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The Annals of Regional Science

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23-08-2017 | Original Paper

A model of interregional migration under the presence of natural resources: theory and evidence from Russia

Authors: Sascha Sardadvar, Elena Vakulenko

Published in: The Annals of Regional Science | Issue 2/2017

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Abstract

Internal net-migration rates in Russia are negatively correlated with regional labour shares in mining. In order to explain this phenomenon theoretically and empirically, Crozet’s (J Econ Geogr 4:439–458, 2004) theoretical model is augmented by the mining of natural resources to allow for exogenous market developments and spatially bounded production. The model is directly transformed into an econometric panel specification and tested for 78 Russian regions for the observation period 2004–2010. The empirical results show that the mining of natural resources attracts internal migrants, while regional price-indexes have unexpected positive effects.

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The share was 44% in 2012, reaching its peak of 47% in 2007; data source: Rosstat.

In contrast to the present paper’s empirical parts, which consider 78 Russian regions, the regions referred to in this section correspond to the much larger “economic regions”, as contemporary studies on Soviet and post Soviet migration typically focus on this classification.

In 1990, GDP per capita stood at 3840 US dollars at current prices or 161,169 roubles at 2005 prices, in 1998 GDP per capita stood at 1832 US dollars at current prices or 92,830 roubles at 2005 prices (data source: United Nations).

Data source: Rosstat.

Available from http://www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/archiv/index.php (accessed 20-January-2015).

Note that since the shares of migrants leaving a particular region in a particular year necessarily adds to one, the observations are independent across groups (clusters) but not within groups. For this reason the present paper’s estimations use clustered standard errors which are robust to within cluster correlation (Stock and Watson 2008). Hence, the coefficients are efficient despite dependent observations within groups.

In addition, \(\pi _t \) indirectly controls for global economic events such as the recession after 2007, as these are related to world-market commodities price-changes. Technically, a statistically significant \(\pi \) does not necessarily have to be positive to capture effects of international developments on Russia’s internal migration, although in the present case it is.

In “Appendix C”, Table 6 displays additional results where world-market commodities price-change enters the regression specification explicitly, with the respective coefficients being positive and highly significant. “Appendix C” also includes a derivation of the respective econometric specification and a brief interpretation.

The correlation coefficient ranges between 0.50 (2004) and 0.46 (2010).

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Title: A model of interregional migration under the presence of natural resources: theory and evidence from Russia
Authors: Sascha Sardadvar
Elena Vakulenko
Publication date: 23-08-2017
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in: The Annals of Regional Science / Issue 2/2017
Print ISSN: 0570-1864
Electronic ISSN: 1432-0592
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-017-0844-3

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