the PBOC to finance any budget deficits. This helped stimulate growth in the bond market. It is reported, moreover, that China Development Bank is being considered by the government for conversion into a commercial bank. (XFN News, January 8, 2007).

For detailed information on China's laws and regulations pertaining to the financial sector, see Barth et al. (2007).

In November 2006, China said it would fulfill its WTO commitment of giving foreign banks full access to its banking market if they incorporated their China operations locally (Wall Street Journal, February 8, 2007, p. C4). This requirement is related to the plan by the Chinese government to introduce a system of deposit insurance insofar as deposits in branches outside a bank's home country can be uninsured, which is the case for branches of a US bank located outside the country.

The AMCs had a mandate when established to clean up all the NPLs they acquired within 10 years (i.e., 2008). The NPLs transferred in 1999 were made prior to 1996, and classified under the four-tier category system as being overdue for more than one year.

Foreign firms have also injected capital into Chinese banks through the acquisition of ownership shares, although the total foreign ownership in a bank is limited to less than 20% for a single investor and to less than 25% for all foreign investors.

In January 2002, a new five-category loan classification system was introduced. Under this system, commercial banks are required to classify their loans into the following 5 categories: “pass,” “special mentioned,” “sub-standard,” “doubtful,” and “loss”. A loan is classified as a “non-performing loan” if it is classified as “sub-standard”, “doubtful,” or “loss.” Also, a new provisioning system was introduced, requiring general provisions of 1% of total loans classified as pass to cover potential losses, and specific provisions of 2, 25, 50, and 100% of the amount of loans classified as “special mentioned,” sub-standard, doubtful, and loss, respectively. CBRC required that the Big Four and the joint stock commercial banks adopt this classification system from 2004 and for all banks by the end of 2005. The provisioning requirements were to be implemented by the end of 2008.

The Chinese government is well aware of this situation and was in the process of recapitalizing ABC in 2008.

As of June 2006, 71 foreign-funded banks have opened 214 operational institutions in China; in particular, 25 cities have been opened for corporate RMB business; 26 foreign financial institutions have made equity investment in 18 domestic banks totaling US$17.9 billion; 23 joint-venture fund management companies and 8 joint-stock securities companies have been established; 42 foreign entities have become QFIIs (Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, PBOC, September 21, 2006).

Of course, Citibank suffered significantly from the US subprime mortgage market meltdown and related problems that emerged in 2007.

In 2007, the total assets of CCB are $903,291; ICBC are $1,188,800; BOC are $820,198, ABC are $828,317, and BoCom are $288,920 all in USD million.

See Ong (2004).

See Dobson and Kashyap (2006).

Du and Girma (2007, p. 37) report that “[u]ntil 1998, the four state-owned commercial banks … were instructed not to lend to private enterprises.”

The French banking system used to be cited as an exception to this statement, until the massive failure of Credit Lyonnais. And the German banking system, the other exception, has been beset by inefficiency and losses in their state banks.

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Titel: The Transformation of China from an Emerging Economy to a Global Powerhouse
verfasst von: James R. Barth
Gerard Caprio Jr
Triphon Phumiwasana
Verlag: Springer US
Buch: China’s Emerging Financial Markets
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-93768-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-0-387-93769-4

Copyright-Jahr: 2009
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-93769-4_2