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Explain the basics of private equity and how it differs from public equity
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Identify the challenges of data and comparability in private equity valuation
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Analyse the ways in which private equity may create and destroy value on E, F, and S
10.1 Basics of Private Equity
Type of private equity | Outstanding (in billions of $) |
---|---|
Venture capital | 1829 |
Growth equity | 988 |
Buyout equity | 2994 |
Other | 484 |
Total private equity | 6295 |
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Financial engineering: LBOs are often debt-financed, which increases leverage and thereby disciplines managers
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Governance engineering: PE companies control the boards of their investee companies; management at investee companies gets a larger stake in the company when it goes private, to align their interests with the company (see Chap. 3)
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Operational engineering: the ratio of operating income to sales increases, but the ratio of capital expenditures (investments) to sales declines at LBOs
Type of exit | Percentage (1970–2007 period) |
---|---|
Sold to strategic buyer | 38% |
Secondary buyout | 24% |
IPO | 14% |
Other | 24% |
Total exits | 100% |
10.2 Valuation of Private Equity
Perspective in year 1 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
Sales | 0 | 2 | 50 | 200 | 400 | 520 | 624 | 749 | 824 | 890 | 890 |
Costs | –15 | –28 | –53 | –183 | –340 | –432 | –505 | –607 | –667 | –738 | –738 |
Cash flow | –15 | –26 | –3 | 17 | 60 | 88 | 119 | 142 | 156 | 151 | 151 |
CF margin | –1300% | –6% | 9% | 15% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 17% | |
WACC | 25% | TV | 658 | ||||||||
Discount factor | 0.80 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
PV of cash flow | –12 | –17 | –2 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 71 |
NPV | 176 |
Perspective in year 3 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
Sales | 0 | 2 | 50 | 200 | 400 | 520 | 624 | 749 | 824 | 890 | 890 |
Costs | –15 | –28 | –53 | –183 | –340 | –432 | –505 | –607 | –667 | –738 | –738 |
Cash flow | –15 | –26 | –3 | 17 | 60 | 88 | 119 | 142 | 156 | 151 | 151 |
CF margin | –1300% | –6% | 9% | 15% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 17% | |
WACC | 20% | TV | 840 | ||||||||
Discount factor | 0.83 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.23 | ||
PV of cash flow | –3 | 12 | 35 | 43 | 48 | 48 | 44 | 35 | 195 | ||
NPV | 456 |
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
Sales | 0 | 25 | 50 | 150 | 240 | 324 | 373 | 410 | 434 | 447 |
Costs | –60 | –45 | –58 | –141 | –209 | –275 | –309 | –344 | –369 | –385 |
Perspective in year 1 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
Sales | 0 | 25 | 50 | 150 | 240 | 324 | 373 | 410 | 434 | 447 | 447 |
Costs | –60 | –45 | –58 | –141 | –209 | –275 | –309 | –344 | –369 | –385 | –60 |
Cash flow | –60 | –20 | –8 | 9 | 31 | 49 | 64 | 66 | 65 | 62 | 62 |
CF margin | –80% | –16% | 6% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 14% | |
WACC | 30% | TV | 225 | ||||||||
Discount factor | 0.77 | 0.59 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
PV of cash flow | –46 | –12 | –4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
NPV | 5.3 |
Perspective in year 3 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
Sales | 0 | 25 | 50 | 150 | 240 | 324 | 373 | 410 | 434 | 447 | 447 |
Costs | –60 | –45 | –58 | –141 | –209 | –275 | –309 | –344 | –369 | –385 | –60 |
Cash flow | –60 | –20 | –8 | 9 | 31 | 49 | 64 | 66 | 65 | 62 | 62 |
CF margin | –80% | –16% | 6% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 14% | |
WACC | 20% | TV | 354 | ||||||||
Discount factor | 0.83 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.23 | ||
PV of cash flow | –7 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 82 | ||
NPV | 203.9 |
2023 | 2028E | Change | |
---|---|---|---|
Net debt | 730 | 380 | –350 |
Equity | 600 | 1600 | 1000 |
Enterprise Value (EPV) | 1330 | 1980 | 650 |
EBITDA | 160 | 210 | 50 |
EPV/EBITDA multiple | 8.3 | 9.4 | 1.1 |
Net debt/EBITDA | 4.6 | 1.8 | –2.8 |
Value drivers | Change | Calculation | Explanation |
---|---|---|---|
Net debt impact | 350 | Net debt reduction | |
EBITDA impact | 416 | 50*8.3 | Change in EBITDA * original multiple |
Multiple impact | 234 | 1.1*210 | Multiple expansion * new EBITDA |
Value creation | 1000 | ||
Check: rise in equity | 1000 |
Current | Change | New | Calculation | |
---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 50 | +15 | 65 | |
EPV/EBITDA multiple | 7.0 | –0.5 | 6.5 | |
Enterprise Value (EPV) | 350 | +72.5 | 422.5 | 65*6.5 = 422.5 |
Net debt | 100 | +25 | 125 | |
Equity | 250 | +47.5 | 297.5 | 422.5 – 125 = 297.5 |
Value drivers | Change | Calculation | Explanation |
---|---|---|---|
Net debt impact | –25 | Net debt increase | |
EBITDA impact | 105 | 15*7.0 | Change in EBITDA * original multiple |
Multiple impact | –32.5 | –0.5*65 | Multiple expansion * new EBITDA |
Value creation | 47.5 | ||
Check: rise in equity | 47.5 |
10.3 Impact of S and E on F in Private Equity
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Reduce median carbon intensity by 15% over the projected hold period for new control investments in the company’s flagship strategy;
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Align its public reporting with the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations;
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Enhance due diligence with a deeper focus on sustainability improvements and targets; and
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Continue to identify and invest in innovative companies that accelerate the energy transition and more sustainable business models.
10.4 Valuation of S & E and Integrated Valuation in Private Equity
10.5 Conclusions
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Buyout is a PE investment, whereby the PE company takes a majority stake in an investee company, funded with equity and loans, to take control of the company and change its strategy and operations for higher performance. There are several types of buyouts: LBOs, MBIs, and MBOs
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General partner is responsible for managing the PE fund and has a fiduciary duty to act in the sole interest of the fund’s investors
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Growth equity invests at a more mature stage of a company, sometimes just after the VC phase, where a company’s business model works well, but has not yet succeeded in growing fast
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Leveraged buyout (LBO) is a buyout using debt to leverage the investee company
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Limited partner takes a financial role in the PE company; they provide capital and pay fees to the PE company
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Management buy-in (MBI) is a PE investment, where the PE company brings in an external management team
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Management buyout (MBO) is a buyout, whereby the incumbent management team takes over, helped by the PE company
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Multiples valuation is a type of relative valuation in which an asset’s value is determined as a multiple of a financial statement metric such as profitability or book value.
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Private equity (PE) invests in private companies by means of a non-traded equity stake for a multiyear period, with the aim to make a return by improving the investee companies’ performance and exiting them at a profit
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PE company raises and advises a PE fund through two entities: (1) the General Partner (GP) and (2) the investment manager
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Value Driver Adjustments (VDA) are the adjustments made to value driver assumptions in a valuation model, based on an assessment of the company’s material ESG issues
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Venture capital (VC) invests in early stage (start-up) companies