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2024 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

A Stochastic Approach Based on Rational Decision-Making for Analyzing Software Engineering Project Status

Author : Hannes Salin

Published in: Product-Focused Software Process Improvement

Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland

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Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to project status prediction in software engineering, based on unobservable states of decision-making processes, utilizing Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). By establishing HMM structures and leveraging the Rational Decision Making model (RDM), we encoded underlying project conditions; observed project data from a software engineering organization were utilized to estimate model parameters via the Baum-Welch algorithm. The developed HMMs, four project-specific models, were subsequently tested with empirical data, demonstrating their predictive potential. However, a generalized, aggregated model did not show any sufficient accuracy. Model development and experiments were made in Python. Our approach presents preliminary work and a pathway for understanding and forecasting project dynamics in software development environments.

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Title: A Stochastic Approach Based on Rational Decision-Making for Analyzing Software Engineering Project Status
Author: Hannes Salin
Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland
Book: Product-Focused Software Process Improvement
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-49265-5

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-031-49266-2

Copyright Year: 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49266-2_12

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