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01-05-2016

A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain

Authors: Pelayo Arbués, José F. Baños

Published in: Transportation | Issue 3/2016

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Abstract

This paper presents an innovative approach to analyzing road vehicle freight traffic that uses a dynamic panel data specification derived from a gravity model. This dynamic approach, which has recently been employed in international goods trade models in lieu of the traditional static specification, is applied to the case of Spain using data for the countrys 15 NUTS-3 regions between 1999 and 2009. Using the system general method of moments approach, we obtained significant evidence that the flow of vehicles carrying commodities by road has a strong persistence effect when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. We also found that the quality of road transport infrastructure has a significant impact on vehicle trips. According to our findings, we suggest that this type of specification be employed in distribution models in which fixed effects and lags of the dependent variable are included to account for unobserved heterogeneity and persistence effects, respectively.

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See, among others, Cantos et al. (2005).

See Chow et al. (2010) and de Jong et al. (2012) for recent surveys of freight transport models.

Introducing more than two lags of the dependent variable produces non-significant estimates. A specification with one lag was also tested, but an econometric test failed to accept it.

We do not consider spatial dependency in transport between regions, meaning that spatial correlation, if it exists, is ignored.

The Andalusía, Aragón, Asturias, Basque Country, Castile and León, Castile-La Mancha, Cantabria, Catalonia, Extremadura, Galicia, La Rioja, Madrid, Murcia, Navarre, and Valencian Communities.

If the proportion of observations with 0 values is significant, alternative estimation methods should be considered. The Poisson fixed effects estimator, proposed by (Westerlund and Wilhelmsson 2011), could be applied here.

Arellano and Bond (1991) propose the hypothesis test of no second-order serial correlation in perturbations of the equation in first differences: E[\(\Delta {\epsilon _{it}}\),\(\Delta {\epsilon _{it-2}}\)]. This is a necessary condition for the validity of the instruments. Rejecting the null hypothesis in the AR (1) test indicates the inconsistency of the OLS estimator.

Despite these differences in the time dummies parameters, an alternative version of the models without these dummies has been estimated and the remaining explanatory variables coefficiennts have been barely affected.

The figures for each of the 225 origin-destination pairs are available upon request.

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Title: A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain
Authors: Pelayo Arbués
José F. Baños
Publication date: 01-05-2016
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Transportation / Issue 3/2016
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Electronic ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9590-5

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